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Writing on the wall for Portia
Mark Wignall
Sunday, August 22, 2010
WHEN PNP leader Portia Simpson Miller was at the height of her 'Portia' days, her approval rating in polls in early 2006 reached as high as 75 per cent.
Nineteen months later, in September 2007, the party she led lost in a close election and, had there been any doubts about her leadership limitations, those were cleared up in many minds by her cry-baby responses to the loss, her threats and her ungracious throwing in of the towel.
SIMPSON MILLER... doesn't allow the past to build her future
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In the September 2007 campaign, a loosely knit group called Comrades Against Portia (CAP) was, if not actually formed and structured, trying to push out its head, not just because the members saw the political writing on the wall but also, it was clear to them that she did not have the organisational ability to lead from so lofty a perch and neither did she possess the visionary qualities needed to take the party out of the doldrums of tribal politics and into the fresh air of the 21st century.
I heard names, but even the information channels were suspect. Politics is very definitely an unkind game. When reformist groups like CAP are being given birth, to leave the safety of the amniotic sac and dry one's wings in the harshness of that first breath could be fatal if the push to life is not perfectly timed.
Certainly some of its members would be looking at each other while trying to figure what was in the other guy's head. If I pushed out my head, would I do so with the sure knowledge that last-minute cold feet would not leave me standing alone? When one stands alone on a burning issue like party reform and replacement of party leader, oftentimes it is the very persons who had cold feet who are mandated to chop off one's neck.
A burning issue of those PNP comrades at the time was the fact that Simpson Miller was inserting too much of herself in the party campaign and advertisements, while the JLP was running some killer ads which captured the very worst of her previously recorded rants. What those comrades must have figured out is that Simpson Miller doesn't allow the past to build her future; instead, she expresses her present and future by grasping, clutching at little snippets of her populist past. What that approach does is plant her in one place and she never moves.
In my assessment, as far as she is concerned, 2010 is just as good as 1976.
After a bruising 2006 internal race which was heavily funded, the little money that the PNP got from corporate Jamaica allowed it to end up about $50 million in the red after losing power in September 2007. As arrangements go, the majority of political funding still comes from corporate Jamaica and both political parties will accept cash, especially in huge amounts, which has difficulty getting lodged in bank accounts.
With this 'new' PNP group calling itself Comrades For Change (CFC), the stark visionary limitations of the party leader as one of the main 'esoterics' must be placed alongside the cold, hard reality of funding should the JLP call an election in say, another year.
Corporate Jamaica has pretty much turned its back on funding the PNP under the leadership of Portia Simpson Miller. But let us assume that the PNP under the present leadership does manage to secure say, $60 million for the next election. Does anyone really believe that it would be used to clear the present debts when there is an election to be run? No, no.
According to the latest circular from Comrades for Change, 'The PNP is now a party led by Portia Simpson Miller and a phalanx of lumpen elements. They have no vision, no plan and no interest in building a solid, progressive, intellectually efficient PNP that will bring social justice and social change. The great PNP built and nurtured by Norman and Michael Manley has become a major disappointment.'
CFC explains what it is all about. 'Comrades For Change is a group of organised PNP members and supporters, formed in October 2007, working to ensure that the party reconnects to its fundamental ideals and principles. This cannot happen unless there is radical transformation in our beloved party, which is now being threatened by big money interests and those who would want to use our party to feather their own nest. We are also committed to purging from the PNP those who lack the capacity and integrity to lead our great party, much less a nation. Real transformation, we believe, cannot come through half-hearted reforms and a mere re-shuffling of the current status quo. It must be unflinchingly comprehensive. Anything less will only serve to extend our agonising days in Opposition.'
Who are the members of Comrades For Change?
I have heard some names but because the matter is so delicately poised, any speculation on my part would be very foolish.
I suspect, though, that it involves some bright 'youngsters' from various professions and maybe those very ones who had called themselves, loosely, Comrades against Portia.
Some of my colleagues in the press have chosen to see in the PNP 'split' and 'division' because those words evoke more political orgasms than say, 'reform.'
That the circular is silent on the principals is, to me, good strategy on their part. Remain a while longer in the safe warmth of the amniotic sac. It is said that the group will be launching a series of meetings in Jamaica and abroad in September.
Although many are in denial, significant numbers of those closest to the PNP leader are just waiting to jump ship if a strong, cohesive alternative group in the PNP emerges. Simpson Miller should not rest easy in the belief that her troops are solidly with her.
The sad strains of a political dirge are being played out for Simpson Miller. She will choose to harden her ears to it because that is her nature.
The PNP should be very concerned at the poll numbers
ACCORDING to my PNP activist friend from 'country', "At the time that poll was done, the JLP was damaged goods."
He is correct. To the public, Prime Minister Golding played his worst ever political hand in shuffling on the 'Dudus' extradition. His secretive use of Manatt, Phelps & Phillips to lobby the US Government on extradition issues, with quite likely the objective being the stalling of the move, threatened to sink the JLP administration.
The violence and heavy loss of life in the attempted extraction of 'Dudus' did not make it any better. The 40,000 jobs lost as a result of the recession probably affected about 10,000 households, a huge number in our small country. At the time of the Boxill poll, those jobs were still lost and those households were still meeting hell.
With all of those negatives going against Golding and the JLP, the poll showed a mere four percentage points separating both parties with the PNP in front.
Bear in mind that at the time of the poll the PNP was being led by the very person who enjoyed a high approval rating of 75 per cent (Stone Polls) in 2006. The question is, into what has that 75 per cent evaporated?
To me, it has evaporated into significant numbers of PNP supporters rejecting the view that 'huggy kissy' and screaming from political platforms are the stuff of political leadership at the national level. Many have slowly come around to the view that they can still love Portia because, 'she is one a wi' while placing that love in a different slot from how they perceive her leadership abilities.
I am of the view that I do not want my leader to be necessarily like me; someone with whom I can hang and shoot the breeze. I want my leader to be 10 times as bright and 100 times more capable than I in formulating policies to move the country forward. It seems to me that more people than before are embracing that position.
There are significant and welcome upticks on the economy, the exchange rate is somewhat stable and there are positives creeping back in the high-profile bauxite industry. Add to that the fact that the Government has close to $40 billion to unleash in roadwork funds.
If we assume, as my PNP activist friend said, 10 per cent of those funds find its way back into the party coffers through 'donations' from contractors, if the national roadwork programme is timed by those who know how to do such things, the JLP may not even have to ask corporate Jamaica for a $20 coin because it could have $4 billion in its election war chest!
The spin-offs in terms of actual jobs, the stimulation of petty commerce and the sense that 'tings a happen' could signal the curtain call for Simpson Miller and make Golding into what my friend is predicting he will be -- the Great Comeback Kid in the region.
Remember now, we are not indulging ourselves in a discussion of developmental politics, rather we are taking what we know is available to us, the pragmatist's route to doing what political parties must do. Win elections!
The thinkers in the PNP know that the trend is towards a lessening of the aura of its leader, Portia Simpson Miller, and for them to enter the next elections as the party which is stone broke, can secure no funds, has only fragmented voices and is certain to be bombarded by JLP ads about the PNP stopping the State of Emergency prematurely (with the implication being the PNP is pro-crime), they will be facing another defeat under Portia Simpson Miller.
A reward coming for DYC Fishing?
AFTER an article written by me last Sunday, headlined 'A bad taste in Minister Tufton's mouth', a reader took me to task and said, among other things, "I do not know Tufton, thus I hold no special personal likes or dislikes for the man. What I can see, though, is that he is the best performer in the JLP and I thought your article was not properly titled.
"I am never of the view that any public person is beyond criticism, especially elected representatives and Cabinet ministers. I have been closely following the articles you have written about DYC Fishing and agree with you that the matter deserves deeper probing. Instead of beating up on Tufton, who you admit is hobbled by present regulation on fishing, may I suggest that you move your focus away from him and invite the contractor general to probe this matter."
I concur with the reader, but must say that at no time was I 'beating up' on Minister Tufton who happens to be, in my eyes, the best-performing minister in the JLP Cabinet. That said, with DYC Fishing involved in breach after breach and still having a licence to control one-third of all conch caught in our waters, it does make sense for the OCG to examine the contracts with a view to determine if all matters are above board.
Remember now, the most recent matter involves the Customs seizure of the MV Abbey, a vessel belonging to DYC, and charges have been officially laid. Some questions need to be answered. What special 'quality' does DYC have that allows it to get a licence to control one-third of the conch caught? Were these quotas offered to tender? If so, what was the tender process like? Does DYC have a special, unwritten arrangement or agreement struck with the ministry as a result of its previous suit taken out against the Government when the PNP had power?
With all of that, it is my understanding that DYC Fishing is about to get a licence to fish for lobster. Jamaica does have that Alice-in-Wonderland quality, so nothing will surprise me even if it appears that the Fisheries Ministry or persons within it have decided to reward DYC Fishing for its breaches here and in the US jurisdiction.
The contractor general has proven himself to be a man who stands head and shoulders above politicians of the type like junior minister Everald Warmington by accepting Warmington's apology with style and grace, even as his office is set to launch a major investigation into numerous allegations surrounding Strathairn Construction Company Limited where Warmington was previously a director.
Mr Christie, your work has just begun and you have the entire Jamaica behind you.
Warmington not well liked
He has apologised and Contractor General Greg Christie has embraced his apology. That said, my call for his resignation has not elicited a single supporter of his in personal e-mails to me.
Said a regular reader, "The removal of Warmington would be an exercise that has long been overdue. When elected to serve the people it is one of the most privileged positions within a real democratic process. He has betrayed the trust of the people, and especially the impressionable youths of this country with his open display of rowdyism in and outside of Parliament. People like those should be put in solitary confinement and given a mirror so that they can fight themselves."
A comrade wrote, "I see where your overzealousness has caught up with you again. It seems that every one or any subject matter you happen to write on, you must include the opposition leader. Grateful you continue to write your good articles and get rid of the hate of the lady. I believe you have not really checked out Mr Warmington, you would find a long tale of misbehaviour going back to the eighties."
Sir, I do not hate the lady. Hate is too big a burden for me to bear. I love my country and I desire good political leadership. As far as I am concerned, the PNP has a leader who can offer no leadership.
Said another who saw the 58-year-old Warmington as a relic of the past, 'Master of apologies it seems. Dating back to 1980 -- 30 years ago. Don't we see that something's wrong? NOBODY who was a candidate in 1980 should be on a candidate ticket today. That's an old era. An old time. Don't we see what technology has done to the police in St Ann and all the replaying of speeches by politicians?
"I remember reading a copy of TELEPHONY, a magazine for the telephone industry. It suggested that ALL managers and senior personnel within telco companies should be sent home with immediate effect as they were masters of the monopoly era. The game has changed. So too should our politics. Goodbye to the old style and its masters."
The quickness of Warmington's apology tells me that the leader got him. Those concerns the prime minister would have had two years ago do not now, he probably believes, exist. Coming from the brink of resignation to just four percentage points behind in the Boxill poll has empowered the prime minister.
Warmington would be well-advised to keep the confused stirrings of his mind to himself. Next strike and he's out.
observemark@gmail.com
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