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    Budget shocker - Gov't plans to spend $6b more than initially projected

    Published: Wednesday | September 23, 2009


    Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter

    Prime Minister Bruce Golding (right) and Finance Minister Audley Shaw in Parliament yesterday. - photos by Rudolph Brown/Photographer
    The Government has tacked on just over $6 billion to its spending plans for the fiscal year despite repeated pronouncements from Prime Minister Bruce Golding that a major shortfall in revenue would lead to a sharp cut in the Budget.
    The first Supplementary Estimates tabled in Parliament yesterday, which disclosed that the Golding administration now plans to spend $561.4 billion this year instead of the $555 initially budgeted, was met with gasps of disbelief.
    That is a reversal of the Government's position announced just over one month ago when the prime minister told the nation that he had instructed permanent secretaries to cut 20 per cent of the $84 billion which was allocated on the recurrent side of the initial Budget for programmes.
    Golding later told journalists at a post-Cabinet media briefing that between 10 and 15 per cent would be cut from the capital Budget.
    Those statements were given more weight when the finance ministry released figures for the first four months of the fiscal year, April-July, showing revenue of $9.6 billion or more than 10 per cent below projection.
    But the document tabled yesterday showed the recurrent side of the Budget being increased by just over $12 billion or a little more than three per cent, while the capital side was cut by $6 billion.
    On the recurrent side, the majority of the increase - $16.2 billion - was added for interest payment.
    The Supplementary Estimates, which will be examined by the standing finance committee next week, noted that almost $12 billion of that amount was related to additional requirements. Those requirements, according to the estimates, are due to higher-than-projected issues of debenture/bonds, as well as higher-than-projected interest rates.
    Interest on boj stock
    A further $2.2 billion of the increase was tacked on because of higher-than-projected interest rates on special local registered stock issued to the Bank of Jamaica.
    The Government projects to save a bundle because of a lower-than-projected exchange rate on the United States dollar but expects to pay more because the exchange rate on the euro is higher than anticipated.
    The estimates also show the Government removing the $8 billion that it had allocated to the finance ministry for contingencies such as paying retroactive money to teachers.
    Other major changes on the recurrent side include a further $908 million allocated to Local Government in the Office of the Prime Minister to pay for street lights and $450 million to pay salary arrears due to members of the Jamaica Defence Force.
    However, the Jamaica Constabulary Force loses $600 million while most other government ministries and departments also see cuts in their money for housekeeping expenses.
    The exceptions include the ministries of Education and Health.
    The Andrew Holness-led education ministry gets just under $4 billion more to pay teachers' salaries and a further $600 million for the school-feeding programme while Rudyard Spencer, at the health ministry, will have $430 million to meet the 15 per cent increase in the salaries of nurses.
    On the capital side, most ministries had their budgets cut as the Government reduced its planned spending by approximately three per cent.
    The ministries of Education and Transport and Works were the big losers while others had smaller cuts and the finance ministry had its allocation almost unchanged.
    Less for education
    Education lost $921 million, which had been allocated for the transformation programme, and $155 million on the International Development Bank-funded primary-education support project.
    The transport and works ministry lost $1.4 billion which was allocated for several projects but this is expected to be more than covered by the special consumption tax on fuel which should give Mike Henry and his team $1.8 billion for the fiscal year.
    A number of international-funded programmes out of the transport and works ministry, including the CDB part-funded Tropical Storm Gustav rehabilitation work, will also be slowed down or otherwise delayed.
    arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com



    http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/glean...ead/lead1.html
    "Jamaica's future reflects its past, having attained only one per cent annual growth over 30 years whilst neighbours have grown at five per cent." (Article)

  • #2
    Money worries - Analysts wonder how Government will finance increased Budget

    Published: Wednesday | September 23, 2009



    Several questions are now being asked about how the Government will finance the $561-billion revised Budget tabled in Parliament yesterday.
    Finance Minister Audley Shaw had previously announced an $18-billion tax package to finance the initial $555-billion Budget with plans to borrow $215.8 billion and a fiscal deficit of 5.5 per cent.
    But Shaw's revenue projections are way off target since the start of the year with $86.2 billion collected in the first four months instead of the projected $95.9 billion.
    This has left the Government with a $9.7-billion shortfall and a fiscal deficit of $52.6 billion instead of the projected $49.5 billion.

    Shed light on funding
    Against this background, Shaw is expected to tell the country next week how the Government will first come up with the $6 billion that it has added to its spending plans, while finding the money it will need for the revenue shortfall.

    "If the Government
    is not projecting a wider fiscal deficit, then there will have to be some revenue enhancing measures or increased borrowing," Ralston Hyman, financial analyst, told The Gleaner yesterday.
    "Since the revised Budget is bigger than initially announced, it must mean that the Government is identifying new sources of revenue or additional borrowing if it is going to meet the fiscal target," Hyman added, as he expressed surprise at the increased spending plan.
    He was supported by financial analyst and Gleaner business columnist Anne Shirley who noted that even if the Government gets the US$1.2 billion standby arrangement from the International Monetary Fund, this would not impact on its efforts to finance the Budget. "While the $6 billion is not a big increase in terms of the per cent of the Budget, it should be a worry for the Government which was already struggling to finance the initial $555-billion Budget," Shirley said.

    http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/glean...ead/lead2.html
    "Jamaica's future reflects its past, having attained only one per cent annual growth over 30 years whilst neighbours have grown at five per cent." (Article)

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    • #3
      we will find out soon

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