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  • Cuba uncertain in the face of change

    Socialism and sacrifice in Cuba By Will Stebbins, Al Jazeera Americas bureau chief


    The future for future generations of Cubans remains uncertain [GALLO/GETTY]
    In 2006, Juan Barreto, the then mayor of Caracas, announced that the city's famous country club, a meeting place for the city's well off, would be seized and converted into public housing.
    However, he was promptly informed by Vincente Rangel, the vice-president, that 'El Country' was off limits.
    The move illuminates one of the defining characteristics of socialism in Venezuela, and what distinguishes it from its ideological predecessor, Cuba.
    In Venezuela, the so-called Bolivarian revolution implemented by Hugo Chavez, the president, co-exists with country clubs, and, indeed, weekend trips to Miami.
    Despite the talk of land expropriations, the class structure there remains intact, and the government dispenses its vast oil revenue without asking for anything in return but loyalty.
    It has been described as "socialism without sacrifice".
    Though Chavez has always claimed Cuba as both his model and inspiration, and has become its prime benefactor, he often upstages his Caribbean comrades.
    On last year's May Day, Chavez dominated many news reports by announcing a 30 per cent pay rise for public employees; while in Cuba, the newly confirmed president, Raul Castro watched the parades in silence.
    With the collapse of oil prices, there will be no repeat performance in Venezuela this year, where Chavez has already informed oil workers that there will be no salary increases.
    This may confirm suspicions in Washington, ever on the lookout for signs that left-wing populism is unsustainable, but the drama in Venezuela is that the announcement runs contrary to what has come to be expected of the Bolivarian revolution.
    Culture of struggle
    For a generation of Cubans, born after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and raised during the ensuing times of extreme economic hardship, known as the "special period," socialism has inevitably come to be associated with scarcity and sacrifice.

    Cuba's revolutionary leaders still loom large
    in the public consciousness [AFP]
    At the recent celebrations for the 50th anniversary of the revolution, there was one phrase of Raul's older brother, Fidel Castro, that became a theme.
    "This is a happy moment," the leader of the revolution announced to the celebrating crowds on January 1st, 1959, "but we must not allow our joy to distract us from the hard times ahead – far harder even than we have faced so far".
    Thus, in its very moment of triumph, there was the anticipation of a long, hard struggle to preserve what had been won.
    Resistance to the US' attempts to destabilise Cuba, coupled with the sacrifices necessary to safeguard the gains of the revolution, have come to define socialism on the Caribbean island.
    Yet, much like the US "Greatest Generation", who fought in the second world war, the memory of The Bay of Pigs (when the US made a failed attempt to overthrow Fidel Castro in 1961) and the bearded revolutionaries have begun to fade.
    They retain political power but their significance for a younger generation of Cubans is in doubt.
    Hugo Chavez has borrowed the language of resistance, and he also has reason to be wary of Washington, whose silence during the coup that briefly overthrew him in 2002 remains an open sore.
    After the famous handshake with Barack Obama, the US president, in Trinidad at the Summit of the Americas, and his clear victory in the latest referendum on term limits, the only real threat to his Bolivarian revolution is falling oil prices.
    A new idea of work
    In China, the Communist party maintains a monopoly on political power, but market forces have been unleashed and a consumerist society created.

    Hugo Chavez, right, is a staunch ally
    of Raul Castro [AFP]
    It has responded to the global economic crisis not with a programme of austerity, but with a massive economic stimulus to keep the Chinese consuming.
    In his year-end address to the National Assembly, Raul Castro offered a sober assessment of the state of the Cuban economy.
    There again was the familiar theme of sacrifice, as the new president announced the necessary structural adjustments to face the tough times ahead, but he also, significantly, raised the issue of incentives.
    Cuba has neither the oil wealth of Venezuela nor the size of China, which limits its options, but there does appear to be the recognition that the collective imperative to resist aggression and preserve the revolution may not be enough to get a younger generation to work.
    Raul was talking about wages, and this subject may just contain a clear signal of the trajectory he plans to take.
    Rethinking, and tinkering with this most basic motivational factor will have consequences throughout the entire economic edifice that it supports.
    Work in Cuba has always been more a form of social participation than a means to a salary. This is not only because the wages are negligible, but as codified by Ernesto "Che" Guevara in his theory of the "New Man", labour is performed as a moral duty, not sold for material benefit.
    Changing that formula, as Raul is proposing, with a focus on the individual, as opposed to the communal, material benefit from labour, will have a dramatic social impact.
    Chinese model

    China has witnessed an economic boom while
    maintaining socialist rhetoric [GALLO/GETTY]

    As China has shown, it is a path fraught with risks, as it can create the very society of "haves" and "have nots" that the revolution fought so hard to erase.
    The transformation will undoubtedly be slow and cautious, but it has already begun.
    The lifting of restrictions on access to tourist hotels and imported goods has now in effect legalised the desire to consume.
    But it remains to be seen how Cubans will be empowered to satisfy those desires, without upsetting the egalitarian character of the revolution.
    There has been a long-standing rumour that Raul Castro is an admirer of the Chinese model.
    Following the dramatic recent dismissal of several key officials, widely considered the next generation of leadership, and their replacement with veterans of the armed struggle, it is clear that any economic changes will happen within the context of strict political control.

    Cuba is open for business, as was surely the message of Raul's recent foreign trips.
    US telecommunications companies will undoubtedly be welcomed to the island, but this is likely to be the only one of Washington's demands that will be met.
    Change in Cuba will be the product of internal, not external pressure.
    And, like China and Venezuela, the party will remain firmly in control.
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