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EDITORIAL - Nothing for the PNP to celebrate
Published: Tuesday | September 8, 2009
BEFORE THE People's National Party (PNP) gets into a celebratory tizzy over the recent Bill Johnson poll results showing it ahead of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), it needs to take a closer look at the numbers.
It will find that stripped to the core, there is not much in the data to be excited about, except, perhaps, for the confirmation, as Edward Seaga, the ex-JLP leader, long ago conceded, that the PNP enjoys a natural majority in Jamaica.
Mr Seaga said at the time that Jamaicans voted for the JLP in crisis. His analysis then did not extend to what happens if the crisis occurs when the JLP is in office
, such as the one that confronts the economy. But there is nothing in the findings by pollster Bill Johnson, and published over the past week, to suggest that people are bolting to the Opposition.
No influence in big picture
We, of course, do not belittle the six-point lead in popular support enjoyed by the PNP (37 per cent) over the JLP (31 per cent). But these figures have to be placed in a larger context.
First, there is the worst global recession in decades that exacerbated already deep troubles in Jamaica's economy, to which Prime Minister Bruce Golding has admitted that his government's
response was slow.
Indeed, not only does 55 per cent of voting age Jamaicans disapprove of the Government's handling of the economy, but nearly two-thirds say the country is heading in the wrong direction and that their situation had deteriorated in the two years the JLP has been in office.
In that circumstance, it might be expected people would be hankering for a change of government. The Opposition then would be able to count on the support of a clear majority. Yet, only 38 per cent of Jamaicans would clearly relish the idea of an early vote - and the vast majority of those are PNP supporters. Fifty-five per cent reject the idea.
The diehards
Moreover, the 37 per cent of the electorate that definitively declared in favour of the PNP if an election was held now is close to the party's support at the time of the 2007 general election. Significantly, the PNP's current standing is only one percentage point better than a year ago, and well within the survey's margin of error of three per cent.
But perhaps the more fundamental point for PNP policymakers is that of the people who say they would vote for the party, by far the largest chunk - 41 per cent - would do so because to cast their ballot for the PNP is family tradition. These are the diehards.
A mere 14 per cent would vote for the PNP because they feel it capable of doing "a better job" than the current administration. And therein lies the rub for the PNP - its failure to articulate a coherent and internally logical suite of policies and to outline a strategic frame for their implementation.
In others words, its proposed so-called People's Agenda remains ephemeral. Its job, therefore, is to present a clear and obviously workable alternative to what exists
For now, the PNP can count on, as the numbers suggest, more hard-core support than the JLP. It is doubtful that, in a crisis, this will translate to votes in the ballot box.
The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published
Published: Tuesday | September 8, 2009
BEFORE THE People's National Party (PNP) gets into a celebratory tizzy over the recent Bill Johnson poll results showing it ahead of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), it needs to take a closer look at the numbers.
It will find that stripped to the core, there is not much in the data to be excited about, except, perhaps, for the confirmation, as Edward Seaga, the ex-JLP leader, long ago conceded, that the PNP enjoys a natural majority in Jamaica.
Mr Seaga said at the time that Jamaicans voted for the JLP in crisis. His analysis then did not extend to what happens if the crisis occurs when the JLP is in office
, such as the one that confronts the economy. But there is nothing in the findings by pollster Bill Johnson, and published over the past week, to suggest that people are bolting to the Opposition.
No influence in big picture
We, of course, do not belittle the six-point lead in popular support enjoyed by the PNP (37 per cent) over the JLP (31 per cent). But these figures have to be placed in a larger context.
First, there is the worst global recession in decades that exacerbated already deep troubles in Jamaica's economy, to which Prime Minister Bruce Golding has admitted that his government's
response was slow.
Indeed, not only does 55 per cent of voting age Jamaicans disapprove of the Government's handling of the economy, but nearly two-thirds say the country is heading in the wrong direction and that their situation had deteriorated in the two years the JLP has been in office.
In that circumstance, it might be expected people would be hankering for a change of government. The Opposition then would be able to count on the support of a clear majority. Yet, only 38 per cent of Jamaicans would clearly relish the idea of an early vote - and the vast majority of those are PNP supporters. Fifty-five per cent reject the idea.
The diehards
Moreover, the 37 per cent of the electorate that definitively declared in favour of the PNP if an election was held now is close to the party's support at the time of the 2007 general election. Significantly, the PNP's current standing is only one percentage point better than a year ago, and well within the survey's margin of error of three per cent.
But perhaps the more fundamental point for PNP policymakers is that of the people who say they would vote for the party, by far the largest chunk - 41 per cent - would do so because to cast their ballot for the PNP is family tradition. These are the diehards.
A mere 14 per cent would vote for the PNP because they feel it capable of doing "a better job" than the current administration. And therein lies the rub for the PNP - its failure to articulate a coherent and internally logical suite of policies and to outline a strategic frame for their implementation.
In others words, its proposed so-called People's Agenda remains ephemeral. Its job, therefore, is to present a clear and obviously workable alternative to what exists
For now, the PNP can count on, as the numbers suggest, more hard-core support than the JLP. It is doubtful that, in a crisis, this will translate to votes in the ballot box.
The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published
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