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Party rifts and looming general election
Published: Sunday | July 17, 2011
Golding
Simpson Miller
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Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Writer
PRIME MINISTER Bruce Golding and Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller are set to face some rigid challenges within their parties as they prepare to mount an effective election campaign.
Persistent issues of disunity confront both leaders - Golding of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and Simpson Miller of the People's National Party (PNP).
With the national polls constitutionally due, at most, 14 months from now, both Golding and Simpson Miller are set to square off as leaders the second time around.
JLP insiders told The Sunday Gleaner that the Coke extradition affair that threatened to split the party in 2010 continues to create pronounced rifts in both party and Government.
At the same time, a sceptical public keeps watch on the Peter Phillips-Simpson Miller truce with jaundiced eyes.
Phillips has sought to dispatch two acrimonious internal election campaigns in the past. But even so, a recently published WikiLeaks cable threatens to evoke old emotions.
Political analyst Shalman Scott has played down any significance of the protracted rifts in the parties, so close to a general election.
Scott is of the view that members of both political parties will turn their attention to the common foe - the rival party.
General secretary of the PNP Peter Bunting agrees.
He stresses that his party has long moved past divisive issues that had all but ripped apart the PNP in 2008.
Bunting claims that those wounds have healed and the PNP is in a healthy state. "The entire party is seized with the objective of rescuing the country from an incompetent administration," he asserts.
Similarly, general secretary of the JLP, Aundré Franklin, flatly dismissed suggestions that there is any rift in the JLP.
Upset over Manatt
However, Franklin conceded that persons in his party were upset when decisions on the Manatt-Dudus matter were not made as they anticipated.
"What happened was that persons, depending on how matters were dealt with, have different opinions but at the end of the day, all persons are on board and committed," asserted Franklin. "In reality, we all have a space and a voice within the party and we all have work to do within the party."
Already, both political parties are feverishly engineering campaign strategies.
Political analyst Hume Johnson predicts that both leaders will shrug off the criticisms, ignore the people's desire for reform and better governance and launch a pompous, self-involved campaign premised on the weaknesses of the other rather than outline a progressive agenda and philosophy from which the people can draw confidence.
Phillips, Simpson Miller's, former arch-rival, has been designated the PNP's campaign director.
Similarly, Karl Samuda, the man who sources say fell out with Golding in the heat of the Manatt-Dudus debacle, is the head of the party's campaign committee.
To hammer home his point, Franklin argued that there is a perception being held by observers that Samuda is not on board. "In fact, Mr Samuda is responsible for the entire campaign of the JLP … he has a whole slew of activities to consider at this time."
But notwithstanding the rhetoric, there are indications that the ghosts of the past continue to haunt the parties.
To make matters worse, poll findings show that a disaffected populace is not buying too much into the rhetoric of the political leaders.
Golding is viewed as a staid, articulate leader; Simpson Miller, as a bubbly, charismatic extrovert.
Both are regarded as extremely sensitive and thin-skinned.
The prime minister's dispassionate take-it-or-leave-it approach has alienated many Labourites.
Johnson is of the view that Golding and the JLP will enter the next election with severely weakened confidence in Golding's integrity, credibility and moral authority to lead, occasioned by the Dudus extradition saga and widespread rejection by the citizenry of the findings of the Manatt enquiry.
She predicts that the prime minister's refusal to accept responsibility for wrongdoing and the continued failure to submit to levels of accountability and run an open government in which citizens can have confidence and trust will cause even more disaffection by voters.
Many PNP functionaries suggest that Simpson Miller's bane is her over-emotional stance whenever she feels slighted.
Johnson says, despite Simpson Miller's improved showing in recent polls on the issue of leadership, and despite the fact that her likeability rating remains high, she is not as formidable and competent a leader as she could be.
"I believe that although the PNP speaks of a reform agenda, Portia Simpson Miller has not managed to reform the party," asserted Johnson.
She contends that this accounts for weaknesses identified during the post-2007 election assessments, and creates a strong, united party ready to resume the mantle of leadership.
Golding's 'brash' approach to leadership has irked many of his former loyalists in the JLP while Simpson Miller's 'questionable capacity' to govern continues to bother a significant number of Comrades.
Even at this stage, many stalwarts in both parties are still in favour of leadership replacements.
The conservative Andrew Holness and the more experienced Phillips have emerged as likely successors in the JLP and PNP, respectively.
Doesn't matter
But Scott maintains that none of this matters during an impending election. He cites the bitterly fought internal election between Michael Manley and attorney Vivian Blake for the presidency of the PNP in 1967.
Manley went on to win the 1972 general election, extended the olive branch and named Blake to the Cabinet.
Scott notes that P.J. Patterson followed suit after another acrimonious internal contest in 1992 with Simpson Miller.
Patterson appointed Simpson Miller as a senior government minister, before going on to win the general election a year later.
Simpson Miller retained Phillips as national security minister, after defeating him and two other candidates - Dr Karl Blythe and Dr Omar Davies - in the 2006 presidential election.
However, bitterly divided factions widened the rift in the party and Simpson Miller lost the election a year later.
Experts agree that it was not the problems in the PNP in 2006, but the tardiness on the part of Simpson Miller, who enjoyed immense popularity, before squandering much of it, which cost her the election.
Scott predicts that with the election so close, the overwhelming desire for state power will minimise the feelings of discontent and magnify the greater prize - an electoral victory.
"I am not expecting any wholesale fallout because of differences or grievance that may exist within the parties which is a natural part of their functions and structure," asserts Scott.
He suggests that temperament will be a major factor in getting members mobilised. "How well these organisations will be able to reconcile their differences will be dependent on the success (at the polls)."
Scott submits that the timing to facilitate any reconciliation will be another important factor. " … And as the election draws closer, members will be more amenable to cool down the temperature and to create an appearance of unity and solidarity to impress the electorate that they are more suitable to be elected."
But guided by the pronouncements from many who are close to the internal workings of the parties, the personalities within the two major political parties are preparing for the election campaign season somewhat divided.
Golding continues to be haunted by the ghost of the Coke extradition debacle supported by the ill-fated Manatt, Phelps & Phillips involvement.
The JLP strenuously declares that the issue has been laid to rest, but insiders are adamant that it is alive and well within the party.
Well-placed insiders assert that Golding is a lonely leader.
There are reports out of the party that many of his loyalists, once dubbed the reformists - who helped to usher him into power and are sorely displeased with his leadership - revel at the thought of him calling it a day.
Advantage Golding
Scott believes that Golding is at an advantage because he is the prime minister. "There are people in the party who are angry with Golding; but when you are in government and you are the prime minister, you have a leverage because everybody is looking to the prime minister for placement inside the party administration and the Government."
However, political analyst Richard 'Dickie' Crawford agrees that the issue that continues to haunt the JLP - the Manatt, Phelps & Phillips disaffection - is likely to continue and perhaps become an even bigger problem for the party and Golding because Coke's trial in New York is about to begin and no one can predict when it may end.
Crawford notes that the trial has already been gaining much coverage as Coke's attorneys seem prepared to challenge the legality of the entire action by the US State Department. "We can expect a vigorous response from the prosecution to protect their case and, therefore, further revelations may reveal more political problems for the party and Government over the coming year, which is now regarded as election year," said Crawford.
"Already, there is some amount of discord in the party over the Manatt, Phelps & Phillips issue and it is believed that this led to the downplaying of Karl Samuda and General Secretary Aundré Franklin," said Crawford. "Added to this, Mr Golding also has the responsibility of running the Government and is further handicapped by extraordinary difficulties facing at least two MPs, James Robertson and Joseph Hibbert."
Unlike Golding, Simpson Miller with her albeit diminishing loyal faction, as well as her popularity (also diminishing according to poll results) to counter those who support her rival, Phillips.
Scott is of the view that political parties are not monasteries and will inevitably attract differing opinions and tensions.
He notes that a truce of sorts has been forged between Phillips and Simpson Miller, but the polls show that a sceptical public and the bulk of the populace are questioning the sustainability of such a relationship.
Just how both leaders play their hands among party faithfuls in the coming months, is left to be seen.
- gary.spaulding@gleanerjm.com
Simpson Miller is viewed as a bubbly, charismatic extrovert.
Both are regarded as extremely sensitive and thin-skinned.
Golding is viewed as a staid, articulate leader.
Both are regarded as extremely sensitive and thin-skinned.
Published: Sunday | July 17, 2011
Golding
Simpson Miller
1 2 >
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Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Writer
PRIME MINISTER Bruce Golding and Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller are set to face some rigid challenges within their parties as they prepare to mount an effective election campaign.
Persistent issues of disunity confront both leaders - Golding of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and Simpson Miller of the People's National Party (PNP).
With the national polls constitutionally due, at most, 14 months from now, both Golding and Simpson Miller are set to square off as leaders the second time around.
JLP insiders told The Sunday Gleaner that the Coke extradition affair that threatened to split the party in 2010 continues to create pronounced rifts in both party and Government.
At the same time, a sceptical public keeps watch on the Peter Phillips-Simpson Miller truce with jaundiced eyes.
Phillips has sought to dispatch two acrimonious internal election campaigns in the past. But even so, a recently published WikiLeaks cable threatens to evoke old emotions.
Political analyst Shalman Scott has played down any significance of the protracted rifts in the parties, so close to a general election.
Scott is of the view that members of both political parties will turn their attention to the common foe - the rival party.
General secretary of the PNP Peter Bunting agrees.
He stresses that his party has long moved past divisive issues that had all but ripped apart the PNP in 2008.
Bunting claims that those wounds have healed and the PNP is in a healthy state. "The entire party is seized with the objective of rescuing the country from an incompetent administration," he asserts.
Similarly, general secretary of the JLP, Aundré Franklin, flatly dismissed suggestions that there is any rift in the JLP.
Upset over Manatt
However, Franklin conceded that persons in his party were upset when decisions on the Manatt-Dudus matter were not made as they anticipated.
"What happened was that persons, depending on how matters were dealt with, have different opinions but at the end of the day, all persons are on board and committed," asserted Franklin. "In reality, we all have a space and a voice within the party and we all have work to do within the party."
Already, both political parties are feverishly engineering campaign strategies.
Political analyst Hume Johnson predicts that both leaders will shrug off the criticisms, ignore the people's desire for reform and better governance and launch a pompous, self-involved campaign premised on the weaknesses of the other rather than outline a progressive agenda and philosophy from which the people can draw confidence.
Phillips, Simpson Miller's, former arch-rival, has been designated the PNP's campaign director.
Similarly, Karl Samuda, the man who sources say fell out with Golding in the heat of the Manatt-Dudus debacle, is the head of the party's campaign committee.
To hammer home his point, Franklin argued that there is a perception being held by observers that Samuda is not on board. "In fact, Mr Samuda is responsible for the entire campaign of the JLP … he has a whole slew of activities to consider at this time."
But notwithstanding the rhetoric, there are indications that the ghosts of the past continue to haunt the parties.
To make matters worse, poll findings show that a disaffected populace is not buying too much into the rhetoric of the political leaders.
Golding is viewed as a staid, articulate leader; Simpson Miller, as a bubbly, charismatic extrovert.
Both are regarded as extremely sensitive and thin-skinned.
The prime minister's dispassionate take-it-or-leave-it approach has alienated many Labourites.
Johnson is of the view that Golding and the JLP will enter the next election with severely weakened confidence in Golding's integrity, credibility and moral authority to lead, occasioned by the Dudus extradition saga and widespread rejection by the citizenry of the findings of the Manatt enquiry.
She predicts that the prime minister's refusal to accept responsibility for wrongdoing and the continued failure to submit to levels of accountability and run an open government in which citizens can have confidence and trust will cause even more disaffection by voters.
Many PNP functionaries suggest that Simpson Miller's bane is her over-emotional stance whenever she feels slighted.
Johnson says, despite Simpson Miller's improved showing in recent polls on the issue of leadership, and despite the fact that her likeability rating remains high, she is not as formidable and competent a leader as she could be.
"I believe that although the PNP speaks of a reform agenda, Portia Simpson Miller has not managed to reform the party," asserted Johnson.
She contends that this accounts for weaknesses identified during the post-2007 election assessments, and creates a strong, united party ready to resume the mantle of leadership.
Golding's 'brash' approach to leadership has irked many of his former loyalists in the JLP while Simpson Miller's 'questionable capacity' to govern continues to bother a significant number of Comrades.
Even at this stage, many stalwarts in both parties are still in favour of leadership replacements.
The conservative Andrew Holness and the more experienced Phillips have emerged as likely successors in the JLP and PNP, respectively.
Doesn't matter
But Scott maintains that none of this matters during an impending election. He cites the bitterly fought internal election between Michael Manley and attorney Vivian Blake for the presidency of the PNP in 1967.
Manley went on to win the 1972 general election, extended the olive branch and named Blake to the Cabinet.
Scott notes that P.J. Patterson followed suit after another acrimonious internal contest in 1992 with Simpson Miller.
Patterson appointed Simpson Miller as a senior government minister, before going on to win the general election a year later.
Simpson Miller retained Phillips as national security minister, after defeating him and two other candidates - Dr Karl Blythe and Dr Omar Davies - in the 2006 presidential election.
However, bitterly divided factions widened the rift in the party and Simpson Miller lost the election a year later.
Experts agree that it was not the problems in the PNP in 2006, but the tardiness on the part of Simpson Miller, who enjoyed immense popularity, before squandering much of it, which cost her the election.
Scott predicts that with the election so close, the overwhelming desire for state power will minimise the feelings of discontent and magnify the greater prize - an electoral victory.
"I am not expecting any wholesale fallout because of differences or grievance that may exist within the parties which is a natural part of their functions and structure," asserts Scott.
He suggests that temperament will be a major factor in getting members mobilised. "How well these organisations will be able to reconcile their differences will be dependent on the success (at the polls)."
Scott submits that the timing to facilitate any reconciliation will be another important factor. " … And as the election draws closer, members will be more amenable to cool down the temperature and to create an appearance of unity and solidarity to impress the electorate that they are more suitable to be elected."
But guided by the pronouncements from many who are close to the internal workings of the parties, the personalities within the two major political parties are preparing for the election campaign season somewhat divided.
Golding continues to be haunted by the ghost of the Coke extradition debacle supported by the ill-fated Manatt, Phelps & Phillips involvement.
The JLP strenuously declares that the issue has been laid to rest, but insiders are adamant that it is alive and well within the party.
Well-placed insiders assert that Golding is a lonely leader.
There are reports out of the party that many of his loyalists, once dubbed the reformists - who helped to usher him into power and are sorely displeased with his leadership - revel at the thought of him calling it a day.
Advantage Golding
Scott believes that Golding is at an advantage because he is the prime minister. "There are people in the party who are angry with Golding; but when you are in government and you are the prime minister, you have a leverage because everybody is looking to the prime minister for placement inside the party administration and the Government."
However, political analyst Richard 'Dickie' Crawford agrees that the issue that continues to haunt the JLP - the Manatt, Phelps & Phillips disaffection - is likely to continue and perhaps become an even bigger problem for the party and Golding because Coke's trial in New York is about to begin and no one can predict when it may end.
Crawford notes that the trial has already been gaining much coverage as Coke's attorneys seem prepared to challenge the legality of the entire action by the US State Department. "We can expect a vigorous response from the prosecution to protect their case and, therefore, further revelations may reveal more political problems for the party and Government over the coming year, which is now regarded as election year," said Crawford.
"Already, there is some amount of discord in the party over the Manatt, Phelps & Phillips issue and it is believed that this led to the downplaying of Karl Samuda and General Secretary Aundré Franklin," said Crawford. "Added to this, Mr Golding also has the responsibility of running the Government and is further handicapped by extraordinary difficulties facing at least two MPs, James Robertson and Joseph Hibbert."
Unlike Golding, Simpson Miller with her albeit diminishing loyal faction, as well as her popularity (also diminishing according to poll results) to counter those who support her rival, Phillips.
Scott is of the view that political parties are not monasteries and will inevitably attract differing opinions and tensions.
He notes that a truce of sorts has been forged between Phillips and Simpson Miller, but the polls show that a sceptical public and the bulk of the populace are questioning the sustainability of such a relationship.
Just how both leaders play their hands among party faithfuls in the coming months, is left to be seen.
- gary.spaulding@gleanerjm.com
- Simpson Miller
Simpson Miller is viewed as a bubbly, charismatic extrovert.
Both are regarded as extremely sensitive and thin-skinned.
- Golding
Golding is viewed as a staid, articulate leader.
Both are regarded as extremely sensitive and thin-skinned.
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