Willi it seems like a double dip recession

[Assasin]

Unemployment still at high and about to raise again.
Teachers and state workers are been laid off in the next month or so.
State budget all over the place short.
stimilus not really working
the bank are screwing people on their mortgage adjustment and people still walking.
While some sectors looking better the state budget them nuh look good at all.

[Me]

Double Dip. LOL

The only thing that recovered from the dip was the stock market.

[Assasin]

It took a little break from october to January and nuff people think it was over.

[Willi]

Dem seh the next leg down soon come...

[Hortical]

The stimulus money is ongle a drop in the bucket and it was too small to have any great impact and the economy would be much worse without it. State's are getting ready for another round of massive layoffs and if the economy does not approve by November, the Republicans will sweep to power in the House & Senate.

[Hortical]

Yes, the stock market has greatly rebounded. Historically the market has rebounded prior to the job market. Some people I know transferred all their 401(K) funds to bond funds, and they did not reap the benefit of the upturn in the market.

[Me]

The stimulus actually partially worked.

Saved some of the banks. JP and Wells were forced to take it, but the others certainly wouldn't have been a mess.

Even though the municipalities are all foing to be struggling because of decreased revenues, issuers below AA (which is many), didn't have access to the capital markets until Build America Bonds came about and loosened up that market. The transportation authorities and the construction sector is benefiting.

They created a floor (might be temporary) in the housing market with the Fed buying the GSE debt, the GSEs buying more crap MBS and the first time homeowner incentive being extended.

Many of these things simply delay the inevitable (50% of mortgage work outs, end up in default again within a year), but it did have a little effect. It is only natural that the State budgets will suffer because there is a natural lag in when the receive revenues.

Additionally, with all this pressure on Banker bonuses it significantly reduces the tax income recived by the municiplaities when the bonuses are reduced.

[Hortical]

Yes, I agree the transportation sector is benefiting enormously. States received an increase of almost 75% over their routine yearly allocation from Wash DC for projects, and I am aware of many contractors who did not have to layoff staff due to this huge influx of dollars.

[Willi]

Banker bonus should not have any significant impact to tax rev. in States outside of the Tri-State area...maybe Calif too?

[Me]

California is in the worst fiscal condition of all the States. Lack of cap gains and bonuses is affecting them (in addition to sales tax). Once that affects the State, it then has to affect the Counties and School Districts.

NC has been impacted also, because half of the Wachovia and Bank of America bankers/traders got fired. Luckily Wells Fargo decided not to fire the entire Wachovia army and decided that they will keep the platform.

[Don1]

The stimulus money is ongle a drop in the bucket and it was too small to have any great impact and the economy would be much worse without it.

Contradiction

[Willi]

How big is the banking sector in terms of the overall Cali economy?

I dont think its that big...

[Assasin]

The fact is Cali has been a mess for a long time now. Remember when they recalled the Gov and Terminator took over? That was even without one bank closing.

This budget year people going to be shock. In Atlanta at least 6 county school district is more than 100 million in the red for their budget. Kansas city closing half their schools and I could go on.

[Willi]

Well Bush nuh force States to run "Balanced budgets", while dramatically cutting Federal Transfer (and using the money on wild military adventures).

Inevitable consequence, really...

[Me]

regardless of what percentage the banking sector is compared to agriculture, hollywood, manufacturing and anything else, a decline in the banking sector makes a significant dent to the State's revenue stream.