Tweet
Get ready for a Sino-American bi-polar world
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
We are no longer living in a world with a single superpower, and for the foreseeable future, we will operate in a bi-polar world dominated by the United States and China.
President Barack Obama's three-day visit to China is recognition of the economic interdependence and the importance of peaceful coexistence. As the century progresses, the common neologism "the Chinese Century" could describe reality.
The 19th Century was a British-dominated century, the 20th Century was one of American hegemony and this century could well be the Chinese epoch. The enormous growth of China has changed and will continue to change the pattern of trade, finance and investment in the world economy.
Their well-known modesty aside, China is forecasted to become the world's largest economy in 30 years. The rise towards economic dominance together with its enormous military prowess, ranging from nuclear weapons to the largest army in the world, will ensure that China's influence and power in international politics increase dramatically.
Even if such a tectonic shift does not materialise in the next 20-30 years, there will be a progressive reordering of global affairs in which China, along with Asia as a whole, will be prominent. China has gradually and quietly pursued a policy of more assertive engagement and influence in all aspects of international affairs. This style of diplomacy avoids imperial overstretch and takes cognisance of the historic fact that waning global powers do not readily accommodate rising powers.
Many in the American foreign policy cognoscenti believe that China is set on attaining global dominance and therefore the bilateral relationship is froth with mismatched interests, values and capabilities. The policy prescription which emanates from this perspective is that China is a threat, not a partner, and the US should counter China's rising influence in every region and arena.
China's rise is, in reality, a rebalancing of world affairs to take account of a nuclear power with the largest population in the world.
The Chinese perspective is that its development is simply destiny fulfilled by the inevitable and long-awaited turning of the "wheel of fortune" returning the civilisation of China to a position held for centuries before the usurpation by what it regarded as "barbarian" powers.
How the relationship between the United States and China evolves will be critical in determining the evolution of the global economy and the reconfiguration of power in international affairs. An important factor will be the willingness of the US to modify its traditional affinity for unipolar policy.
Economic interdependence will override any lingering Cold War animosity because the US is the largest export market for China's phenomenal growth and China is the largest foreign lender to the US, with implications for the exchange rate of the US$ and funding the fiscal deficit.
By its sheer size and phenomenal growth, China has already started to and will continue to seriously affect the economics, politics and culture of the world. This development will have implications for Jamaica's exports, imports, foreign investment, aid and tourism.
Whether the impact is negative or positive is up to us. But the question is, do we know enough about China? Are we thinking about how to make the best of the new opportunities? And are we preparing and planning? It is not too late, but it is certainly not too early.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
We are no longer living in a world with a single superpower, and for the foreseeable future, we will operate in a bi-polar world dominated by the United States and China.
President Barack Obama's three-day visit to China is recognition of the economic interdependence and the importance of peaceful coexistence. As the century progresses, the common neologism "the Chinese Century" could describe reality.
The 19th Century was a British-dominated century, the 20th Century was one of American hegemony and this century could well be the Chinese epoch. The enormous growth of China has changed and will continue to change the pattern of trade, finance and investment in the world economy.
Their well-known modesty aside, China is forecasted to become the world's largest economy in 30 years. The rise towards economic dominance together with its enormous military prowess, ranging from nuclear weapons to the largest army in the world, will ensure that China's influence and power in international politics increase dramatically.
Even if such a tectonic shift does not materialise in the next 20-30 years, there will be a progressive reordering of global affairs in which China, along with Asia as a whole, will be prominent. China has gradually and quietly pursued a policy of more assertive engagement and influence in all aspects of international affairs. This style of diplomacy avoids imperial overstretch and takes cognisance of the historic fact that waning global powers do not readily accommodate rising powers.
Many in the American foreign policy cognoscenti believe that China is set on attaining global dominance and therefore the bilateral relationship is froth with mismatched interests, values and capabilities. The policy prescription which emanates from this perspective is that China is a threat, not a partner, and the US should counter China's rising influence in every region and arena.
China's rise is, in reality, a rebalancing of world affairs to take account of a nuclear power with the largest population in the world.
The Chinese perspective is that its development is simply destiny fulfilled by the inevitable and long-awaited turning of the "wheel of fortune" returning the civilisation of China to a position held for centuries before the usurpation by what it regarded as "barbarian" powers.
How the relationship between the United States and China evolves will be critical in determining the evolution of the global economy and the reconfiguration of power in international affairs. An important factor will be the willingness of the US to modify its traditional affinity for unipolar policy.
Economic interdependence will override any lingering Cold War animosity because the US is the largest export market for China's phenomenal growth and China is the largest foreign lender to the US, with implications for the exchange rate of the US$ and funding the fiscal deficit.
By its sheer size and phenomenal growth, China has already started to and will continue to seriously affect the economics, politics and culture of the world. This development will have implications for Jamaica's exports, imports, foreign investment, aid and tourism.
Whether the impact is negative or positive is up to us. But the question is, do we know enough about China? Are we thinking about how to make the best of the new opportunities? And are we preparing and planning? It is not too late, but it is certainly not too early.
Comment