Are Jamaicans wizing up to the Tyranny of the Roti-Eaters??

[Peter R]

One more thing about the cost of fuel in smaller islands... they ARE smaller islands, much smaller, so the distances travelled for transportation is less, the price of fuel for motor vehicles is not as crtical as in countries where you travel longer distances on average.
The real test is how much they pay for electricity to power their plants. That is where we can make a better comparison.

FYI I don't know what the average residential electric bill is in JA, but mine is about $70 US per month. (no a/c in my house btw). Electricity in &T is generated by natural gas powered generators so relatively cheap given the govt subsidy.

[Don1]

juss kall mi Moses... nat Joshua

[Baddaz]

lawd... reggaemike & don1... big respect... mi really enjoy the discourse remind me of back in the day pon de site when most posters would put real thought inna dem argument... not that it was all warm and fuzzy but it was mostly some good discussions... damn, i'm on this site too long... mi just think back and realize how many years... frightening...

[Assasin]

you notice him fail to address productivity and niche or target market.

You can find many reasons why our competitors have advantages and it is not just oil.

[Don1]

wrong.

productivity comes from socioeconomic reform..especially education... I stated that

Niche markets... are to be exploited fully including the diaspora market ala Grace Kennedy... I stated that

Your memory is flaky

[Don1]

fi yuh respek konkrete bredrin

[ReggaeMike]

If you think Trinidad would be unconcerned or unaffected by the loss of its export market in Jamaica...I have a very flat bridge for sale to you.

But wait, Guv'ment sell off Flat Bridge to you already?

Alright, I'll start the bidding at J$100,000.

So the only place to get safe, inexpensive products is Trinidad??

Nope, but it is probably the only place to get safe products that haven't been really been subsidized. As I contended before, there is little point in taking a position in opposition to claimed subsidies only to turn around and buy truly subsidized (and at times heavily subsidized) goods from elsewhere. If Jamaica is going to buy subsidized goods from it's WTO partners then there is little point in complaining about phantom Trini subsidies.

[ReggaeMike]

This is not good analysis at all RMike..

Yes...Jamaica should seek markets wherever we have a competitive advantage...

Sure, but that is not what could be meant by "The type of niche marketing that's recommended as best for Jamaica works best with our vast diaspora". I may have misinterpreted you, but nothing in your sentence even vaguely hinted at seeking large and multiple markets.

the diaspora is definitely a marketplace where we should focus on... not exclusively but it should be a huge part of the mix..... then leverage that to try to mainstream our brands

Grace Kennedy, our largest and most successful conglomerate is the best example of this strategy.... they have executed this well in the last 10 years.. Do you know what their slogan is?

"We think the world of you" if I recall correctly, but Grace Kennedy supports my point. Grace Kennedy's products are not niche market products. Hardware supplies, lumber, milk/dairy, meats, financial services, etc are products that are not limited to the diaspora and in fact are geared towards the average person around the world (excepting those who are allergic to milk of course, but then Grace sells other foods for those poor souls). Note that it is Grace (the one that primarily sells generalized products and services) which is successful and not a company that primarily sells niche products such as yams and ackees. Sure a company can sell them and probably make a profit, but it shouldn't expect to make vast profits off of them selling to a varied population of Jamaican origin in North America and England because it would most likely need to sell such products in specialized stores as otherwise the low uptake by the general population means most stores won't bother with such products (unless they won't spoil quickly) because they would represent a loss.

[ReggaeMike]

1. Whatever the terminology one wishes to use, MFN (agree the term is dated...but I used it loosely..my bad) or whatever...the fact is that the United States is currently engaged in a program of bi-lateral trade agreements with countries throughout the world... the latest being South Korea just this week. Jamaica would be foolish to continue ignoring this option and hew to this romantic but failed (for us) notion of Caricom... where our chances for significant growth & development are nil.

Again though, what would be the point in negotiating such agreements with the US when:

1. we have no leverage?

2. we would never be able to properly exploit such agreements before we fixed our productivity and efficiency issues? Note that the other, productive states in Caricom make Caricom work for them (even Guyana!). Caricom hasn't failed for us, but rather we have failed ourselves and therefore are unable to take proper advantage of Caricom. If we can't take proper advantage of a free trade zone in which we supposedly have leverage over even Trinidad (something I still don't buy), how are we going to take advantage of a free trade agreement with a country of 300 million and productivity levels that are light years ahead of us?

3. We would subject ourselves to truly subsidized agricultural goods and the possibility that eventually American companies would first out-compete our local companies and then buy them up? Not only would the trade deficit widen, but the hidden deficit whereby profits derived from companies operating out here and selling to the US are then sent back to the US would also increase. Given the state of our agriculture, it wouldn't be hard to see US sugar competing with our own if tariffs had to be removed. After all the US produces 27 million tonnes of sugar cane and also produces sugar beet and together these two crops can produce millions of tonnes of sugar, whilst Jamaica is merely hoping to produce 150,000 tonnes.

Note that all the countries listed in those free trade agreements are countries with high productivity (Israel, Australia, the Dom. Rep.) or with goods and services that the US highly desires. Regionally the agreements with the Central American countries came after similar agreements had already been signed between Central America and Canada and Mexico, so part of the reason for the US signing/initiating the agreement with Central America was to ensure they didn't have a competitive disadvantage with their NAFTA partners (of course, the sensible thing to do would be to have NAFTA just negotiate free trade agreements so that the US, Canada and Mexico would all get those agreements at the same time just like the EU does, but that's another issue). Note also the size of the markets of those countries. The smallest is Bahrain at 790,000 people but with reserves of oil and being important to US interests in the Middle East (even hosting bases if I'm not mistaken). The next smallest market is Oman with 3 million but again with oil and US bases and being tied to US interest in the Middle East. After that there are Costa Rica (4.5 million) but this was negotiated as a package deal with a group of countries with a combined population of 30 million. The next country in terms of population which seems to have had a true bilateral agreement (DR-CAFTA isn't really bilateral as it involves the US and a group of countries much as Caricom would) is Singapore with about as many people in the English-speaking Caribbean all fitting on an island the size of Dominica and with such amazing levels of productivity that they produce their own military hardware and take very good care of their citizens. So unless Jamaica is like Singapore or does a group deal like Costa Rica or discovers enough oil to displace the Middle East as a US priority, the market size of 2.5 million is very unlikely to be large enough by itself to get the US interested.

A free trade agreement with the US would very likely be beneficial, at the right time. But now (or anytime in the foreseeable future given our productivity levels) is not it. It would be akin to the Trujillos' Dominican Republic of the 1940s-1960s negotiating a free trade agreement with the US either then or now.

2. It's naive to believe that the US is unconcerned about China's aggressive moves in its sphere of influence. They are.

Sure they are, but not to the extent that they would be falling over themselves to sign up with us. This is 2010, not 1980. The Caribbean in general has fallen very low on US priorities since the end of the Cold War. China is not the USSR and doesn't advocate the global spread of communism and doesn't use Cuba as a proxy. China's aggressive moves are more to do with business and outmanoeuvring Taiwan in terms of diplomatic recognition. China isn't about to set up military bases and the US knows this (Tea Party goers notwithstanding). Even the latest Wikileaks documents show that the US foresees relations with China changing over the next 30 years and that relations between China and the third world will also change as China becomes rich (in addition some documents show irritation in Africa and the rest of the third world with some aspects of Chinese behaviour). Given all that, the US is hardly likely to be so worried about China that they would give generous trade concessions to Jamaica.

3. Jamaica has a strategic location in the region, potentially controlling sea lane access to the Panama Canal on the Atlantic side.

Not really. That may have been true in the age of coal ships and before aircraft and to some extent during WWII when aircraft were more limited in their range, but not now. The US has the base at Guantanamo Bay (which controls the Windward Passage and you have to pass through that before reaching Jamaica) and various bases in Puerto Rico (which are further east than Jamaica and thus any ship attempting to get to the Canal through the Eastern Caribbean or Mona or Vieques and Anegada Passages would have to pass by or near Puerto Rico and the USVI long before they neared Jamaica). They don't really need anything else. They don't even really need Guantanamo. During Operation Just Cause in 1989 the US intervened in Panama directly from bases in the US (specifically in Texas, Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina). It is no coincidence that as aircraft capabilities and ranges have increased (and as the US Navy moved from a destroyer-based fleet to a carrier based fleet during WWII) that the various bases that the US leased around the British West Indies specifically for the purpose of defending the approaches to the Canal were given up as being no longer useful. Bases in Antigua, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Lucia, Guyana and the Bahamas were all given up between 1949 and 1963. Note that these bases were given up during the Cold War when the US faced far greater threats to the Atlantic approaches to the Canal (due mainly to submarine threats) than now and in fact the base at Chaguaramas which the Americans insisted they needed up until the late 1950s was scaled back and then fully returned in 1963 even though that base had been the staging point for one of the naval task forces which participated in the Blockade of Cuba during the Missile Crisis in 1962. These are the same bases that the US had complete rights to control until 2039 (99 year lease) and yet in less than 25 years the US gave them all up as they were no longer needed despite having fought the Korean War and gone through the Cuban Missile Crisis.

In any event, if China were to pose any threat to the canal it would be on the Pacific side and the US already got an agreement for two bases on the Pacific coast of Panama itself which will be mainly used to combat drug-trafficking (as the traffickers have been starting to shift their routes towards the Pacific coast of Latin America towards California).

Kingston has a big container port which China is interested in controlling....

...for business.

they already control ports bracketing the Atlantic & Pacific points of the Canal Zone through Hutchison Whampoa... all these things are of concern to the US...especially in war planning.
As we know, peace time is mere preparation for war.... for strategic planners that is

Commercial ownership or control or access to a port does not equate to military control. Dubai Ports World attempted to buy six major seaports in the US, but nobody seriously expected that such commercial control would mean that the UAE would suddenly be able to use those ports for military purposes, despite Dubai Ports World being a state-owned company.

In war planning the Chinese would not be able to exploit Jamaica's ports unless they physically controlled the island or at least the Liguanea Plain or had a puppet government on the island (and such a puppet government wouldn't last long without Chinese soldiers because the day Jamaicans find their government on the side fighting against the US is the day you will be guaranteed to see that government forced to resign - the resignation calls and pressure during the Dudus affair would pale in comparison and a coup would be very likely). Without PLA soldiers of at least 5 battalion strength on the island this is simply not possible. Should China somehow get to use Hutchinson Whampoa to maybe block the canal then there is nothing that the US could do about that from Jamaica. Once the canal is blocked all efforts would have to be in Panama, not on some island a few thousand miles away.

4. It is a fact that S Korea has far more strategic significance to the US than Jamaica does...but that fact is irrelevant to Jamaica pursuing its interests in a bi-lateral agreement

Actually it is quite relevant. The US has yet to pursue free trade with countries that do not have at least one of the following criteria:

- unstrategic or not very strategic

- firm and long-standing allies or immediate neighbours

- have oil

- have a relatively affluent population which can form a decent sized market

- have highly productive economies.

Note that the only African state that on that list is Morocco. An Arab state with a large population, oil, a history of helping the US in the Middle East and one that strategically controls the Straits of Gibraltar along with Spain and Britain.

Countries with declining productivity such as Kenya (with a large population to boot) aren't anywhere near getting a US free-trade deal even with a Kenyan-American in the White House.

5. Jamaica needs to wake up to the reality that this Caricom thing is NOT operating to our benefit... and is structurally impossible to do so at this point.... ALL the other nations except Guyana are ahead of us..

Burnham long gone man! Guyana has been the only country in the region that has been growing even through the recession. In fact the IMF recently noted that Guyana has registered a fifth consecutive year of economic growth. That Guyana could move from the decline under Burnham to making Caricom operate for it's benefit shows that contrary to what you state, Caricom (in fact any free trade arrangement) can offer avenues for development provided that the country in question fixes it own problems that prevent it from adequately utilizing such avenues.

.but offer no avenue for our development because they are small...ie the worst of all worlds.

And Jamaica is what? There are many towns in China and cities in the US for which Jamaica would merely be a neighbourhood. Even Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico are all larger than Jamaica in terms of population. And despite a lot of the other islands being "small" their combined population is still double that of Jamaica and easily approximates the size of the diaspora. In addition as you noted every one of them (even Suriname if I'm not mistaken) is richer than Jamaica. So if they are richer than Jamaica (to the point where people in the Eastern Caribbean regularly pay more for items including fuel than Jamaicans do and without protest) and their combined population is twice that of Jamaica, how exactly does this not offer a market for development for Jamaican businesses? Rich people with a similar cultural heritage who are familiar with some Jamaican foods and love Jamaican music forming a market twice as big as unproductive and poor Jamaica and this offers no avenue for development? You didn't hear the story about the schools in Barbados on NPR in comparison to the the schools in Jamaica did you?

We should de-couple ourselves from that regional/small-minded thinking and find a better way by opening our eyes fully... a bi-lateral arrangement with the US is one such way imho

I'll say it again. This is how countries become poor. By focusing on only one avenue of development whilst burning their bridges. Those countries in Central America that you hold up as an example of the kind of free-trade arrangement Jamaica could have with the US are actually in a regional common market a lot like Caricom. There is the CA-4 group (Central American Four) of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua which is the core group of SICA. Places like Honduras can see ways to benefit from their diaspora market, from the larger US market, from the European market, from the wider Latin American market and from the regional Central American market without thinking that it is a zero-sum game between the US and it's Central American partners. Somehow the common market for Central America doesn't seem to have been a problem for Honduras in utilizing a free-trade deal with the US. The same applies for a number of other countries....Singapore (in ASEAN), Bahrain (in the GCC), Chile (in USAN) and Australia (in a free trade zone with New Zealand)....

Respek

Respek too.

[ReggaeMike]

What will continue to get us nowhere is looking to Caricom...a tiny, poor market where we are the largest consumer... a losing strategy.

We need to negotiate a bi-lateral agreement with the US for this new dispensation...playing the growing Chinese strategic interest in Jamaica off the US and try to get some benefits.

Caricom will take us nowhere

The idea that Caricom will take us nowhere is a misconception based on the misconception I highlighted.

The only poor markets in Caricom relatively speaking are Jamaica, Haiti and Guyana. Even Guyana is set to get themselves out of the rut having registered a fifth consecutive year of growth (during a global recession) and are set to experience 4% growth this year alone.

All other markets in Caricom are wealthier than Jamaica and in some cases (T&T, Barbados and some of the Windward Islands) they are substantially wealthier. So if they are wealthier than Jamaica and yet Jamaica's low productivity ensures Jamaica cannot take advantage of that (even to the point where Jamaica should be the China of Caricom when it comes to labour) how would chasing after even wealthier markets that want little to do with Jamaica make any difference?

Remember that the free-trade agreement with Central America was actively pursued by the US and Central America, not by Central America alone. And this despite most of the countries in Central America being tied together in a "poor" (by US standards) common market much like Caricom. The US has also pursued agreements with countries in other common markets without involving those common markets (Singapore for instance), yet the US has never seen it fit to even mention the possibility of day-dreaming about a US-Jamaica FTA.....

[Willi]

In 1990, TnT used to look up to Jamaica...what happened?

[Don1]

It is impossible for trade with Caricom to make Jamaica wealthy....or even to advance us significantly. The market is too small & poor...plus we have no significant comparative advantages ...Fact.

This being the case...there is little advantage to remaining in Caricom especially if such membership affects chances of developing other preferential agreements bi-laterally.

In dealing with a larger market like the US we have the comparative advantage of a huge diaspora (familiar with and partial to our products) which has an annual income of maybe US$80B+....far greater than Caricom's income. Exploiting this diaspora market opportunity is EXACTLY Grace Kennedy's very successful strategy...Jamaica should follow that lead as a nation. An entity like NCB for example should have a bank operation in the US east coast ...following Jamaica National.

Also we can try to wring concessions from the US in bi-lateral talks for geo-political reasons...such as their natural desire to limit China in the region. For example refuse to allow Chinese majority control of the KCT...an outcome the US would find desirable...in return for trade development concessions

Use all the tools in our likkle toolbox...

[Don1]

=ReggaeMike;267162]Sure, but that is not what could be meant by "The type of niche marketing that's recommended as best for Jamaica works best with our vast diaspora". I may have misinterpreted you, but nothing in your sentence even vaguely hinted at seeking large and multiple markets.

Regret my poor language. However the diaspora market is huge, vibrant, friendly and underserved... much can be done to develop this by Jamaican firms...they need only open their eyes as Grace Kennedy has done.

Except for well established international brands like Sandals, SuperClubs & Red Stripe...supported by decades of expensive marketing...our local products would be lost in the marketplace.

Hence the requirement for "niche marketing" in areas we can identify a comparative advantage.

"We think the world of you" if I recall correctly, but Grace Kennedy supports my point. Grace Kennedy's products are not niche market products. Hardware supplies, lumber, milk/dairy, meats, financial services, etc are products that are not limited to the diaspora and in fact are geared towards the average person around the world (excepting those who are allergic to milk of course, but then Grace sells other foods for those poor souls). Note that it is Grace (the one that primarily sells generalized products and services) which is successful and not a company that primarily sells niche products such as yams and ackees. Sure a company can sell them and probably make a profit, but it shouldn't expect to make vast profits off of them selling to a varied population of Jamaican origin in North America and England because it would most likely need to sell such products in specialized stores as otherwise the low uptake by the general population means most stores won't bother with such products (unless they won't spoil quickly) because they would represent a loss.

You are incorrect.

According to the current CEO Douglas Orane, Grace's mission is to meet the unmet needs of Caribbean people (read mainly Jamaican) wherever they may be.... and most of the income of Caribbean people is generated OUTSIDE the Caribbean...ie in the Diaspora...so that's where Grace has a huge & very successful focus.

All Jamaica needs to learn that strategy as a viable part of our mix of options.

[ReggaeMike]

You are incorrect.

According to the current CEO Douglas Orane, Grace's mission is to meet the unmet needs of Caribbean people (read mainly Jamaican) wherever they may be.... and most of the income of Caribbean people is generated OUTSIDE the Caribbean...ie in the Diaspora...so that's where Grace has a huge & very successful focus.

All Jamaica needs to learn that strategy as a viable part of our mix of options.

Hang on. Is this a case of misinterpretation again. I'm sure you asked me what Grace's motto was.

Plus what the Grace CEO says that Grace's mission is now, has little bearing on how Grace became a successful conglomerate. Was it's mission always to meet the unmet needs of Caribbean people wherever they may be? Even when they were just starting out with soup? Again, note that soup is a product that can be consumed by everybody, not just Jamaicans on the island or in the diaspora. It is probably no coincidence that the unmet needs of Caribbean people will probably just happen to coincide with the unmet needs of people in general and that is not niche marketing.

[ReggaeMike]

It is impossible for trade with Caricom to make Jamaica wealthy....or even to advance us significantly. The market is too small & poor...plus we have no significant comparative advantages ...Fact.

Please cite the relative wealth of all the countries in Caricom in comparison to Jamaica and then tell us how trading with countries that are indisputably richer than Jamaica will not make Jamaica better off. If so then trading with America won't make us better off either and Jamaica should focus it's trade on Haiti, Liberia and Somalia.

In dealing with a larger market like the US we have the comparative advantage of a huge diaspora (familiar with and partial to our products) which has an annual income of maybe US$80B+....far greater than Caricom's income.

You have yet to cite Caricom's income as a basis for comparison and also seem to exclude the wider Caricom diaspora in this analysis.

Plus the US government's own census counts the Jamaican diaspora in the US as being about 900,000-1 million. Given that people are free to declare what their ancestry is the fact that 1 million chose to put Jamaica before anything else indicates that for the wider diaspora the link to Jamaica is not strong enough to warrant even being called Jamaican-American officially (which might be due to stronger links with other countries of their ancestors such as the US itself, China, Britain, or elsewhere).

In any event this "huge" diaspora is in fact just as tiny, if not more tiny than the Caricom market.

Plus as I've been saying throughout, Jamaica will not get wealthy by ignoring markets...any markets. China never did. They sold to insignificant and debt ridden Jamaica because they know that money is money no matter who owns it. There is no sound, logical reason why Jamaica (once productivity is increased) cannot exploit the Caricom market, the US market, the EU market, the diaspora market, a wider Commonwealth market, the Asian markets and various other markets to it's benefit.

Exploiting this diaspora market opportunity is EXACTLY Grace Kennedy's very successful strategy...

You are talking about one of Grace Kennedy's current strategies (all successful companies have multiple, concurrent strategies). How did Grace start out? What foods did Grace make and were the most popular not general-purpose foods that anybody could have?

Also we can try to wring concessions from the US in bi-lateral talks for geo-political reasons...such as their natural desire to limit China in the region.

But you said we have no leverage with the US.

Plus given what the US has on us (debt) it is far more likely that they will wring concessions out of us.

For example refuse to allow Chinese majority control of the KCT...an outcome the US would find desirable...in return for trade development concessions

If the US in the end acquiesced to a Chinese company running container terminals on both ends of the Canal I don't see why they would suddenly find a Chinese company running the KCT anything to get too excited over. Note that even now with the prospect of Chinese interest in the port, not one news item about it has made headlines in the US.

Use all the tools in our likkle toolbox...

But how does that square with ignoring Caricom and focusing mainly on a diaspora market? That's like only using the wrench in the toolbox and considering it to be "all the tools".