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Global Trends 2025
National Intelligence Council, November 2008
Edited by Andy Ross
Relative Certainties
● A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and others. The relative power of nonstate actors — businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and even criminal networks — also will increase.
● The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue.
● The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant.
● Continued economic growth — coupled with 1.2 billion more people by 2025 — will put pressure on energy, food, and water resources.
● The number of countries with youthful populations in the "arc of instability" will decrease, but the populations of several youth-bulge states are projected to remain on rapid growth trajectories.
● The potential for conflict will increase owing to rapid changes in parts of the greater Middle East and the spread of lethal capabilities.
● Terrorism is unlikely to disappear by 2025, but its appeal could lessen if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorists that are active the diffusion of technologies will put dangerous capabilities within their reach.
Key Uncertainties
● Whether an energy transition away from oil and gas — supported by improved energy storage, biofuels, and clean coal — is completed during the 2025 time frame
● How quickly climate change occurs and the locations where its impact is most pronounced
● Whether mercantilism stages a comeback and global markets recede
● Whether advances toward democracy occur in China and Russia
● Whether regional fears about a nuclear-armed Iran trigger an arms race and greater militarization
● Whether the greater Middle East becomes more stable, especially whether Iraq stabilizes, and whether the Arab-Israeli conflict is resolved peacefully
● Whether Europe and Japan overcome economic and social challenges caused or compounded by demography
● Whether global powers work with multilateral institutions to adapt their structure and performance to the transformed geopolitical landscape
Full Hundred
National Intelligence Council, November 2008
Edited by Andy Ross
Relative Certainties
● A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and others. The relative power of nonstate actors — businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and even criminal networks — also will increase.
● The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue.
● The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant.
● Continued economic growth — coupled with 1.2 billion more people by 2025 — will put pressure on energy, food, and water resources.
● The number of countries with youthful populations in the "arc of instability" will decrease, but the populations of several youth-bulge states are projected to remain on rapid growth trajectories.
● The potential for conflict will increase owing to rapid changes in parts of the greater Middle East and the spread of lethal capabilities.
● Terrorism is unlikely to disappear by 2025, but its appeal could lessen if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorists that are active the diffusion of technologies will put dangerous capabilities within their reach.
Key Uncertainties
● Whether an energy transition away from oil and gas — supported by improved energy storage, biofuels, and clean coal — is completed during the 2025 time frame
● How quickly climate change occurs and the locations where its impact is most pronounced
● Whether mercantilism stages a comeback and global markets recede
● Whether advances toward democracy occur in China and Russia
● Whether regional fears about a nuclear-armed Iran trigger an arms race and greater militarization
● Whether the greater Middle East becomes more stable, especially whether Iraq stabilizes, and whether the Arab-Israeli conflict is resolved peacefully
● Whether Europe and Japan overcome economic and social challenges caused or compounded by demography
● Whether global powers work with multilateral institutions to adapt their structure and performance to the transformed geopolitical landscape
Full Hundred
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