They still ask: Why doesn't Jamaica grow?....

[Don1]

Why can't Jamaica grow? Lessons from Barbados

BY KEITH COLLISTER

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

A little under one month ago, the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CAPRI) held a joint seminar with the world- renowned Stanford Graduate School of Business. As the not-so-new Golding administration enters the second half of its term, and just in front of the third in a series of ever more difficult budgets, it seems an appropriate time to address the failure of Jamaica to achieve faster economic growth, without which the relief provided by the Jamaica Debt Exchange will be only a very temporary respite.

CAPRI had assembled an extremely high-powered panel to discuss the Brookings Institute paper by leading Jamaican academic Peter Blair Henry, now Dean of the Stern Business School, and his former Stanford colleague Conrad Miller.

Entitled "Institutions verses Policies : A Tale of Two Islands", the paper notes that both Barbados and Jamaica inherited the two institutional characteristics that the literature on growth identifies as critical to long run prosperity "strong constitutional protection of private property and English common law". However, despite a similar small-island economic base, they experienced "starkly different growth trajectories in the aftermath of independence. From 1960 to 2002, Barbados' gross domestic product, per capita grew roughly three times as fast as Jamaica's. Consequently, the income gap between Barbados and Jamaica is now almost five times larger than at the time of independence."

Article

THE REAL PROBLEM....it's not ECONOMICS OR ECONOMIC POLICY it's SOCIOPOLITICAL... aka poor to negative SOCIAL RELATIONSHIPS.... regardless of the economic fixes applied ...that is what really limits Jamaica....so that's what has to have priority.


Jamaica has its solutions backwards...so is always moving in that direction...relative to our peers & neighbours

[Lazie]

"Supporting this view, Dr Hughes observed that in 1992, Barbados negotiated wage cuts to avoid a devaluation, something that "he can't believe Jamaica could have pulled off at any time in its history".

Wage cuts? People out fi riot due to wage freeze inna Jamaica.

[Don1]

"Supporting this view, Dr Hughes observed that in 1992, Barbados negotiated wage cuts to avoid a devaluation, something that "he can't believe Jamaica could have pulled off at any time in its history".

Wage cuts? People out fi riot due to wage freeze inna Jamaica.

In latter day Jamaica people generally riot...when led by politicians looking for tribal advantage....witness the gas riots of the recent past.

An example of the diseased social relations of which I speak....fostered by political tribalists.

[Lazie]

In latter day Jamaica people generally riot...when led by politicians looking for tribal advantage....witness the gas riots of the recent past.

An example of the diseased social relations of which I speak....fostered by political tribalists.

So back to the article you posted. Are you agreeing with Dr. Hylton that such a thing will not occur in our history? Various financial analysts have spoken about the huge wage bill which is a burden to the country, Barbados was able to deal with it.

[Mosiah]

do we really have a huge wage bill? or is because wi nah mek nuh money from production and di loan payments so high, etc.? are they implying that jamaican workers mek too much money?

[Islandman]

I am seeing references to that paper popping up in quite a few places. Apparently economists interested in the developing world see it as a case of two countries starting out on relatively similar terms, similar history, similar economy, system of govt, yet one is an outstanding developing world success story and the other is close to being a failed state. WHY is this?

Most recently I heard it discussed on an NPR podcast that I subscribe to. You can listen to a summarized version of the story at this URL:

http://www.npr.org/templates/player/...27&m=124346693

The reporter visits one inner city Kingston school and one inner city (or as close as B'dos has to one) Bridgetown school and compares the two.

[Islandman]

The graph in Figure 1 on page 15 of this PDF is sobering.

It is hard to not see a direct correlation with the Manley govt elected in 1972 and our decline into the abyss. Only a PNP tribalist would argue otherwise.

https://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/hen...nds-Dec-08.pdf

[Mosiah]

The graph in Figure 1 on page 15 of this PDF is sobering.

It is hard to not see a direct correlation with the Manley govt elected in 1972 and our decline into the abyss. Only a PNP tribalist would argue otherwise.

https://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/hen...nds-Dec-08.pdf

do you think there might be reasons as to why?

[Don1]

I am seeing references to that paper popping up in quite a few places. Apparently economists interested in the developing world see it as a case of two countries starting out on relatively similar terms, similar history, similar economy, system of govt, yet one is an outstanding developing world success story and the other is close to being a failed state. WHY is this?

Most recently I heard it discussed on an NPR podcast that I subscribe to. You can listen to a summarized version of the story at this URL:

http://www.npr.org/templates/player/...27&m=124346693

The reporter visits one inner city Kingston school and one inner city (or as close as B'dos has to one) Bridgetown school and compares the two.

Interesting piece.

I would say though that Barbados has ALWAYS put education as a priority...unlike Jamaica. This was so even when the two countries had comparable per capita GDP.

Which means our debt is NOT the core problem. Our core problem is a backward and regressive & selfish political and business class.

[Lazie]

do we really have a huge wage bill? or is because wi nah mek nuh money from production and di loan payments so high, etc.? are they implying that jamaican workers mek too much money?

Well, before the current opposition was removed from office there was multiple discussions about the huge wage bill and the possible "restructuring" of the public sector.

So, the problem did exist from before but of course it got harder to manage since the global crisis.

[Lazie]

The graph in Figure 1 on page 15 of this PDF is sobering.

It is hard to not see a direct correlation with the Manley govt elected in 1972 and our decline into the abyss. Only a PNP tribalist would argue otherwise.

https://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/hen...nds-Dec-08.pdf

Well, the observer article did say

"Looking at the question as to why fiscal policy went so awry in the 1970s, King argues we need to explain why despite a successful exchange rate peg, low fiscal deficits, and twenty years of average growth of six per cent per annum, the Jamaican population were much more susceptible to the argument "better must come" -- an argument that fell flat in Barbados."

[Mosiah]

fair enuff!

[Islandman]

There must be reasons. But how many of them were self inflicted and how many were external forces?

Here is the thing to keep in mind: Errol Barrow of Barbados was as much of a nationalist and almost as much of a socialist as Michael Manley was. He was no friend of the USA.

So maybe its not ideology as much as it is implementation that made the difference.

[Mosiah]

what kind of an opposition party did Barrow have?

[Islandman]

I agree, the debt is more a symptom than the disease.

My bredren who studied in Bdos always used to tell me that the level of education and knowledge among the general population there is striking. He said you can even pick up the difference in a rum bar or curry goat cricket conversation.