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  • To HL and others interested in investment talk

    Back in early 2006, I sent this email to a prominent poster here. I cant recall exactly, but Siler was soemthing like $10-12 then. I just saw that it reach $49 an ounce now!

    The stock market looked peaked and perhaps silver still has a long way to go...

    ===========================

    You have dealers in Delaware where you can buy the physical metals with no tax.
    I am not sure you want to have Unc Sam know you business when it comes to gold as rumour has it that they will confiscate like they did in 1933, since the Treasury is bare.
    You can buy gold and silver stocks like NEM and PAAS, as well as buy electronic gold on the Gold ETF thru your broker. Rumours of the formation of a silver ETF abound, but is not yet a reality.
    Check out sites like:
    http://www.silver-investor.com/
    http://www.gold-eagle.com/
    http://www.zealllc.com/2002/gold101.htm
    http://www.goldstockanalyst.com/
    http://www.raregold.com/r-home7.htm
    http://www.strategicinvestment.com/ pay site
    http://www.investmentrarities.com/tb-archives.html
    www.financialsenseonline.com

    If you are real paranoid, read this:
    April 4, 2004
    BUYING SILVER BULLION
    In a recent posting, Eddy recommended that people acquire some silver, as he believes that it will skyrocket as the economy comes crashing down. I don’t know what the price of silver will do, but I have some information for people who are interested in buying silver.
    A number of private companies now mint one-ounce (by "ounce" I mean troy ounce) rounds of .999 purity silver. In larger quantities and by shopping around on the Internet, you can buy these today for silver’s spot price (which today is $8.12) plus about 60 cents per ounce, with shipping and insurance included. Typically, the dealer will buy them back at the spot price, or very close to it. In a rapidly moving silver market, I would expect that you should be able to continue to get a good price for these. I am not recommending any dealers, but you may want to check out www.tulving.com or www.ajpm.com.
    Some people prefer one-ounce silver Eagles, minted by the US Government, which are very similar to the privately minted rounds, above. These are very nice, but currently cost about $1.00 to $1.25 more per ounce than their privately minted counterparts. Although they have dates, most have no collector’s value.
    "Junk" silver coins (circulated American dimes, quarters, and half dollars minted in 1964 or before) are sold in bags containing $1000 face value, or $100 bags at a higher unit price. These are universally recognized, virtually never counterfeited, and provide silver in small increments (a silver dime has .0715 ounces of silver). These give you some benefits of silver ownership, and in an emergency, can easily be bought and sold. You can now buy them for about their melt value, sometimes less.
    But expect to sell your junk silver at a discount – maybe a big discount – to its melt value. If silver reaches $50 per ounce, do you want to sell your junk silver for $30 per ounce? In today’s market, you might sell it for a 5-7% discount from spot. In the final stages of the 1980 silver bull market, the discount was close to 40%, mostly because the price per ounce the coin dealers received wasn’t fixed until after the smelting process, and this took several weeks.

    Common date, circulated Morgan and Peace silver dollars (.77 ounces each), currently sell for about 50-90% above their melt value. Collectors have little interest in them, and in a roaring bull market, these will probably be melted down for their silver content, just as many were in 1980. These would then, ounce for ounce, be worth no more than your junk silver coins.
    The 40% silver "clad" Kennedy half dollars were minted from 1965 to 1970. These cost about the same per ounce of silver as the 90% coins, but their extra weight and bulk makes them less desirable, and harder to sell.
    Avoid 100-ounce silver bars like the plague. It is relatively easy to take a genuine 100-ounce silver bar, bore out most of the silver through holes in the sides, fill the holes with lead, and seal the edges with silver. Neatly done, this is almost impossible to detect without sawing the bar in half. No matter how genuine your bar is, you may find it difficult to sell, especially as the price of silver rises and counterfeiting becomes more common. And the 10-ounce bars usually cost as much per ounce as the more popular silver rounds, but force you to buy and sell in increments of 10 ounces.
    Don’t confuse buying rare or uncirculated silver coins with investing in silver. Rare coins are primarily collectibles, like baseball cards. Many people have lost their life savings learning this the hard way, and many precious metal dealers will try to steer you away from bullion and toward collectible coins, for which they have large markups. You should avoid such coins, unless you are a hobbyist, with money to throw away. In a real depression or emergency, few people will have money to spend on rare coins.
    Be leery of companies that offer to store your silver or gold for you. While this may be very convenient, many companies that were in this business years ago fleeced their customers. And if the government ever "calls in" silver as they did gold in 1933, expect them to go to these companies, first.
    In most cases, you should take physical delivery of the silver, but make sure you have a secure place to store your silver. Don't tell your friends and neighbors what you bought. 100 one-ounce rounds weigh about 7 lbs, and some metal detectors are good to depths of 20 feet or more. If nobody suspects you are hiding anything, metal detectors should not be a problem, anyway.
    Remember that virtually ALL personal property can be confiscated by federal or state government agencies, for any reason or no reason. Don’t make it easy for them.
    =============================================
    You should also think about investing in energy.

  • #2
    Willi your claim to fame in (my book) was before 2006 when you touted Gold as the premier investment. I would surely have a few shillings if I had followed your advice.

    That silver is also a good investment vehicle is no surprise. Lots of people are nervous in putting significant investment in this volatile market.

    On a personal note, and as an example, I had a few shares in a company...ticker SHAW. (SHAW was a part of my energy investment).

    SHAW build Nuclear Power plants and related energy manufacturing products. .......................

    Just days before Japan's calamity...(and for reasons still unclear to me), I sold all my shares in the company. Then Japan happened. SHAW stocks dropped like a ripe breadfruit...........

    So your point that stable investments like gold and silver are the way to go. I fully agree Willi!
    The only time TRUTH will hurt you...is if you ignore it long enough

    HL

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by HL View Post
      Willi your claim to fame in (my book) was before 2006 when you touted Gold as the premier investment. I would surely have a few shillings if I had followed your advice.

      That silver is also a good investment vehicle is no surprise. Lots of people are nervous in putting significant investment in this volatile market.

      On a personal note, and as an example, I had a few shares in a company...ticker SHAW. (SHAW was a part of my energy investment).

      SHAW build Nuclear Power plants and related energy manufacturing products. .......................

      Just days before Japan's calamity...(and for reasons still unclear to me), I sold all my shares in the company. Then Japan happened. SHAW stocks dropped like a ripe breadfruit...........

      So your point that stable investments like gold and silver are the way to go. I fully agree Willi!
      I was very lucky. I bought silver a few weeks ago when it was at $34. I was kicking myself because I had started the process when it was at about $29 and the calamity in Egypt happened causing a huge movement. I am happy I did now, but I wish I had done more. I bought Gold about 2 years ago, but not enough, but since then, the price has doubled. The problem I have now with Silver/Gold is not when to buy, but when to sell. Willi, what do you think is the right time to sell?
      "H.L & Brick .....mi deh pan di wagon (Man City)" - X_____ http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/forum1/showthread.php?p=378365&highlight=City+Liverpool#p ost378365

      X DESCRIBES HIMSELF - Stop masquerading as if you have the clubs interest at heart, you are a fraud, always was and always will be in any and every thing that you present...

      Comment


      • #4
        "Stable investments like gold and silver" might be a bit of an exaggeration.

        Like any other asset class it has its cycles. From 1980 to 2000 it was down and down big. Thats twenty loooong years.

        Gold has been my best investment over the last decade by far, but there will be a time to sell. I sold half of mine a year ago and i am still comfortable with that decision.

        I will hold on to the other half for a while longer, waiting to see the dumb money rush in big time so I can unload. Its almost time to get into real estate since everybody now hates that asset class.

        I'll probably sell at 1800-2000 regardless if it happens sooner than i think.
        "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

        Comment


        • #5
          When to sell or to buy...that's the eternal question Paul......

          Please...please email me if you get the answer. i will do the same for you.
          The only time TRUTH will hurt you...is if you ignore it long enough

          HL

          Comment


          • #6
            Gold will preserve your wealth...SILVER will make you rich!

            Comment


            • #7
              Fundamentals in the US and global economy is the key for me. Precious metals is a long term play in my book...buy and forget kinda thing. It wont be a stright line up however and we are due for corrections in those markets soon, as they my be temporarily overheated

              Given ongoing uncertainties in the US and talk of relative economic collapse (wont happen, i hope) the metals still have nuff upside.

              For me, Gold can go anywhere north of $2000 and ounce and given the histrical Gold/silver ratio of 15 to 1, Silver can head north of $130 ad ounce.

              Silver is both MONEY and a commodity. it does get consumed in industrial processes, unlike gold. This means that it has pull from TWO sides.

              A car in the $5 silver days had about $10 -15 of silver in it. Even at 10 x the price, its only $150, so automakers will still use silver as it is a near insignificant expense in the overall car price. If it reaches over say $500, then you may see some resistance, but silver really has no good subsitute.

              Comment


              • #8
                Gold does not go up or down. CURRENCY fluctuates around gold. Gold has inherent value, paper money does not. Its all about confidence and some market manipulation.

                If you doubt market manipulation, just check out how all the major central banks sold off their gold reserves in about 1999/2000 (at less than $300). Me and my like minded friends thought they were crazy and would live to regret it, but those politicians long gone and left the probs to the current generation.

                On top of that, there is fraud at the Govt level. Chin sold adulterated gold (tungsten) to some African or middle east country like a year or so ago. i believe I posted the article here.

                Having said all this, its been years that I followed this market as for me the play was clear...a no-brainer really. Of course the higher prices go, the more tricky to predict. Still and all the outlook for paper does not seem rosy from this vantage point.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Well, as di next best substitute, we can discuss here from time to time as we get more data points...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Not sure if I buy that totally, Willi. Yes there is manipulation for sure and paper money is basically an IOU and nothing more, but the price of gold on any particular day is surely not necessarily its inherent value.

                    In a purely non-speculative market yes, currency fluctuates around gold, but just like anything else that is traded, wether it be stocks, real estate, or even tulips, if people think it will make them rich because it will be worth more tomorrow, they will drive up the price to unrealistic levels.
                    "‎It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men" - Frederick Douglass

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Willi View Post
                      Gold will preserve your wealth...SILVER will make you rich!
                      Before I go to my wife and tell her that we should liquidate all our assets and sink them into silver ("because some guy on the reggaeboyzsc.com forum says so" ), what is your 12 month and 36 month outlook on both silver and gold. Help me educate myself as that is the period I am most interested in. And based just on your outlook, am I to understand that you think silver could triple in the next 2 years? If I understand him right, Islandman thinks that gold at $2000 is probably where you jump off, do you agree?
                      "H.L & Brick .....mi deh pan di wagon (Man City)" - X_____ http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/forum1/showthread.php?p=378365&highlight=City+Liverpool#p ost378365

                      X DESCRIBES HIMSELF - Stop masquerading as if you have the clubs interest at heart, you are a fraud, always was and always will be in any and every thing that you present...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Somewhat true, but a trade has 2 sides. What you use to buy gold, nuh paper?

                        In times past and times to come, you may be right, but in recent times, its the value of the paper that has been fluctuatiing.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Never put all yuh eggs in ANY one basket. PM at more than 30% of your net worth may be pushing it.

                          I can tell yuh definitely what the exit price should be now. What is ART? I cant tell you but you know it when you see it.

                          Exit price is dependent on a lot of things, luck included.

                          At the moment for me, I would reevaluate any position in gold after say $2000 and silver over $100.

                          Let us keep a dialog going, OK?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Willi View Post
                            Never put all yuh eggs in ANY one basket. PM at more than 30% of your net worth may be pushing it.

                            I can tell yuh definitely what the exit price should be now. What is ART? I cant tell you but you know it when you see it.

                            Exit price is dependent on a lot of things, luck included.

                            At the moment for me, I would reevaluate any position in gold after say $2000 and silver over $100.

                            Let us keep a dialog going, OK?
                            Fair enough. I am still buying both but think 30% is high...my threshold is 20%.
                            "H.L & Brick .....mi deh pan di wagon (Man City)" - X_____ http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/forum1/showthread.php?p=378365&highlight=City+Liverpool#p ost378365

                            X DESCRIBES HIMSELF - Stop masquerading as if you have the clubs interest at heart, you are a fraud, always was and always will be in any and every thing that you present...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I was giving the most extreme position.

                              In more normal times I would have suggested 10%.

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