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With the election wind blowing across Jamaica, the Budget Debate in April 2007 gave the party leaders a chance to outline their platforms and they did. Most Jamaicans accepted the presentations as part of the election campaign and the US Embassy in Kingston did its analyses and sent a cable dated May 11, 2007 to Washington. The Gleaner now reproduces that cable which has been edited for libel and length.
UNCLASS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 000705
1. Summary: Each year, the Budget Debates captivate Jamaicans as each party presents its vision for the country, thinly veiled as a presentation of the Budget for the fiscal year. With elections due to be called by October 2007, this year was expected to be particularly grandiose. The Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) emphasised job creation under the slogan, "Is it time for a change?" while the ruling People's National Party (PNP) made generous promises without specifying how they would be financed. End summary.
Opposition on the Offensive
2. (U) The Leader of the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party, Bruce Golding, set out a Budget that was designed as an election manifesto. It showed a clear grasp of the key challenges facing the country, but more importantly, spoke directly to the urban and rural poor, a group that the JLP has failed to capture in the past.
3. (U) Golding made much use of Jamaican patois, a common tactic among politicians looking to appeal to the poor demographic. Typically, the JLP is seen as the party of the middle-class intelligentsia, less populist than the ruling People's National Party. Knowing that he has their vote secured, Golding wanted to move beyond this constituency. In a similar vein, he quoted several times from the Bible and popular song lyrics, employing a trademark tactic of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (PSM).
4. (U) Golding's speech also hammered the record of the PNP, which has been in power for 18 years. He drew a grim picture of life under PNP rule, noting that in the 10 years from 1997, Jamaica had grown by a total of only 9.6 per cent - only Haiti has suffered a more anemic rate.
6. (U) Being a tour d'horizon of Jamaica, however, the speech was short on details of how his measures would be implemented, and in some areas presented a danger of contradiction.
For example, Golding noted Jamaica's debt burden and its pervasive crime, both of which stifle growth. But in the same speech, he called for eliminating hospital fees for diagnostic services, abolishing secondary school fees, and injecting increased funds into the police force. Less clear was how he intended to fund such measures without the fiscal deficit skyrocketing.
Portia Rallies the Poor
8. (U) Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, by contrast, presented a poorly prepared, reactive Budget. As expected, it has been characterised in the media as a "bag of goodies" Budget that was designed to woo voters with promises of handouts and benefits, without offering any new tax measures to pay for them.
It lacked a cohesive framework and vision, instead merely listing items that would be offered to the electorate.
9. (U) Chief among these, and the one most closely scrutinised in the days since her presentation, is the abolition of all hospital fees.
18. It became obvious, however, that her flagship announcement had been hastily prepared after Golding's speech. In a post-speech press conference, PSM was unable to explain which fees would be exempted, or any other details of the measure.
11. (SBU) PSM's promises, if they materialise, will carry enormous fiscal implications. A ministry of finance official,, confirmed that few of the promises (most notably the hospital fees) had been factored into the actual Budget, and thus there would have to be a revision of the estimate of the fiscal deficit.
Comment
13. (SBU) This year's Budget Debate can best be seen as the two parties' early election manifestos. Both contained promises of assistance and relief for the poor, whose votes will be the key to victory. Sadly, however, the Budgets bear no resemblance to reality, which will be revealed after the elections. It seems that, this year at least, Jamaica is living up to its characterisation by a former US ambassador, who noted that "Jamaicans applaud announcements, not implementation."
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UNCLASS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 000705
1. Summary: Each year, the Budget Debates captivate Jamaicans as each party presents its vision for the country, thinly veiled as a presentation of the Budget for the fiscal year. With elections due to be called by October 2007, this year was expected to be particularly grandiose. The Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) emphasised job creation under the slogan, "Is it time for a change?" while the ruling People's National Party (PNP) made generous promises without specifying how they would be financed. End summary.
Opposition on the Offensive
2. (U) The Leader of the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party, Bruce Golding, set out a Budget that was designed as an election manifesto. It showed a clear grasp of the key challenges facing the country, but more importantly, spoke directly to the urban and rural poor, a group that the JLP has failed to capture in the past.
3. (U) Golding made much use of Jamaican patois, a common tactic among politicians looking to appeal to the poor demographic. Typically, the JLP is seen as the party of the middle-class intelligentsia, less populist than the ruling People's National Party. Knowing that he has their vote secured, Golding wanted to move beyond this constituency. In a similar vein, he quoted several times from the Bible and popular song lyrics, employing a trademark tactic of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (PSM).
4. (U) Golding's speech also hammered the record of the PNP, which has been in power for 18 years. He drew a grim picture of life under PNP rule, noting that in the 10 years from 1997, Jamaica had grown by a total of only 9.6 per cent - only Haiti has suffered a more anemic rate.
6. (U) Being a tour d'horizon of Jamaica, however, the speech was short on details of how his measures would be implemented, and in some areas presented a danger of contradiction.
For example, Golding noted Jamaica's debt burden and its pervasive crime, both of which stifle growth. But in the same speech, he called for eliminating hospital fees for diagnostic services, abolishing secondary school fees, and injecting increased funds into the police force. Less clear was how he intended to fund such measures without the fiscal deficit skyrocketing.
Portia Rallies the Poor
8. (U) Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, by contrast, presented a poorly prepared, reactive Budget. As expected, it has been characterised in the media as a "bag of goodies" Budget that was designed to woo voters with promises of handouts and benefits, without offering any new tax measures to pay for them.
It lacked a cohesive framework and vision, instead merely listing items that would be offered to the electorate.
9. (U) Chief among these, and the one most closely scrutinised in the days since her presentation, is the abolition of all hospital fees.
18. It became obvious, however, that her flagship announcement had been hastily prepared after Golding's speech. In a post-speech press conference, PSM was unable to explain which fees would be exempted, or any other details of the measure.
11. (SBU) PSM's promises, if they materialise, will carry enormous fiscal implications. A ministry of finance official,, confirmed that few of the promises (most notably the hospital fees) had been factored into the actual Budget, and thus there would have to be a revision of the estimate of the fiscal deficit.
Comment
13. (SBU) This year's Budget Debate can best be seen as the two parties' early election manifestos. Both contained promises of assistance and relief for the poor, whose votes will be the key to victory. Sadly, however, the Budgets bear no resemblance to reality, which will be revealed after the elections. It seems that, this year at least, Jamaica is living up to its characterisation by a former US ambassador, who noted that "Jamaicans applaud announcements, not implementation."
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2...ad/lead22.html