Republican to win MA Senate Race

[Hortical]

Scott Brown is leading in all the polls and I expect him to win tomorrow.
Coakley was campaigning not to lose from the primaries and did not distinguish herself in the race. She is unimpressive and a bore, and Brown has surged in front of her and should pull off a great upset.
Scott Brown Leads Martha Coakley in New Massachusetts Senate Poll

Posted by Stephanie Condon

(AP )

A new survey shows GOP Senate candidate Scott Brown marginally beating Democratic candidate Martha Coakley in the race to fill the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat, the first time a major poll has put Brown in the lead.

Brown, a state senator, is beating state attorney general Coakley 50 percent to 46 percent, according to a new Suffolk University/7News poll. Brown's lead is within the poll's 4.4-point margin of error, but it still represents "a massive change in the political landscape" of the solidly blue state, Suffolk's Political Research Center director David Paleologos told the Boston Herald.

While independents surveyed decidedly favor Brown (65 percent) over Coakley (30 percent), even 17 percent of Democrats reported they prefer Brown.

The Democratic party is pulling out all the stops to try to make their supporters understand how close the race has become and how critical the race is. Even President Obama recorded a robo-call message for the state of Massachusetts.

"I rarely make these calls, and I truly apologize for intruding on your day," the president says. "[Martha Coakley] represents the best progressive values of Massachusetts. She'll be your voice and my ally."

Additionally, in one of its latest e-mails to supporters about the race, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sends a message from Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), who spearheaded health care reform efforts once Kennedy fell ill.

"Health care was the cause of my friend Ted Kennedy's life," Dodd wrote. "So it sickens me that the Republican running to take Ted's place is vowing to be the 41st vote to kill health care reform."

Sen. Kennedy's widow Vicki has also recorded a television ad on behalf of the Coakley campaign.

The Suffolk poll suggests, however, health care may not be the issue with which to mobilize voters -- 51 percent of voters surveyed said they oppose the "national near-universal health-care package."

[Assasin]

Is the only reason because she is bore? Dems took it for granted and they better realise that support Obama got must not be taken for granted and the Black men and young people a feel it and there is no gurantee they will show up at the polls.

[Karl]

...just gut! ...but I would not be surprised if she wins &..

...handily!

Well we'll see, what we shall see!
---------------------------

What Will Happen in Massachusetts on Tuesday? An Analysis By Scott Rasmussen
Monday, January 18, 2010

Two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing that Republican challenger Scott Brown had closed the gap in Massachusetts to single digits.Prior to that release, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties… was that Martha Coakley was a lock,” writes The Politico’s Ben Smith, adding, “It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.”



A week later, the shock continued as our final poll in the race showed that Brown had pulled to within two points of Coakley. In fact, among those who were certain they would vote, Brown was up by two.
At that time, Brown was leading among political moderates, middle-income voters and those over 40. He enjoyed a dominant lead among unaffiliated voters and even picked up a modest number of Democrats. By every measure, Brown supporters were more engaged in the race and more excited about their candidate. Nothing that we have seen over the past week appears to have changed those dynamics.



The health care issue is front and center as the reason Brown has gained traction. While the plan enjoys more support in Massachusetts than it does nationwide, those with strong opinions on the subject are more likely to oppose the bill than support it. Perhaps the single most shocking thing about the Massachusetts race is the fact that a Republican is running against the president’s health care effort and winning in the Kennedys' home state.



Brown’s position on health care has been supplemented by his positions on national security issues, including the Christmas Day terrorist bomber. Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly want the man who tried to blow up a U.S. airliner tried in a military setting as a terrorist.



Over the past week, the battle in Massachusetts has been fully engaged by both parties. Brown raised over a million dollars in a single day last week and has reportedly continued to raise large amounts of money every day. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, labor unions and other Democratic organizations are pouring money into the race. A handful of polls came out over the weekend suggesting that Brown was in the lead, and news reports indicate that both campaigns' internal polls are showing the same thing.



Since the last Rasmussen Reports poll, the Coakley campaign has had to endure a number of missteps ranging from the candidate’s debate performance and comments about Afghanistan to her mistaken assertion that Boston Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankees' fan.



While those items may have hurt, the Coakley team got some good news as well. First, the heightened interest in the race may serve to increase turnout among Democrats who have been fairly apathetic about their candidate and the campaign. Second, President Obama himself showed up in Boston to rally the base on Sunday.



Where does that leave us? On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite in the race. However, nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout. Clearly, Brown has the more enthusiastic support and has run a better campaign. If turnout remains low, he is likely to win. That’s why the president went to Boston. If his appearance boosts turnout among Democrats, the Democrat will win.
That’s a long way around saying that we’re right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...tts_on_tuesday

[Baddaz]

hortical, i have to agree with you... she is a bore and unimpressive... she had this election and is blowing it...

the strongest democratic candidate did not win the democratic primary... martha benefited from campaigning while ted kennedy was sick while her opposition did not campaign out of respect for ted... the democratic women voted her in (hillary style) at the expense of the stronger candidate (capuano) and now she proving to be an inferior candidate statewide...

i am hoping for her to win but it is close when it should never have been close...

[Islandman]

I would have thought that the importance of passing health care would have been enough for her to win, but more and more it is obvious to me that this is not really as big a priority to the majority of Americans as I thought it would be. Those who support it are not that excited about it, those who are against it are very motivated to stop it. And maybe since Mass. already has state run health care it is even less of an issue in this race.

Sad to see it come to this. I guess either the House has to pass the bill as given to then by the Senate immediately or that is the end of it.

[Assasin]

the question is, is healthcare the only issue on the table in this race?
If so why the dem don't make it more about healthcare?

If the woman is so boring, why the dem don't bring in more heavyweight and backative?

Does the current economic crisis play a roll and the fact that 10 percent unemployed and the democratic base might not be so motivated? It would be interesting to see the survey, and of the black voters as oppose to last election.

[Hortical]

Comprehensive health insurance is already in the state and that may not be an overwhelming factor to support her. She has not distinguished herself as a strong candidate and from the beginning she was playing with 10 men in the box and campaigning not to lose. Sure the economy has a role to play and the republicans are fired up and motivated right now about their candidate. I do not see any enthusiasm from the democrats.

[Islandman]

Health care reform is just not a winning strategy anymore. In fact i don't know if it was ever one, people just not as interested as you would think they should be. I guess them or them family have to lose thier insurance first before they think about it seriously.

-----------------------------------------------------------
Analysis: Democrats' health care quest has soured

WASHINGTON – Democratic lawmakers who once saw health care overhaul as a historic quest are now anxious about getting the debate behind them, with Tuesday's Massachusetts Senate race underscoring how hard and joyless the effort has become.

Regardless of whether Democrat Martha Coakley squeaks past Republican Scott Brown, their down-to-the-wire campaign has shaken some Democrats' belief that most Americans will see the proposed health delivery changes as worthwhile. Emboldened Republicans, meanwhile, see the Democrat's struggle in liberal Massachusetts — where health care was a central issue — as a harbinger of GOP gains in November's midterm elections.

Even if the health legislation survives, the Massachusetts experience may erode congressional support for other priorities of President Barack Obama, such as energy and climate-change bills.

A Brown victory on Tuesday could quickly kill Obama's chief domestic priority, because Republicans could block further Senate action on health care with a filibuster. That would leave the White House and Democratic lawmakers with options ranging from bad to horrible.

Democrats could try a strong-arm tactic, such as rushing to hold a final Senate vote before Brown is sworn in, knowing it would ignite a ferocious public outcry.

On Monday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Democrats would press ahead on health care whatever the outcome in Massachusetts.

"Let's remove all doubt that we will have health care one way or another. Back to the drawing board means a great big zero for the American people," Pelosi told reporters in California.

If Brown wins, health care's fate will turn on the Democrats' answer to a wrenching question: Which is worse, enduring such a firestorm of criticism at the start of an election year, or admitting defeat on their top agenda item despite controlling the House, Senate and White House?

"I think Democrats fully understand they have to pass this legislation," said Ron Pollack, head of the Families USA advocacy group. "The alternative is an absolute disaster."

Others are less sure, and opponents have made it clear that they will interpret a Brown victory as a verdict against the Democrats' entire health care agenda.

"If Obama's plan doesn't fly in the most liberal state in this nation, the plan should be forever grounded," said Phil Kerpen of Patients First, a group opposed to the legislation.

Even if Coakley wins, her struggles have shaken some congressional Democrats who expect tough races in November. Colleagues are trying to reassure them, saying there will be time to explain to voters the benefits of the proposed health care package. The public will forget the parliamentary tactics that were used to pass it, no matter how ugly, these Democrats say.

Former President Bill Clinton urged House Democrats last week to do a better job of telling voters how the legislation would help them, such as expanding coverage to the uninsured and establishing networks to offer more insurance options.

"Put the corn where the hogs can get it," Clinton said, using a colorful phrase for making something clear and accessible, according to an aide who took notes at the speech.

Some are urging moderate Democrats not to view a razor-thin Coakley victory as a troubling sign, even in heavily Democratic Massachusetts.

"A win is a win," said Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J. "It's a wake-up call" for tough campaigning this fall, he said.

If Coakley loses, the White House's best hope of saving the health package may lie in trying to persuade the House to accept the bill the Senate passed last month. Obama could sign it into law without further Senate action.

That could be a tough sell. Many House Democrats already are furious at cuts to the original health care proposals demanded by the Senate, where rules give the minority Republicans considerable power. Accepting every comma of the Senate-passed bill, while dropping their own bill, could be more than some liberal House Democrats will swallow.

Some moderate Democrats might abandon the health bill for other reasons as they brace for tough GOP challenges this fall, although they could open themselves to charges of flip-flopping if they supported the legislation last month.

Liberals oppose the tax on high-cost insurance plans in the Senate bill, while anti-abortion Democrats have termed the Senate's approach to restricting taxpayer funding "unacceptable."

Catholic bishops adamantly oppose the Senate language restricting the use of taxpayer funds to pay for abortion. They support the House's harder line. Liberals, for their part, say the House bill would deny access to a legal medical procedure to millions of privately insured women.

As the clock ticks down on the Massachusetts election results, Democrats ponder a cruel irony: The death of Sen. Edward Kennedy, a lifelong champion of health care reform, has triggered the events that have put the effort at the verge of a last-minute demise.

[Baddaz]

i think the average american just do not understand how health care as it is today affects the american economy... the average american do not understand how much money is spent by the government today to the medical industry and how it affects american competitiveness...

the democrats have failed to articultate the issue in ways the average man on the streets can understand...

[Gamma]

it is one of those things where it is strictly "he who feels it knows" is the deciding factor. it seems that it may be too much of an idealistic concept for the person who is unaffected to be passionate enough about to take a stand whereas "you will pay more taxes" will always get attention and so they tie healthcare in to taxation and voila..the GOP has a formula that will get attention

[Assasin]

The problem is that most Americans don't want to look at other systems as it is "socialised healthcare" The republicans and others put fear in their heads and as you rightly say how much money is spent.

I think many understand but are not convinced there is a better way because of their lack of knowledge about others.