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Is Gov't planning an oxymoron?
JAMES MOSS-SOLOMON
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Is Gov't planning an oxymoron?
JAMES MOSS-SOLOMON
Sunday, January 16, 2011
LET me begin by expressing condo-lences to the family and friends of former minister Donald Buchanan, and to wish for them that their sadness will soon fade and be replaced by happy memories.
It has been noticeable that the many tributes from political colleagues held no semblance of rancour. On reflection, for a man who held several politically sensitive positions, he could be very argumentative, with strong opinions, but I have never heard his name mentioned in the same sentence as violence, guns, or corruption.
One radio talk show host asked the question with regard to that being almost synonymous with the values of the people of St Elizabeth, and perhaps that is something to be further explored. Perhaps the phrase "honest politician" has become an oxymoron too.
I am not going to take sides in the tri-partite squabble that involves the Government, the contractor general, and the Sandals Group in the divestment of the hotel at Whitehouse. But, to have spent roughly US$114 million and to sell for under US$50 million, seems to be poor business sense. The Government has changed and perhaps this is a legacy inherited from a previous decision of a then governing party overflowing with so-called "eminent lawyers". But even cutting your losses and running demands some further explanation.
In my working days, such an action, even with a perishable product, would require explanation, disclosure, and approval. In private sector trade this would be seen as perhaps the only way to recover before the value went to zero and the action would be a normal way out, but not without total disclosure.
In the financial area, the world has been plagued by banks hiding and holding collateral with little value and this has hastened many a financial collapse. It therefore is more so applicable to governments who have no money of their own, but are essentially stewards of the public purse.
The current discontent with bank charges seems to have overlooked the discussions at the time of the much vaunted JDX. It was indicated then that as a result of the shortfall in interest rates on government paper, some of that loss was going to be recovered in fees. The magnitude of the impact should have been immediately recognised. Firstly, the banks' customers themselves would face lower interest rates on deposits. Secondly, several "little people" own bank shares. Thirdly, neither management nor shareholders will get rewards on less profit.
The current discontent with bank charges seems to have overlooked the discussions at the time of the much vaunted JDX. It was indicated then that as a result of the shortfall in interest rates on government paper, some of that loss was going to be recovered in fees. The magnitude of the impact should have been immediately recognised. Firstly, the banks' customers themselves would face lower interest rates on deposits. Secondly, several "little people" own bank shares. Thirdly, neither management nor shareholders will get rewards on less profit.
It is obvious that with the exception of the heavily over-borrowed Government, every other stakeholder would have to face possible losses, and managers would be expected to minimise those, or lose their jobs. For the borrowers, there could have been an incentive to finance viable projects, but in the face of a worldwide depression these have not readily emerged. Consumer products are limited by unemployment, lower personal disposable income, and the rising costs of expenses such as transportation, food and utilities. But I guess we didn't see that coming.
We have neither noticed nor accepted that job growth in the United States will have to be as large as to be nigh impossible to lead a recovery in the short to medium term. One recent analysis indicated that in order to get back to five per cent unemployment in four years, the job creation rate would have to be 335,000 per month, or roughly three times the average monthly increases in 2010. So unless something drastic happens, the job crisis may last over a decade.
We have neither noticed nor accepted that job growth in the United States will have to be as large as to be nigh impossible to lead a recovery in the short to medium term. One recent analysis indicated that in order to get back to five per cent unemployment in four years, the job creation rate would have to be 335,000 per month, or roughly three times the average monthly increases in 2010. So unless something drastic happens, the job crisis may last over a decade.
Therefore, a blind reliance on the US recovery stimulating our own would be quite misplaced. If that were the case, then we should expect two decades of further stagnation, and in our critical condition that is not an option. Government planners therefore need to step outside the box and accept that these are unusual times. Traditional actions and economic theories designed for perfect and rational behaviour may not have a part in the solution to our current dilemma, as this is more complex than just economic theory, and has greater social consequences.
This is a situation that requires a break from past paradigms and must lead to the implementation of new ideas. It will either spell political disaster if it fails and political fallout if we do nothing and conditions worsen, or on the other hand bring a political windfall never seen before — that is, if it works.
There are no dead heroes, only memories of times long past. It is to the living victor that the spoils will go. Success is therefore not a road to be missed, but an opportunity to be taken. Inaction is a sure way to choose death over life in this environment.
There are risks involved, and the management of these is the responsibility of leadership. The risk-averse person will not win the day, and we wasted 2010. Each day that passes without action is another nail in our own coffin, so it is time to innovate and take the nation toward a planned recovery.
Finally, may God bless the Haitian people and deliver them from suffering and bondage. I say this because, as I predicted, the mess is getting larger, and seems to be out of control. International politics and their own peculiar democracy seem to be at odds regarding the appropriate relief measures, and the calls for a respect of Haitian sovereignty.
All this flies in the face of a governmental infrastructure that has been devastated, and a civil service facing severe loss of capable personnel. So Caricom is requested to intervene and represent, even as we broadcast our own inability to deal with our individual and collective problems.
Here in Jamaica, we wish to have our own final court, but we have no budget to even bring our existing system to acceptable standards. We have paid our money to establish the CCJ Trust, and there will be no refund. The selection process of the judges of the CCJ seems to put them beyond the partisanship expected by the JLP and the PNP, and that is a decidedly positive step towards true justice.
Here in Jamaica, we wish to have our own final court, but we have no budget to even bring our existing system to acceptable standards. We have paid our money to establish the CCJ Trust, and there will be no refund. The selection process of the judges of the CCJ seems to put them beyond the partisanship expected by the JLP and the PNP, and that is a decidedly positive step towards true justice.
Judicial independence is not a pleasant thought for our politicians, especially where their own culpability can be tested. So please continue to make loud noises so we can identify your positions even on a moonless night. "Sounds and pressure, who can't take it, leave it, who can take it stay under it, right on the beat now sir."
Let us avoid turning an oxymoron into a real moron as a result of believing in "political leadership" as a real goal that can be achieved without our personal vigilance.
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