US News & World Report: America DOWN..but Not Out

[Mosiah]

wi glad some a dem did tek up di offa!

[Muadib]

Yuh tink a you one.. South Florida glad tuh !

[Islandman]

Good enough example given the comparison. If I have to choose between another Afghanistan (or Yemen) or another Dubai, give me another Dubai every time.

[Yuttie]

as a tourist or worker?

[Islandman]

Yemen and Afghanistan have tourism? Or work for that matter?

[Yuttie]

!

[Don1]

The world is always changing and the US certainly has its share of problems, but the decline of the US has been greatly exaggerated before in the late 70s during the post-Vietnam, Cold war, Watergate, stagflation era and the initial rise of Japan.

During the 80s Japan real estate was a "sure thing" , the Nikkei was above 35000, the Japanese were buying all of New York , and the US had seen its best days, or so it was said.

Yet a strange thing happened. The Soviet Empire collapsed, the Japan stock market and Real Estate market went into a tailspin (20 years later the Nikkei is below 15000). The US found a way to control inflation, increase productivity, and as it turns out it became a more powerful military and economic superpower, indeed the ONLY superpower, in the 90s.

Of course that does not mean things will play out the same way over the next 20-30 years. But it does suggest than these things are impossible to predict with any degree of certainty. One or two unpredictable events can change everything.

China could be one mass uprising away from a chaotic state, or it could find a way to control its environmental and social problems and continue to grow at near double-digits rates for another decade. India could find itself under growing pressure from internal and external extremists (ie Taj Mahal hotel) , or it could control the information and communication technology service industries.

My general view is that unless major war or terrorism intervenes, most of the world will continue to advance and the perceived declines will be relative rather than absolute.

I am much more concerned about the people who comprise the so-called "bottom billion" who continue to live as thier foreparents did in the Middle Ages even as the other 5 billion of us advance economically at a faster and faster rate. Will most of the residents of the Caribbean fall into that bottom billion (no we are not there now)? Will most of Africa still be there? What happens to the Middle East when oil is no longer as important as it is today? Do we get more Afghanistans or more Dubais?

Can't argue too much with that...except to say that China's rise is fundamentally different from the Japan of the 1980's...

China is 10X the population and 25X the size of Japan...

Japan has only a self defense force and is occupied by the US army & forbidden from developing nuclear weapons....China is the diametric opposite on ALL counts.

China's development is just really starting....they are merely scratching the surface....the potential is enormous



Apples and oranges...but I agree the future is not certain.

[Jawge]

You are off the mark again and seeming to prove yuttie right too.
Right? Yes Only leftist idealist wish to see China arm a massive army to crush the big captialist hegemony of N. america.

Boss China's wealth came from trade (with the wealthy western bloc) and not by conquest. When China use this wealth to raise a massive army what happens to its 1.2 billion population ( that look at the western lifestyle with envy)?

How will China isolate Western Europe from the US? (the only way to mount a successful campaign) by signing alliance with Britain and France?
Why don't you stop opining and read what authorities on the subject has to say (Brzezinski with the grand Chessboard and Quigley in the Tragedy and hope). It takes a knowledge and understanding of history coupled with political science to make certain assesment.

Japan has a defence force?? Do you know that the US has now given Japn the right to patrol its own waters? (much to the protest of S.Korea and other neighbours) On Nuclear weapons: Given a month the Japanese factories can retool to produce this (as there is no lack of expertise there).

Boss do some reading , mi ah beg yuh. China is growing but not how you would want it.
Trust me.

Since it's apples and oranges; explain how China will contain Japan. Thanks.

[Don1]

You are off the mark again and seeming to prove yuttie right too.
Right? Yes Only leftist idealist wish to see China arm a massive army to crush the big captialist hegemony of N. america.

Are you daft?? Clearly you don't understand the difference between analysis and what you call a wish.

If CIA or defense analysts project that China will rival and/or surpass the US...does this mean that they "wish" this result??

When the IMF predicts that Jamaica will experience MUCH lower growth over the next 3-5 years (if any growth at all) as compared with its neighbours...do they WISH this result?

Get real.... mi ah get tiad ah di fooliniss.

Boss China's wealth came from trade (with the wealthy western bloc) and not by conquest. When China use this wealth to raise a massive army what happens to its 1.2 billion population ( that look at the western lifestyle with envy)?

This is an entirely different proposition....very tangential to the main argument.

Google tangential.

How will China isolate Western Europe from the US? (the only way to mount a successful campaign) by signing alliance with Britain and France?
Why don't you stop opining and read what authorities on the subject has to say (Brzezinski with the grand Chessboard and Quigley in the Tragedy and hope). It takes a knowledge and understanding of history coupled with political science to make certain assesment.

Again....don't argue with me...I am merely the messenger. Argue point by point with the professional analysts whose views I have reposted.

I ask again...yuh fraid fi guh pan di CIA site an download dem analysis??

Duh dat an refute fi dem conclusions....if yuh back broad enuff.

Japan has a defence force?? Do you know that the US has now given Japn the right to patrol its own waters? (much to the protest of S.Korea and other neighbours) On Nuclear weapons: Given a month the Japanese factories can retool to produce this (as there is no lack of expertise there).

You may have a clue regarding IT (sometimes) but when it comes to security issues you are lost...out of your depth.

Japan can patrol its territorial waters?? Yes!! That my friend...is the definition of SELF DEFENCE....thanks for proving my point.


By its US imposed constituition, Japan is forbidden from projecting power beyond its borders and is forced to accept US bases...whether or not it wants them. Yes Japan is among a number of nations (including Germany) that can produce nuclear weapons....given the opportunity...so what?? This latent ability does not disturb the main thesis of many analysts regarding a rising China.

As China rises it is probable that the US will allow Japan to beef up its forces as a counterfoil....that is an ongoing discussion between the US, Japan and regional countries with a history of conflict with Japan.
Japan is a militarily under US control...China is CLEARLY NOT...that was part of my point to Islandman.

Boss do some reading , mi ah beg yuh. China is growing but not how you would want it.
Trust me.

Since it's apples and oranges; explain how China will contain Japan. Thanks.

My views on the matter are what I want ....it's what I discern from trends. It is also what others who study the matter discern and project. Does this mean these US analysts find their own conclusions desirable?? Do they wish for US decline?? No....they are concerned AND perhaps alarmed.

Your arguments are fallacious.

There is a difference between analysis and value judgment. I engage in the former and you in the latter. You choose a preferred conclusion (ie maintenance of US hegemony) then argue around that....and appear unable to post any credible third party references to support your argument.

I examine professional analyses and post these analyses...address the security professionals' arguments and conclusions....if you dare.

There are competing viewpoints out there...find someone who is credible and with a contrasting and well reasoned view and post that.

[Yuttie]

why waste yo time Jawge?
BTW his so called report was not done by the CIA, it was done by an affiliate. The report had more to do with "what if" rather than "what will".

They also have an alternative in which Russia becomes the world power, one that states that the current economical crisis leading to global chaos,etc.

The great Silver Surfer failed to mention this:

As with the earlier NIC efforts—such as Mapping The Global Future 2020—the project's primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action. We also hope this paper stimulates a broader discussion of value to educational and policy institutions at home and abroad.

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

[Don1]

why waste yo time Jawge?
BTW his so called report was not done by the CIA, it was done by an affiliate. The report had more to do with "what if" rather than "what will".

They also have an alternative in which Russia becomes the world power, one that states that the current economical crisis leading to global chaos,etc.

The great Silver Surfer failed to mention this:

As with the earlier NIC efforts—such as Mapping The Global Future 2020—the project's primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action. We also hope this paper stimulates a broader discussion of value to educational and policy institutions at home and abroad.

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

Thanks for making my point. The bold stuff was unnecessary...even childish.

Fact is: The world order is changing gradually ....the future is uncertain.....one likely outcome is that China will become a dominant power.

Other outcomes are possible...all my posts have either stated or implied this truth....and if they didn't..that's what I believe.

Nothing is absolute or certain in projections.

You guys should learn how to debate...the basics are lacking.


Hope you're still boning up on that geography.

[Don1]

My views on the matter are what I want ....it's what I discern from trends.

That should be... "My views on the matter are NOT what I want....it's what I discern from the trends"

[Yuttie]

One doesn't disguise opinion pieces and hypothetics as facts or holistic forecast.

The highlight summarizes the piece and provided some visual aid for you...I have to look out for the elderly


yes I've been boning up on geography

[Don1]

One doesn't disguise opinion pieces and hypothetics as facts or holistic forecast.

The highlight summarizes the piece and provided some visual aid for you...I have to look out for the elderly


yes I've been boning up on geography

Glad to hear of your attempt to address the geography deficit. Return for evaluation after you have completed your study.



Look like yuh kno fi mi age...lol!! Tell mi is wha nuh?

[Yuttie]

well yo membah when di paper did a disparage Quarrie ina di 70's to dat gi mi a range..

47-54

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww