Tourism Analysis: The Importance of Context

[Don1]

When one attempts to analyse any issue, in this case Jamaican tourism, it's easy to cite newspaper reports... which usually involve a restatement of some speech by a government official.

Such an official (even if well meaning or competent) clearly has a vested interest in presenting the most rosy picture possible of his portfolio. He will cherry pick stats that fit that agenda.

So it's up to a discerning individual to pick reality from fluff.... that's where independent research comes in if one is so inclined.
Jamaican journalists are not particularly noted for thorough research so their output is not always reliable... Sikko excepted!

The Caribbean Tourism Organization tracks regional performance in the industry. Their 2008 data shows that Jamaica's main regional competitors had arrivals ranging from a +30% increase (Curacao) to -10.8% Anguilla... this excludes Guyana which does not take tourism seriously.

Jamaica's 2008 return was +3.9% ..... not bad... but not particularly great..... Jamaica's output was about in the middle of the pack statistically. So more context is required to assess Jamaica.

To drill down deeper one has to look at room occupancy and room additions in 2008. If Jamaica added morethan 3.9% to its room capacity in 2008... then % occupancy would be down.... a bad scenario.

Reliable figures are not easy to come by but Jamaica's 2008 room additions are probably at or above 4% (ie about 1000-1200 rooms)... if this is true... our 2008 performance efficiency would be flat or declining... and a cause for concern.... especially since the hotel building boom has abated.

It almost certainly means that the bulk of any increased 2008 arrivals is largely due to ROOM GROWTH and not ministerial or agency performance. Since our rivals are generally not adding rooms at Jamaica's pace... even our modest regional performance may be too flattering to Jamaica.

While Bartlett is doing an OK job... he owes the public not just cherry picked and rosy numbers that lead some down the garden path... but a realistic assessment of industry performance.

[Assasin]

How can you attribute the growth mainly to room growth? Are you implying that if you build more room people must come?

there are so many other factors that take place like the growth in cruise industry, Airline seats in the right markets, event promotion and marketing directly and indirectly. Just the mere factor that there is a growth is very good MOST tourism markets are seeing downturn, whether growth in rooms or not. This must call for some form of leadership and not bumbling.

Last year Jamaica increase visitors coming from Canada a good amount, Jamaica got preferred Chinese status as a visitors destination. You took the same stats from the Caribbean Tourism Organization to make your decision so what is wrong with that?

[Assasin]

Special: Crisis in tourism

From BBC
In recent years, the once vibrant Caribbean tourism industry has been plagued with a number of challenges, including natural disasters and competition from new destinations.
But this year, it was the weakening global economy that has dealt the hardest blow to the industry.
Across the region, hundreds of tourism jobs have been lost to the financial crisis.
Luxury resorts, reporting a drop in visitor arrivals, were forced to lay off staff and in some countries, tourism development projects were halted because of a lack of funding.
And there are no immediate signs that things will change.
Governor of the Barbados Central Bank, Marion Williams, warned that a prolonged recession could result in a 20 percent drop in tourism revenue.
But the executive vice president of the Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA), Sue Springer, said that would be disastrous.
"If we are talking 20 percent we can all pack up and go home, because that would be the end of the tourism industry in Barbados and it will have a catastrophic effect," Ms Springer said.
Julia Blenman, who manages a small hotel, foresees tough times ahead.
"We're a small property, competing among a lot of people here in Barbados, larger hotels who may lower their rates just to get people to come in.
"So that's going to be hard for us," she told BBC Caribbean.
Gloomy outlook
President of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourism Association (JHTA), Wayne Cummings, says the outlook for the season remains gloomy and about 30 percent off target.
"We've been working very closely with the government to try and put in place some kind of stimulus package that is going to help to shore up cash.
"Cash is going to be the biggest challenge for hotels than a lot of the other sectors right now because we need to keep our doors open," Mr Cummings said.
This negative outlook is in stark contrast to the optimism of Jamaica's Tourism Minister Ed Bartlett.
He believes an advertising campaign in North America will encourage those who do travel, to come to Jamaica.
But owners of smaller properties are not convinced.
Vanna Taylor, who heads the Association of Villas and Apartments, said forward bookings have been slow.
She says prospective guests are seeking lower prices, and that is hurting business.
"Everybody is competing for the same guests, so the price is getting lower and lower, but if it continues down that line we're not going to be able to pay our bills," Ms Taylor said.
Hoteliers fear that some properties will be forced to close their doors or scale back operations in the New Year, as the crisis drags on.
Air Passenger Duty
In addition to lower visitor arrivals, reduced spending and job losses, the industry was dealt another blow in November.
The British government announced plans to introduce a new tax, the Air Passenger Duty, as part of a drive to reduce carbon emissions.
Under the new law, passengers flying within 2,000 miles of London will have to pay incremental taxes on their ticket fare.
The new tax take effect from November 2009.
St Lucia's Tourism Minister Allen Chastanet described the tax as a slap in the face for the Caribbean, and he warned that it would spell further problems for the industry.
Dominican hotelier Judith Pestaina agrees and she says regional governments should lobby against the levy.
"Here it is we have had our bananas, rum, sugar - all these major commodities - affected by WTO rulings, now you have an additional tax being imposed on travel.
"This is something I think our ministers should be lobbying aggressively against, so that we can safeguard our tourism," she said.
Cuba's positive outlook
But while the rest of the Caribbean is struggling with its tourism sector, Cuba seems to be gearing up for a strong winter season.
Tourism officials in Havana say they are expecting a record 2.3 million visitors this year.
Officials say their positive outlook for the industry is because the island's main market, Canada has not suffered a major fallout from the financial crisis, like other countries.
Industry analysts point to a number of factors for Cuba's strong performance in the face of global economic uncertainty.
They say many travellers are enticed by the prospect of visiting one of only five remaining communist countries in the world.
Havana is also said to be cheaper than its Caribbean neighbours.
Officials predict that it will be at least two years before the tourism industry gets back on its feet.
But in the short term at least one island is looking to team up with Cuba, to boost its industry.
Jamaica will sign an agreement with Havana in the coming weeks, for joint destination marketing and airlift arrangements between the islands.

[Don1]

How can you attribute the growth mainly to room growth? Are you implying that if you build more room people must come?

Hoteliers build rooms and must spend dollars to market them. JTB markets the destination. The more rooms hoteliers build.. the more they have to spend to fill them... ask any hotelier. Jamaica has been building an impressive number of rooms.

No one is saying that JTB doesn't have an impact.... but JTB is one element in the marketing mix.

there are so many other factors that take place like the growth in cruise industry, Airline seats in the right markets, event promotion and marketing directly and indirectly. Just the mere factor that there is a growth is very good MOST tourism markets are seeing downturn, whether growth in rooms or not. This must call for some form of leadership and not bumbling.

Of course growth is good. The most impressive growth in Jamaica's tourism recently is in room stock, not particularly in arrivals... most people know this.

Last year Jamaica increase visitors coming from Canada a good amount, Jamaica got preferred Chinese status as a visitors destination. You took the same stats from the Caribbean Tourism Organization to make your decision so what is wrong with that?

Since 2005 the Chinese, with the visit of their Vice President agreed to give Jamaica preferred status and also to build the Convention Center... this Govt. is wisely following up on that.. they did not originate it (not that it matters).

You don't seem to have much of a point here regarding my use of CTO stats... at least no point I can discern.

Bartlett is doing a creditable job of at least sustaining the recent gains in tourism.... but not anything to get too worked up about... unless one only reads his press releases.

[Don1]

Special: Crisis in tourism

From BBC
In recent years, the once vibrant Caribbean tourism industry has been plagued with a number of challenges, including natural disasters and competition from new destinations.
But this year, it was the weakening global economy that has dealt the hardest blow to the industry.
Across the region, hundreds of tourism jobs have been lost to the financial crisis.
Luxury resorts, reporting a drop in visitor arrivals, were forced to lay off staff and in some countries, tourism development projects were halted because of a lack of funding.
And there are no immediate signs that things will change.
Governor of the Barbados Central Bank, Marion Williams, warned that a prolonged recession could result in a 20 percent drop in tourism revenue.
But the executive vice president of the Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA), Sue Springer, said that would be disastrous.
"If we are talking 20 percent we can all pack up and go home, because that would be the end of the tourism industry in Barbados and it will have a catastrophic effect," Ms Springer said.
Julia Blenman, who manages a small hotel, foresees tough times ahead.
"We're a small property, competing among a lot of people here in Barbados, larger hotels who may lower their rates just to get people to come in.
"So that's going to be hard for us," she told BBC Caribbean.
Gloomy outlook
President of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourism Association (JHTA), Wayne Cummings, says the outlook for the season remains gloomy and about 30 percent off target.
"We've been working very closely with the government to try and put in place some kind of stimulus package that is going to help to shore up cash.
"Cash is going to be the biggest challenge for hotels than a lot of the other sectors right now because we need to keep our doors open," Mr Cummings said.
This negative outlook is in stark contrast to the optimism of Jamaica's Tourism Minister Ed Bartlett.
He believes an advertising campaign in North America will encourage those who do travel, to come to Jamaica.
But owners of smaller properties are not convinced.
Vanna Taylor, who heads the Association of Villas and Apartments, said forward bookings have been slow.
She says prospective guests are seeking lower prices, and that is hurting business.
"Everybody is competing for the same guests, so the price is getting lower and lower, but if it continues down that line we're not going to be able to pay our bills," Ms Taylor said.
Hoteliers fear that some properties will be forced to close their doors or scale back operations in the New Year, as the crisis drags on.
Air Passenger Duty
In addition to lower visitor arrivals, reduced spending and job losses, the industry was dealt another blow in November.
The British government announced plans to introduce a new tax, the Air Passenger Duty, as part of a drive to reduce carbon emissions.
Under the new law, passengers flying within 2,000 miles of London will have to pay incremental taxes on their ticket fare.
The new tax take effect from November 2009.
St Lucia's Tourism Minister Allen Chastanet described the tax as a slap in the face for the Caribbean, and he warned that it would spell further problems for the industry.
Dominican hotelier Judith Pestaina agrees and she says regional governments should lobby against the levy.
"Here it is we have had our bananas, rum, sugar - all these major commodities - affected by WTO rulings, now you have an additional tax being imposed on travel.
"This is something I think our ministers should be lobbying aggressively against, so that we can safeguard our tourism," she said.
Cuba's positive outlook
But while the rest of the Caribbean is struggling with its tourism sector, Cuba seems to be gearing up for a strong winter season.
Tourism officials in Havana say they are expecting a record 2.3 million visitors this year.
Officials say their positive outlook for the industry is because the island's main market, Canada has not suffered a major fallout from the financial crisis, like other countries.
Industry analysts point to a number of factors for Cuba's strong performance in the face of global economic uncertainty.
They say many travellers are enticed by the prospect of visiting one of only five remaining communist countries in the world.
Havana is also said to be cheaper than its Caribbean neighbours.
Officials predict that it will be at least two years before the tourism industry gets back on its feet.
But in the short term at least one island is looking to team up with Cuba, to boost its industry.
Jamaica will sign an agreement with Havana in the coming weeks, for joint destination marketing and airlift arrangements between the islands.

hooray!!

[Assasin]

Who is worked up? So it takes more than just the hotel rooms for the gain?

glad you agree on that. The fact is why everybody is in crisis it takes some leadership to see growth AND THAT IS THE FACT.

[Don1]

Who is worked up? So it takes more than just the hotel rooms for the gain?

glad you agree on that. The fact is why everybody is in crisis it takes some leadership to see growth AND THAT IS THE FACT.

Yea!! Bartlett the leader!!

JTB is doing what JTB historically does... spend money to market Jamaica.. how innovative!

[Muadib]

"Two key officials of the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) in New York resigned after reports surfaced about professional and financial misconduct. Noel Mignott, deputy director of tourism, and Yvonne Sawyers, accountant/administrator, resigned prior to an emergency meeting of the JTB..."

Heh, heh.. this comedian is on form..

[Don1]

"Two key officials of the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) in New York resigned after reports surfaced about professional and financial misconduct. Noel Mignott, deputy director of tourism, and Yvonne Sawyers, accountant/administrator, resigned prior to an emergency meeting of the JTB..."

Heh, heh.. this comedian is on form..

Yeah!! Maudib the JFLAG comedian is really on form and back in town!

Errrr... what year were those resignations again??

Also since you're so late on this discussion (too busy working on policy for the government no doubt) what relevance do these dated personnel changes have to this thread?

Don't bother to answer... it has zero relevance....

Get back to work.... the country needs you.

[Muadib]

Bringing some facts to the 'historical' debate..

Some on here show a penchant for forgetting (don't blame them)

LOL !

[Don1]

Bringing some facts to the 'historical' debate..

Some on here show a penchant for forgetting (don't blame them)

LOL !

You have yet to explain the relevance of those misbegotten bureaucrats to this debate.

That's understandable... there is no relevance.

[Muadib]

Debate ??

Speaking of irrelevant... this topic is a good candidate..

[Don1]

Debate ??

Speaking of irrelevant... this topic is a good candidate..

Curious that you find it irrelevant since you have the most responses.

Don't you have government work to do? You should not be shirking on the taxpayer's time... but perhaps Jamaica is better off when you shirk.

[Muadib]

My apologies.. humour is never irrelevant..

Your saving grace..

LOL !

[Don1]

My apologies.. humour is never irrelevant..

Your saving grace..

LOL !

Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!! At last, recognition for my talent.... it really means a lot.