Passenger Rail Revival: Sense or Sentiment?

[Don1]

oh right.. mi figghet di sellout contract...

Story of 18 years undah PNP..

The Sell-Out years....

lol !

right

[Willi]

Dis train carry no backbiter...deeeees train! LoL

Lets see ... roadways are VERY expensive to maintain. Asphalt is an elastic compound that deforms and snaps back as vehicles pass over them. Excess loads snap the "elastic band" and the resulting fractures soon result in potholes, especially as we have a harsh climate where heavy rains and scorching sun take turns in beating down.

Given that we LOVE to run excess loads on reduced number of wheel axes, we basically shorten the life of all our road surfaces and sumbaddy gotta pay. On the Bouyges road, it is clear that they police better and that they are relatively free to pass on this cost to hapless consumers (Just like the JPS "garrison subsidy"). The normal consumer gets shafted. On regular GOJ roads, we also pay, but more in terms of greater debt, higher taxes or plain neglect (permanently bad roads).

The metro area is congested with cars, many of which have single occupants mostly. Not efficient.

Rail can provide much more efficient and clean mass transit. Imagine the link downtown, where the Kingston rail terminal is one short block away from the bus terminal (75-100m away). There is NO question that this is potentially a much better inter-island transit scheme (hub and spoke) than discrete busses belching diesel fumes islandwide on their way to Kingston. Of course, we know that by the time they hit the traffic jams from Spanish Town, the sense of the rail approach will manifest itself as a viable alternative.

What makes passenger rail viable in Jamaica is the non-necessity of expensive automatic rail crossing apparatus. Where the rail does cross roads (not so often in Jam), we can use our manual JRC employee solution, that ensures employment and keep capital costs down. This I got back in 1991 from a Jakan and UK rail experts in Jamaica.

As to the Hwy2000 contract exemption, I have no idea about that, so cant address. It potentially COULD be a showstopper, as I will freely acknowledge. I wont comment on Portie rail either, though I do think it may have touristic implications.

As for passenger rail, look how its done in India!!! It is their primary communication link. Their trains are reliable, even if rustic.

Finally, we are NOT talking about passenger rail by itself. If the lines are linked with Vernamfield and whatever freezone idea prevails, Caymanas or preferably Port Esquivel, then the multi-modal tranp. links will have the necessary synergies and economies of scale to handle passengers. Passengers could be the add-on to what is essentially a cargo transport system, that would get the damaging heavy cargo trucks off our roads!

In parts of Switzerland, these trucks MUST be put on rail when transiting the countries going on to Italy and Germany!

[Don1]

Dis train carry no backbiter...deeeees train! LoL

Lets see ... roadways are VERY expensive to maintain. Asphalt is an elastic compound that deforms and snaps back as vehicles pass over them. Excess loads snap the "elastic band" and the resulting fractures soon result in potholes, especially as we have a harsh climate where heavy rains and scorching sun take turns in beating down.

True Willi...but our roads are in place already with expansion plans and support structures in place...ie our road system represents massive "sunk costs". Jamaica has one of the world's highest densities of roadway....with roads into virtually every nook and cranny of the country.

Building passenger rail with borrowed money and no certainty of people using it, in a situation where our highways are already underutilized because of poor spatial planning....that would be a disaster.

Given that we LOVE to run excess loads on reduced number of wheel axes, we basically shorten the life of all our road surfaces and sumbaddy gotta pay. On the Bouyges road, it is clear that they police better and that they are relatively free to pass on this cost to hapless consumers (Just like the JPS "garrison subsidy"). The normal consumer gets shafted. On regular GOJ roads, we also pay, but more in terms of greater debt, higher taxes or plain neglect (permanently bad roads).

The metro area is congested with cars, many of which have single occupants mostly. Not efficient.

All true....but rail will not address intra-metro transit.... but rather inter-metro. Both road and rail are expensive and suited to or optimal in different geographical & socioeconomic scenarios...there is no blanket solution which fits all scenarios well.

With the tremendous roadway network (even if in poor condition) and vast support infrastucture of the motor vehicle industry (ie our sunk costs)...Jamaica is better off making road passenger transportation systems more efficient (reducing the carrying cost) ....rather than building a new one to compete...both systems will lose.

Rail can provide much more efficient and clean mass transit Imagine the link downtown, where the Kingston rail terminal is one short block away from the bus terminal (75-100m away). There is NO question that this is potentially a much better inter-island transit scheme (hub and spoke) than discrete busses belching diesel fumes islandwide on their way to Kingston. Of course, we know that by the time they hit the traffic jams from Spanish Town, the sense of the rail approach will manifest itself as a viable alternative.

All true...but the great theory of a massive new passenger rail system would soon be derailed by adverse economic realities in Jamaica.

We cannot currently pay for our roads from our income...we use debt. How would we pay for building and supporting passenger rail? Answer: More debt. And remember...even with the new passenger rail debt Jamaica will still have to service the debt generated by its legacy road network...that is not going away.

What makes passenger rail viable in Jamaica is the non-necessity of expensive automatic rail crossing apparatus. Where the rail does cross roads (not so often in Jam), we can use our manual JRC employee solution, that ensures employment and keep capital costs down. This I got back in 1991 from a Jakan and UK rail experts in Jamaica.

To build dedicated passenger rail now as some propose (not you necessarily) would be a crazy gimmick. Our relatively rich neighbor Trinidad...a few years ago announced a US$3B-$7B commuter rail boondoggle...accepted bids from European giants..Bouygues, Alstom and others... dat deh plan stuck rite yahnow.

Trinidad perhaps can afford that dedicated system...Jamaica cannot...not even a fraction of that.

As to the Hwy2000 contract exemption, I have no idea about that, so cant address. It potentially COULD be a showstopper, as I will freely acknowledge. I wont comment on Portie rail either, though I do think it may have touristic implications.

It is a showstopper...Regardless of the question of legal impediments to a competing transit system to HWY2K/Bolt Expressway....Jamaicans will go for the car solution once it's available rather than rail transit.

What GOJ should do is reorient development to the HWY2K corridor...unlock the massive value of the area that HWY2K has enabled.....which is why siting the proposed commercial development in Caymanas has such a high opportunity cost....and is less optimal than a HWY2k location....poor prioritizing as usual....myopic.

With development in the HWY corridor...we can introduce large commuter bus service and not clog the road wid pure cyar..

As for passenger rail, look how its done in India!!! It is their primary communication link. Their trains are reliable, even if rustic.

India does not have a modern highway system...they have always relied mainly on rail....apples & oranges....Jamaica is the diametric opposite.
The lack of a highway network has been identified as a major bottleneck to India's development...unlike China which has built a massive system.

Finally, we are NOT talking about passenger rail by itself. If the lines are linked with Vernamfield and whatever freezone idea prevails, Caymanas or preferably Port Esquivel, then the multi-modal tranp. links will have the necessary synergies and economies of scale to handle passengers. Passengers could be the add-on to what is essentially a cargo transport system, that would get the damaging heavy cargo trucks off our roads!

In parts of Switzerland, these trucks MUST be put on rail when transiting the countries going on to Italy and Germany!

Switzerland??!!! I don't believe you made that particular reference in this discussion Willi!! Mi naah even touch dat.

I agree with you here somewhat however. To me passenger rail only makes sense in Jamaica at this time as a very limited adjunct to bulk cargo service on a point to point basis. Where it is established that cargo is viable ...add a few cars for passengers....if people will go to points close to where the cargo is headed.
This would move only a small fraction of the passenger market under physical circumstances that are definitely NOT attractive to passengers....which would mean the fares would have to be lower than in a dedicated passenger system.

This cargo/passenger hybrid would also probably preclude passenger rail service into the central urban cores .... how are you gonna manage quarter or half mile long trains within a Jamaican urban environment? How are passenger & cargo schedules gonna be reconciled?


It jus nuh wuk anyway yuh slice it....it's nice as an exercise in nostalgia ....but mi cyaan see it ah spell sense economically.

Wi nuh reddy fi rail yet.

[Mosiah]

Deal with the security issue. That's what it will all come down to.

[Don1]

Deal with the security issue. That's what it will all come down to.

I think that can be managed with the proper systems...which will add more cost and more debt...and less viability.

I think the economics rule everytime.

[Mosiah]

key words - less viability! you'd need security officer in every car and him cyaan tun him back!

[Don1]

key words - less viability! you'd need security officer in every car and him cyaan tun him back!

Maybe yuh install ah bullet proof security cubicle in each cyar wid metal detectors embedded in each doorway??

Dat cudda wuk??

[Mosiah]

yes, if financed by you!

[Don1]

yes, if financed by you!

lol!

[Willi]

I was assured by that UK expert back then that just a portmore to Kgn passenger network would make huge profits! He was confident that Span Town to Kgn was a winner.

You make good points but I think you also forget that the Port of Kingston on Garvey Drive (where Tinson Pen is) is a MAJOR potential cargo hub for the railway. They could offload the cargo cars there and continue downtown with just the passengers. Just would need rail interchanges there.

The more I think of it, the better it seems if we get the right financiers...ie THE CHINESE as a part of their lease of the Ports of Kgn and Pt Esquivel. Imagine if this was their Western Hemispheric hub??? No debt involved, indeed, they would pay us!!!! Tek a US$5b fi a 50 year lease and tell dem fi run wid it!

Trust me, just the savings of getting overladened trucks of the GOJ roads will pay for the rail service. After Japan, we have the 2nd densest road network in the world (not surprising as we have 10,000 communities in JamRock). The cost to maintain them (badly) is oppressive and to maintain them properly, astronomical.

Strange equation are out there. Buckminster Fuller postulated that building a plastic geodesic dome over the island of Manhatten can be paid for in 2 years with the savings of snow clearing costs for those 2 years and after its pure benefit!!!

[Don1]

I was assured by that UK expert back then that just a portmore to Kgn passenger network would make huge profits! He was confident that Span Town to Kgn was a winner.

You make good points but I think you also forget that the Port of Kingston on Garvey Drive (where Tinson Pen is) is a MAJOR potential cargo hub for the railway. They could offload the cargo cars there and continue downtown with just the passengers. Just would need rail interchanges there.

The more I think of it, the better it seems if we get the right financiers...ie THE CHINESE as a part of their lease of the Ports of Kgn and Pt Esquivel. Imagine if this was their Western Hemispheric hub??? No debt involved, indeed, they would pay us!!!! Tek a US$5b fi a 50 year lease and tell dem fi run wid it!

Trust me, just the savings of getting overladened trucks of the GOJ roads will pay for the rail service. After Japan, we have the 2nd densest road network in the world (not surprising as we have 10,000 communities in JamRock). The cost to maintain them (badly) is oppressive and to maintain them properly, astronomical.

Strange equation are out there. Buckminster Fuller postulated that building a plastic geodesic dome over the island of Manhatten can be paid for in 2 years with the savings of snow clearing costs for those 2 years and after its pure benefit!!!

Your UK guy spoke prior to HWY2K...yes?
That development totally changed the equation.

I like the Buckminster Fuller reference but few took him seriously....unfortunately?

I'm just concerned about building another transportation system considering..wi nuh ave nuh money plus...yaad man (an woman) love bem cyar ting.... ie both the social & economic equation.


You are right....IF the Chinese invest in a Jamaica Logistics Center in a massive way...it may be economic to tack a passenger rail service onto the cargo infrastructure.

That would indeed be a game changer.

Respek

[Willi]

Good discussion!

Points make and taken all over...and the situation is much clearer for both of us.

Yes, the UK guy was 1991 or so.

[Muadib]

Any discussion of Economic development of Jamaica that does NOT include rail transport is.. well.. inane at best.

Yuh have time.

[Don1]

Good discussion!

Points make and taken all over...and the situation is much clearer for both of us.

Yes, the UK guy was 1991 or so.

Good ting di argument done before di eediat ting start.

lol!

Respek