An idea being floated in the Observer re OIL

[1of1]

killa business dat oil business

[Willi]

I never said anything bout quick return. it would be long term VALUE investing.

Also, talking bout drilling. Dem have new bits that can drill HORIZONTALLY now and follow promising lines (this makes the Gippsland venture with Falcon gravimetric tech from BHP Bill. even more appealing than Sagres), so its not juss an up down thing anymore. This is also why shale gas finds have exploded!

The venture can fly, if we want it badly enuff.

[Don1]

Yes you make good points... am aware of the horizontal drilling...in fact it's causing nuff disputes re encroachment in areas the driller is not authorized...

.... but even if they had 6 years instead of 6 months to prepare a prospectus for financing and do the promos/road shows etc...., I don't see Jamaicans investing in an extremely speculative venture like that

Chiney mi seh... they have the long view..an di lang packet

[Willi]

Here is my problem.

When yuh haffi rely pon outsider like USA and China...dem big bwoys deh can get craven and push us likkle bwoy dung and tek whey wi candy!!!

Yuh think seh dem a look pon the oil and gas and nah scheme?

[Don1]

Everyone is scheming...we are busy scheming against ourselves...JLP vs PNP

mi step affa dat dead end lang time... mi cuss di 2 ah dem fi falla di righteous track

[Willi]

Even for enlightened self interest reasons!!!

Dem too backward fi understand that?

[Don1]

I do believe so...

[Muadib]

wheh yuh seh is 3 years now yuh off dat Wagon..

[Karl]

Saving Air J and having it scaled down and properly run (as planned by Air Roti) was misguided only if one believes Jamaicans are congenitally unable to run an airline....who knows maybe that's true.

The GOJ gave it away... We are still paying the debt overhang anyway...and will supposedly get some worthless Caribbean Airlines "equity" for which we no doubt will see zero dividends and will also be unable to dispose of....what market is there for Caribbean Airlines equity? I guess the only player would be the TT Govt.
Meanwhile the new Air J owners are NOT putting in any significant capital but are merely using the carrier to fill out their own tepid little operation....spreading their capital costs over a much expanded asset base....and creaming off the benefits for good ole T&T.

The petrocarbon industry can be profitable but is even more unforgiving and capital draining than the airline bizniz. Any well they dig could come up dry...but one dug a kilometer away could hit the elephant....or not ...one well naan guh dweet....then if oil prices collapse again they may decide it's not worth the risk....an yuh money at di bottom ah di well...ar inna Toronto sumwhey an yuh cyaan retrive dat.

I don't see Jamaicans investing $200m+ in a speculative venture especially with a tiny, unproven outfit like Rainville... especially in such a timeframe as proposed.

Dem fi fine one partner whey kno di bizniz an have money fi bun...do I hear it for CNOCC or Petro China? They're (The Chinese that is) already drilling in Cuban waters I believe. They need an investor with a long view.

It always amazes me when those to whom you respond come with their arguments and do not see that the same position taken by them that we are incompetent and just do not have the skills to run say, an Air J profitably suggests we cannot run any entity profitably or well.

Sure our record on running our 'home entities' is not good...but...

[Willi]

Karl,

if we dont have a great track record and are willing to try again, what you suggest? The toughest business in di world to run profitably or the business that is a licence to print money??? The business that even when the speculators again collar the market will be protected, in that we stand to share in the windfall?