China does everything on a large scale..

[Muadib]

so is not 'future need' ?

Yuh nuh hear seh is two different animal.. chineyman dem immune from 'greed'..

Bwoy.. brace unnuhselves.. when China sneeze...

[Jawge]

In the US. It's actually two of many, one is called the grand chessboard and the other the tragedy of great power politics. After indulging yourself; youw ill see where it's strategically sound to have a pipe running to the mainland that to go by sea. Sound far fetched? Remove the Eagle from that regiona and see what happens.

[1of1]

don't be obtuse
where from my two lines did I indicate, that chineyman immune from greed
O learned one.

[Muadib]

Yuh need to check the statement I made that you were responding tuh.. if yuh cannot formulate responses that are not misleading... mi cyaan help yuh...

[Gamma]

mi wasn't wearing mi glasses...wha dat him seh him was studying, CHEESEboard!!??

[Jawge]

I think you could change your mo (call the messenger a liar and a fool) to one wher you bring some facts of your own as counter to my arguments. Let's give that concept a try. Yes?

[Don1]

[Jawge;274114]Not really I studied the chessboard and saw what the dragon is doing.The dragon has no serious interest in africa (granted if it can exploit Africa' resources in the short term fine) The body of water that seperates the two is not in its strategic interest, coupled with the fact that that the ever watching Eagle is in the south east sea (furthermore it would take up huge resources to build and manuever a formidable navy for that purpose). Hence all that's going on right now is a feint.

You are essentially correct here... China's interest in Africa is to vaccuum out the natural resources to help fuel its 10% annual growth... similar to the European Scramble for Africa when that continent was in a high growth phase. Now China and India are in a Scramble... with China far ahead.

The Dragon's interest lies West of its lair (where the true riches lie), pay close attention if the dragon starts to build modern cities and factories in his western front (hey factories can easy be retooled for military efforts) the dragon is really interested in land forces. The Dragon plans to bide its time and watch if the eagle gets thrown out of this region whilst its influence becomes strong there (Afghanistan comes to mind).

You are misguided.

1. China's #1 foreign policy goal is to re-assimilate Taiwan which it sees as a mere breakaway province... this will happen either by invasion or more likely by the installation of a puppet government ala Hong Kong "Special Administrative Zone" ... I'd say with 20 years.

2. China's land forces are being drawn down... from about 3m to 1m. They are being modernized...but are not oriented for offensive operations...but defensive.
The biggest growth in their armed forces in the Air Force (PLAAF) and especially their Navy (PLAAN)... so they can:

(1) secure their Pacific coast line from US attack
(2) secure the sea lanes their huge trading depends on
(3)eventually overcome the present US military dominance in the Western Pacific/South China Sea thru the US bases in Japan, Hawaii and their ally Taiwan.

When China has overcome their military deficiency in the South China Sea vs the US and has deterred the US from acting through the anti-access platforms China is developing (most analysts estimate 15-20 years) in ... space (ballistic missiles to kill carriers) air (advanced aircraft including Russian designs & their new stealth jets)
surface & subsurface assets (rapid build up of Navy combatants.. missile equipped frigates, destroyers, submarines and a developing aircraft carrier force)....then they will feel free to retake Taiwan.

China is not interested in seriously projecting military power westwards or anywhere else...until Taiwan is recaptured... they are consumed by that goal... and absolutely determined to re-integrate that "province"...... but cannot do so until the US is sufficiently deterred from acting in Taiwan's defence as they did in 1995 under Clinton.

The same ploy is now being tested in the caribbean where it hopes to influence a state without actually being there. You won't see the dragon really pushing north as the bear resides there (the bear a long standing power in Europe). The Dragon his eyeing the riches of the caspian sea and beyond. The used aircraft carrier and ballastic missile is to have the eagle thinking he's interested in his southern flank, the prize is to the west.

Confused...
China is interested in riches everywhere...anywhere it can get it. Otherwise their 10% annual growth which is required to keep down rebellions...will be threatened

Ja is playing a very danegrous game right now and the sad part is that the general populace is not even aware of it.

Jamaica is not threatened unless it openly aligns itself with China... as Manley did with Cuba/Russia... I don't see either party doing that.. as both agree that Jamaica is firmly in the Western orbit.

China is a legitimate development partner for Jamaica in trade and investment...relations established in the mid 1970s...culminating in 2003 with a real coup...the China Trade & Investment Summit attended by Hu Jintao..the current big man ova deh

Jamaica would be foolish NOT to deepen legit relations with China... das where di money deh now...and even moreso in the future as they get richer.

Now you would have to pay some serious money at some Ivy league college for this lecture and look, you just got it for free

You flatter yourself... don't.

[Muadib]

Re-Take Taiwan ??

Yuh mean like what Saddam did with Kuwait ?

[Gamma]

moreover the USA is also courting china ..... is it just because china has all those iou chips?

[Don1]

Re-Take Taiwan ??

Yuh mean like what Saddam did with Kuwait ?

dis name geo-politricks.... yuh outa yuh league yahsuh... yuh need adult supervision inna dis

[Don1]

yuh rite...

[Muadib]

das why mi ah ask di 'experts'...

help wi out nuh...

[Jawge]

Normally I would come hard but I will give you credit for just stepping up to the plate with an attempt to bat. Boss some of what you are saying is just endorsing my point. China stripping down to one million (which is only a leaner, meaner and modern army). What will the dragon do? well read these facts first:

In that context, how America "manages" Eurasia is critical. Eurasia is the globe's largest continent and is geopolitically axial. A power that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world's three most advanced and economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map also suggests that control over Eurasia would almost automatically entail Africa's subordination, rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world's central continent (see map on page 32). About 75 percent of the world's people live in Eurasia, and most of the world's physical wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for about 60 percent of the world's GNP and about three fourths of the world's known energy resources.

Eurasia is also the location of most of the world's politically assertive and dynamic states. After the United States, the next six largest economies and the next six biggest spenders on military weaponry are located in Eurasia. All but one of the world's overt nuclear powers and all but one of the covert ones are located in Eurasia. The world's two most populous aspirants to regional hegemony and global influence are Eurasian. All of the potential political and/or economic challengers to American primacy are Eurasian. Cumulatively, Eurasia's power vastly overshadows America's. Fortunately for America, Eurasia is too big to be politically one.Eurasia is thus the chessboard on which the struggle for global primacy continues to be played. Although geostrategy -the strategic management of geopolitical interests -- may be compared to (Samuel P. Huntington. "Why International Primacy Matters", International Security) chess, the somewhat oval-shaped Eurasian chessboard engages not just two but several players, each possessing differing amounts of power. The key players are located on the chessboard's west, east,center, and south. Both the western and the eastern extremities of the chessboard contain densely populated regions, organized on relatively congested space into several powerful states. In the case of Eurasia's small western periphery, American power is deployed directly on it.The far eastern mainland is the seat of an increasingly powerful and independent player, controlling an enormous population, while the territory of its energetic rival -- confined on several nearby islands --and half of a small far-eastern peninsula provide a perch for American power.The Eurasian Balkans, astride the inevitably emerging transportation network meant to link more directly Eurasia's richest and most industrious western and eastern extremities, are also geopolitically significant. Moreover, they are of importance from the standpoint of security and historical ambitions to at least three of their most immediate and more powerful neighbors,namely, Russia, Turkey, and Iran, with China also signaling an increasing political interest in the region. But the Eurasian Balkans are infinitely more important as a potential economic prize: an enormous concentration of natural gas and oil reserves is located in the region, in addition to important minerals, including gold.

The world's energy consumption is bound to vastly increase over the next two or three decades. Estimates by the U.S. Department of Energy anticipate that world demand will rise by more than 50 percent between 1993 and 2015, with the most significant increase in consumption occurring in the Far East. The momentum of Asia's economic development is already generating massive pressures for the exploration and exploitation of new sources of energy, and the Central Asian region and the Caspian Sea basin are known to contain reserves of natural gas and oil that dwarf those of Kuwait, the Gulf of Mexico, or the North Sea. Access to that resource and sharing in its potential wealth represent objectives that stir national ambitions, motivate corporate interests,rekindle historical claims, revive imperial aspirations, and fuel international rivalries. The situation is made all the more volatile by the fact that the region is not only a power vacuum but is also internally unstable. Every one of its countries suffers from serious internal difficulties, all of them have frontiers that are either the objectof claims by neighbors or are zones of ethnic resentment, few are nationally homogeneous, and some are already embroiled in territorial,ethnic, or religious violence.

The above came from a book that is so revealing the author is back out now saying it's inconsistent and inaccurate. It shows why the Soviets went into Afghanistan and why the US is there now. Considering the dragon's posturing militarily it would be very unwise for the Eagle to leave the Afghan region. If you look at your map coupled with the info above you will see where the dragon is just waiting for the pressure at home for the eagle to mount; forcing the eagle from that region. With the dragon's money and new found prestige, it's not hard to influence that region. The dragon may even manipulate it to the point where it's able to place troops there.

Joshua did not sign any open agreement with the soviet union nor its proxy. It was the same aid and gifts that put JA in a bind. At this time JA is very vulnerable. Why? The majority of its population is only fit for unskilled labour (hence you can now glimpse why education is national security) hence it's easy for the dragon to finance huge road and building projects. This in turn will be a boon for the manufacuring and retail sector. The party that pushes this project will jump on the election trail saying "look at the positive growth we brougth to the island, yada yada". In the end they are beholden to the dragon (the real player behind the scene). Please note that the dragon is here for the same reason why the soviet union via its proxy. Granted if doesn't get whay it wants, it can always irrritate the Eagle and create some embarrasment on the diplomatic front (a scaled down version of Taiwan).


BTW if the dragon gets its way to its west, Taiwan will have to come in the fold (akin to Sun Tzu's capturing without fighting). Please note I'm not saying that the Dragon is using the art of war as this little book is of no match for the eagle (trust me on that one).

[Don1]

=Jawge;274682[/LIST]]Normally I would come hard but I will give you credit for just stepping up to the plate with an attempt to bat. Boss some of what you are saying is just endorsing my point. China stripping down to one million (which is only a leaner, meaner and modern army). What will the dragon do? well read these facts first:

Lol! Mi nuh biz how yuh waan come...hard ar soft... facts still rule

Saying as you did in your confused post, that China wants to build up its land forces to exert influence westwards is plain folly... that was fact #1

In that context, how America "manages" Eurasia is critical. Eurasia is [/COLOR]the globe's largest continent and is geopolitically axial. A power that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world's three most advanced and economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map also suggests that control over Eurasia would almost automatically entail Africa's subordination, rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world's central continent (see map on page 32). About 75 percent of the world's people live in Eurasia, and most of the world's physical wealth is there as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for about 60 percent of the world's GNP and about three fourths of the world's known energy resources.

Nothing revolutionary here.

The fact remains that in a multi-polar world no one power can "dominate Eurasia" when there are nuclear armed states there... Russia, China, India, US occupation forces with nuclear weapons in Germany, UK and soon to be Poland and Bulgaria.

Any attempt to so called dominate Eurasia which would result in an existential threat to the powers there...will probably result in war...directly or by proxy.. and since each of the sides can destroy each other... no side can be a clear military winner.

However as far as economic control of that region is concerned over the next say 50 years..all bets are off but China will definitely be a force.

Eurasia is also the location of most of the world's politically assertive and dynamic states. After the United States, the next six largest economies and the next six biggest spenders on military weaponry are located in Eurasia. All but one of the world's overt nuclear powers and all but one of the covert ones are located in Eurasia. The world's two most populous aspirants to regional hegemony and global influence are Eurasian. All of the potential political and/or economic challengers to American primacy are Eurasian. Cumulatively, Eurasia's power vastly overshadows America's. Fortunately for America, Eurasia is too big to be politically one.Eurasia is thus the chessboard on which the struggle for global primacy continues to be played. Although geostrategy -the strategic management of geopolitical interests -- may be compared to (Samuel P. Huntington. "Why International Primacy Matters", International Security) chess, the somewhat oval-shaped Eurasian chessboard engages not just two but several players, each possessing differing amounts of power. The key players are located on the chessboard's west, east,center, and south. Both the western and the eastern extremities of the chessboard contain densely populated regions, organized on relatively congested space into several powerful states. In the case of Eurasia's small western periphery, American power is deployed directly on it.The far eastern mainland is the seat of an increasingly powerful and independent player, controlling an enormous population, while the territory of its energetic rival -- confined on several nearby islands --and half of a small far-eastern peninsula provide a perch for American power.The Eurasian Balkans, astride the inevitably emerging transportation network meant to link more directly Eurasia's richest and most industrious western and eastern extremities, are also geopolitically significant. Moreover, they are of importance from the standpoint of security and historical ambitions to at least three of their most immediate and more powerful neighbors,namely, Russia, Turkey, and Iran, with China also signaling an increasing political interest in the region. But the Eurasian Balkans are infinitely more important as a potential economic prize: an enormous concentration of natural gas and oil reserves is located in the region, in addition to important minerals, including gold.

Of course China has interest in that region... but that interest is almost completely economic and will remain so for quite a while. China is the world's leading trading nation and will be an even bigger trade power in decades to come.... global economic power is shifting eastwards... that's a well known reality.

However China has zero ability to project (conventional) military power westwards and that will remain so for a long time... they would struggle now even to re-take Taiwan just a couple hundred miles off their east coast where they have concentrated on building up their armed forces.

The world's energy consumption is bound to vastly increase over the next two or three decades. Estimates by the U.S. Department of Energy anticipate that world demand will rise by more than 50 percent between 1993 and 2015, with the most significant increase in consumption occurring in the Far East. The momentum of Asia's economic development is already generating massive pressures for the exploration and exploitation of new sources of energy, and the Central Asian region and the Caspian Sea basin are known to contain reserves of natural gas and oil that dwarf those of Kuwait, the Gulf of Mexico, or the North Sea. Access to that resource and sharing in its potential wealth represent objectives that stir national ambitions, motivate corporate interests,rekindle historical claims, revive imperial aspirations, and fuel international rivalries. The situation is made all the more volatile by the fact that the region is not only a power vacuum but is also internally unstable. Every one of its countries suffers from serious internal difficulties, all of them have frontiers that are either the objectof claims by neighbors or are zones of ethnic resentment, few are nationally homogeneous, and some are already embroiled in territorial,ethnic, or religious violence.

Correct... hence ALL the great power's interest in the region and the political dueling over hydrocarbon deposits in the area and the competing gas pipeline projects backed by Russia (North Stream & South Stream) and Europe/USA (Nabucco and the Turkish pipeline to the Caspian)

Russia has the inside track because of its geography and traditional econ/political ties with the ex-Soviet states in the region... Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan etc...but Russia doesn't have the technology or the money to develop the resources without Western partners, China has lots of money but limited access at the moment. Europe is distracted by financial crises and the US is overextended in debilitating military campaigns and is financially stressed, India is just learning how to be a political player and doesn't have the resources yet to fulfill its potential as an energy force...but needs access.

All this makes for a dynamic intl situation...uncertainty, shifting alliances and possible war in the future.

The above came from a book that is so revealiong the author is back out now saying it's inconsistent and inaccurate. It shows why the Soviets went into Afghanistan and why the Us is there now. Considering the dragon's posturing militarily it would be very unwise for the Eadle to leave the Afghan region. If you look at your map coupled with the info above you will see where the dragon is just waiting for the preesure at home for the eagle to mount; forcing the eagle from that region. With the dragon's money and new found prestige, it's not hard to influence that region. The dragon may even manipulate it to the point where it's able to place troops there.

Yuh confused...both Russia AND China are at risk from Muslim insurgencies INSIDE their national borders...so conversely they WANT the US to stay in the region and block the Muslim thrust...it helps them contain their own insurgencies. What they DON'T want is for the US to be victorious and establish vassal states in the region and permanent military bases.... which would in turn threaten them. In other words they want a US quagmire which would weaken them long term...but blunt the Muslim advance...check.

This is a game within a game within a game...don't get confused by the superficial.

Joshua did not sign any open agreement with the soviet union nor its proxy. It was the same aid and gifts that put JA in a bind. At this time JA is very vulnerable. Why majority of its population is only fit for unskilled labour (hence you can now glimpse why education is national security) hence it's easy for the dragon to finance huge road and building projects. This in turn will be a boon for the manufacuring and retail sector. The party that pushes this project will jump on the election trail saying "look at the positive growth we brougth to the island, yada yada". In the end they are beholden to the dragon (the real player behind the scene). Please note that the dragon is here for the same reason why the soviet union via its proxy. Granted if doesn't get whay it wants, it can always irrritate the Eagle and create some embarrasment on the diplomatic front (a scaled down version of Taiwan).

Suggest you get over the Joshua fixation and move on... Jamaica lost that chance 30+ years ago partly due to his immaturity and lack of statecraft & misreading the local and intl environment.

It's really silly to be harping on that stuff now... the nation is larger than Joshua.

BTW if the dragon gets its way to its west, Taiwan will have to come in the fold (akin to Sun Tzu's capturing without fighting). Please note I'm not saying that the Dragon is using the art of war as this little book is of no match for the eagle (trust me on that one).

You have things in reverse...China intends to re-integrate Taiwan... that's the #1 territorial goal..by a mile.

Yuh need to expand your sources...one likkle book just will not do.

[Jawge]

Russia has the inside track because of its geography and traditional econ/political ties with the ex-Soviet states in the region... Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan etc...but Russia doesn't have the technology or the money to develop the resources without Western partners, China has lots of money but limited access at the moment. Europe is distracted by financial crises and the US is overextended in debilitating military campaigns and is financially stressed, India is just learning how to be a political player and doesn't have the resources yet to fulfill its potential as an energy force...but needs access.

What did I tell you about China and their money I felt like just stop reading. You are just saying what I'm saying in a round about way.

The US has to be in Afghanistan but the dynamics have changed and the bear would rather see the eagle there than the dragon. India isn't comfortable with the dragon's rise hence forging closer ties with the Eagle.
The dragon doesn't have to be physically in the region; it can influence it by pulling pakistan under its spehere of influence.

I guess you still cannot see the strategic importance of Afghanistan; speak to military officer (by showing him the map without names) and you will know (don't even tell him about the resources). Taiwan pales in comparison. You claim the dragon doesn't have the military power to project across land (key operative here) yet they will have the pwoer to reintegrate Taiwan. Are you crazy? Look at the map and you will see what the eagle is doing.The dragon hasn't finished refitting the used aircraft carrier (hence we can see engineering hurdles here), the dragon would have to then build up a huge naval force in the region against the Eagle and the rising sun (for Taiwan? when if patience and skill is used a pipeline for the addiction could lead to it's lair) The dragon has been seduced into an addiction to oil and at the same time the eagle controls the key point to the black gold. The Dragon needs the prize that lies west of its lair via land.

Over time (possibly another sixty years or so) Joshua will emerge as Ja's greatest leader. Joshua's down fall came because of being a baby in the realm of geo politics (just as yourself and others in JA). You just came around but I'm consistent. When the aristide crisis came about I stood alone on this forum saying the then PNP should leave it alone and not butt heads with the US. When most were jumping through hoops about China, I said the then PNP govt, should walk away from them (for the interest of the people and stability of the nation). What seems to kill JA is the lack of a national policy, everyone is just out to skim something off the top and line their pockets. None od thes politicians want to roll up their sleeves and work (as Joshua did).

Joshua sent some of you to schools (so you could come back with knowledge to help your fellowmen) did you return? Look at Ja's infrastrucre. Where are our civil engineers? We should now be able to have resovoirs undergrond and in mountains if possible. There should not be shortage of water on the island (instead we sit every year praying that it will rain according to the seasons). The highways for rapid movement of goods and services were built with expertise from abroad (this plunging the island in further debt).

I would propose that JA become the first nation to move the ministry of Education out of politics. Let it become national security akin to the JDF and moneyor budget to be casted accordingly for that ministry. You guys don't seem to see the impending danger for the island. Ja has some very bright and ambitious people (meaning the man or woman you see on the construction site,or selling on the streets could have been the island's scientist, engineer, economist,political scientist et al) but it's the lack of educational opportunities that's killing the island.

BTW one book could not have given you such an analysis.