152 murdered in May

[Don1]

The list old. Iceland and Belgium get big score, yet we know that Iceland Hedge fund get lick and Belgium's debt dwarf their GDP.

Yes but those are temporary financial problems. Iceland and Belgium are socially stable and functioning normally. There is financial dislocation but no societal breakdown.

They can't be confused with failed states or be seen to be on that pathway.

[Historian]

My Position

I believe you have the terms of the financing provided by these 2 institutions reversed.

You are correct, Don1, and thanks for pointing out this error.

The fact that the IMF provides short-term loans aimed at ensuring monetary and balance of payments stability and that the World Bank provides long-term development loans is, in fact, something I’ve always known (lol). I really can’t understand how I inadvertently reversed the terms of loans provided by these two institutions! Let me take that back…. I suspect that the error was brought about by the effects of the colored stuff I was drinking around the time I made that post.

Jamaica is far from being a failed state. Those who believe that are alarmists.

Jamaica is a functioning democracy ... but one with severe systemic problems.

Is Jamaica a failed state? I certainly agree with you that it is not a failed state, and that it still is indeed a “functioning democracy.”

In fact, in yesterday’s post, I did not say that Jamaica is a failed state. What I did was pose this question: “Is Jamaica approaching that unenviable socio-economic condition where we’re ready to be classified as a ‘Failed State’?”

However, while I agree with the eight points (I really have a problem with #8) you listed in support of your position, where we seemingly have a disagreement is with your words “far from” (as in “far from being a failed state”).

The truth is, Don1, that in my opinion there are dark forces at work in Jamaica right now that will, if not checked immediately by genuine proactive action on the part of our decision-makers and also the ordinary man and woman in our various communities, will without doubt make the “failed state” scenario a reality eventually. Maybe sooner than we think!


What are these “dark forces” I’m referring to?

While your list (with which I agree) includes what I’ll refer to here as the superstructure, underneath this superstructure is an economic and social foundation that is rotting away rapidly! To use a crude simile, Jamaica today is like a person with a physically attractive body who is, nevertheless, rotting away inside from the ravages of an incurable cancerous growth.

1. Mushrooming Debt: The Caribbean Policy Research Institute’s report a year ago stated that Jamaica is the fourth most indebted country in the world with a debt to GDP ration of some 132-percent (end of 2007)!

Without going further into the economics of it all, it should suffice to say here that Jamaica has an extremely high debt burden that has skyrocketed to the point where well over a half of the country’s foreign exchange earnings is channeled into debt repayment. The result of this is that the standard of living of the average Jamaica has diminished drastically as government finds it increasingly difficult to meet the infrastructural, etc. needs of diverse communities.

2. Skyrocketing Crime: The first post in this thread states that the homicide count for the month of May is 152. In a nation of an estimated 2.7 million people, these are frightening statistics, and statistics not typical of peace-time countries!

3. Rapidly Ballooning Cost of Living: I’m sure you are aware that many Jamaicans find it very challenging to purchase essential items because of the cost measured against their wages. Food shopping at the local supermarket on a typical weekend, for many Jamaicans, is an exercise in skillful balancing of what little money they have.

4. Inaccessible Communities: Like Afghanistan, Somalia, etc. where wide territories are inaccessible to the state’s law enforcement agencies, Jamaica’s dons hold similar sway in several communities. The difference between Jamaica’s “war lords” and those of Somalia and company is that Jamaica’s dons have a much smaller area (Jamaica is a tiny island), and so the magnitude of the difficulties are, in a sense, comparatively less (for example, while it’s difficult and really challenging at times for our security forces to get into some “fiefdoms,” it’s not totally impossible).

In conclusion, I need to point out in the briefest way possible that Somalia and other “failed states” did not start out as failed states.

[Islandman]

Good points Historian. I think #4 is the one that poses the most danger for us. As bad as the other three are, that is the one where small parts of Jamaica really resemble typical failed states.

I have noticed those similarities between the Somali pirates and the Jamaican dons myself. Same concept, the difference is the extent of thier power and influence.

[Historian]

You're Quite Right

Good points Historian. I think #4 is the one that poses the most danger for us. As bad as the other three are, that is the one where small parts of Jamaica really resemble typical failed states.

I have noticed those similarities between the Somali pirates and the Jamaican dons myself. Same concept, the difference is the extent of thier power and influence.

You’re correct that #4 is the one that most readily brings to mind “failed states” like Somalia (and Afghanistan as well).

To be honest, though, #2 (extremely high homicide rate per capita) worries me just as much, because there seems to be no dent made in crime over the past several years, despite the many efforts on the part of both the PNP and the JLP governments! We’ve formed about a million different crime fighting bodies, from as far back as the 1970s-1980s Operation Eradication squad, straight down through the intervening years to much more elite security groups like Operation Kingsfish today (which utilizes intelligence gathering), but the homicide statistics keep staying at incredible levels! In desperation we’ve hired several ex-Scotland Yard officials, that is, elite British officers, but the homicide stats remain high.

Islandman, there are some Jamaicans who try to downplay the consequences of the high incidents of homicide, but this is ingenious on their part because the effects of such an intolerably high murder rate ripple across the entire island, way beyond the immediate communities affected, and even far outside the borders of Jamaica. A chat with nurses and doctors at any major hospital (KPH, Spanish Town Hospital, May Pen Hospital, etc.) will reveal the high stress levels experienced by hospital workers, the huge demand for blood that constantly exists, the drain on resources, etc.

With increasing and widespread unemployment (see, for example, the parish of Manchester in the aftermath of the bauxite company closure), and the additional personal and family stress that unemployment brings, we can realistically expect to see a marked increase in all sorts of crime.

Finally, despite the couple of hotel investments by Spanish investors, high crime rates such as ours act as a deterrent to serious investment! I could give first-hand specifics of this, but it wouldn’t be wise for me to do so.

[Don1]

You are correct, Don1, and thanks for pointing out this error.

The fact that the IMF provides short-term loans aimed at ensuring monetary and balance of payments stability and that the World Bank provides long-term development loans is, in fact, something I’ve always known (lol). I really can’t understand how I inadvertently reversed the terms of loans provided by these two institutions! Let me take that back…. I suspect that the error was brought about by the effects of the colored stuff I was drinking around the time I made that post.



Is Jamaica a failed state? I certainly agree with you that it is not a failed state, and that it still is indeed a “functioning democracy.”

In fact, in yesterday’s post, I did not say that Jamaica is a failed state. What I did was pose this question: “Is Jamaica approaching that unenviable socio-economic condition where we’re ready to be classified as a ‘Failed State’?”

However, while I agree with the eight points (I really have a problem with #8) you listed in support of your position, where we seemingly have a disagreement is with your words “far from” (as in “far from being a failed state”).

The truth is, Don1, that in my opinion there are dark forces at work in Jamaica right now that will, if not checked immediately by genuine proactive action on the part of our decision-makers and also the ordinary man and woman in our various communities, will without doubt make the “failed state” scenario a reality eventually. Maybe sooner than we think!


What are these “dark forces” I’m referring to?

While your list (with which I agree) includes what I’ll refer to here as the superstructure, underneath this superstructure is an economic and social foundation that is rotting away rapidly! To use a crude simile, Jamaica today is like a person with a physically attractive body who is, nevertheless, rotting away inside from the ravages of an incurable cancerous growth.

1. Mushrooming Debt: The Caribbean Policy Research Institute’s report a year ago stated that Jamaica is the fourth most indebted country in the world with a debt to GDP ration of some 132-percent (end of 2007)!

Without going further into the economics of it all, it should suffice to say here that Jamaica has an extremely high debt burden that has skyrocketed to the point where well over a half of the country’s foreign exchange earnings is channeled into debt repayment. The result of this is that the standard of living of the average Jamaica has diminished drastically as government finds it increasingly difficult to meet the infrastructural, etc. needs of diverse communities.

2. Skyrocketing Crime: The first post in this thread states that the homicide count for the month of May is 152. In a nation of an estimated 2.7 million people, these are frightening statistics, and statistics not typical of peace-time countries!

3. Rapidly Ballooning Cost of Living: I’m sure you are aware that many Jamaicans find it very challenging to purchase essential items because of the cost measured against their wages. Food shopping at the local supermarket on a typical weekend, for many Jamaicans, is an exercise in skillful balancing of what little money they have.

4. Inaccessible Communities: Like Afghanistan, Somalia, etc. where wide territories are inaccessible to the state’s law enforcement agencies, Jamaica’s dons hold similar sway in several communities. The difference between Jamaica’s “war lords” and those of Somalia and company is that Jamaica’s dons have a much smaller area (Jamaica is a tiny island), and so the magnitude of the difficulties are, in a sense, comparatively less (for example, while it’s difficult and really challenging at times for our security forces to get into some “fiefdoms,” it’s not totally impossible).

In conclusion, I need to point out in the briefest way possible that Somalia and other “failed states” did not start out as failed states.

ok boss.

[Exile]

117th vs 123? Am I missing the point here???