Gas is $1.699 in my neighbor'ood

[HL]

steady as she goes....

[Tilla]

Look like you ketch up wid mi HL. Tonight I saw it at $162, this morning on my way to work, it was $167. Hope it goes down some more. Still cannot believe it that it was at $1.19 back in December.

[Willi]

Ironic

Gas prices have been falling here slightly) for the last few weeks.

[HL]

Oh Tilla...mean to ax you...do you still go to the gym?

[Gamma]

they WILL surge again...and soon!

[HL]

hookay missa nostradamus..we eer yu

[Gamma]

it's not my will but thine be done......

By Ray Grigg, Courier-IslanderFebruary 27, 2009


function resizeImage() { var imgBox = document.getElementById('imageBox'); var photo = document.getElementById('storyphoto'); if (imgBox != null & photo != null) { if(photo.width >= 460) { imgBox.className = 'imagesize460'; } else { if(photo.width >= 300) { imgBox.className = 'imagesize310'; } else { imgBox.className = 'imageboxpadding'; } imgBox.style.width = photo.width + 'px'; } } } function getStoryFontSize() { var storyfontsize = getCookie('storyfontsize'); // use cookied value, if present if (storyfontsize != null) { setClass('story_content',storyfontsize); } else // default it to para14 if no cookie { setClass('story_content','para14'); } } function getCookie( check_name ) { // split this cookie up into name/value pairs var a_all_cookies = document.cookie.split( ';' ); var a_temp_cookie = ''; var cookie_name = ''; var cookie_value = ''; var b_cookie_found = false; // set boolean t/f default f for ( i = 0; i < a_all_cookies.length; i++ ) { // split apart each name=value pair a_temp_cookie = a_all_cookies[i].split( '=' ); // and trim left/right whitespace while we're at it cookie_name = a_temp_cookie[0].replace(/^\s+|\s+$/g, ''); // if the extracted name matches passed check_name if ( cookie_name == check_name ) { b_cookie_found = true; // we need to handle case where cookie has no value but exists (no = sign, that is): if ( a_temp_cookie.length > 1 ) { cookie_value = unescape( a_temp_cookie[1].replace(/^\s+|\s+$/g, '') ); } // note that in cases where cookie is initialized but no value, null is returned return cookie_value; break; } a_temp_cookie = null; cookie_name = ''; } if ( !b_cookie_found ) { return null; } } Even before the price of oil was hitting a record high of $147 per barrel in the summer of 2008, truckers, farmers and fishers from Europe to South America and Asia were protesting the exorbitant cost of this essential commodity. Now that it is hovering below $40 per barrel, producers from the Middle East to North Africa and South America -- and Alberta, too -- are complaining about its low price. Between these protesters and complainers is the ordinary consumer who is wondering what is happening and what might happen next in the oil story.
Since the widespread use of oil began at the end of the 19th century, we have used about half of the 2.3 trillion barrels that are believed to exist. As an indication of our present rate of consumption, we have used about half of that half in the last 25 years. Our present rate of consumption is about 87 million barrels per day, or about 30 billion barrels per year. The price is regulated by supply and demand. In the early months of 2008, when a very active global economy was increasing demand, oil producers could barely supply enough so threatened shortages were making oil more expensive.
Then came the financial crash. The global economy slowed, oil consumption fell, the pressure on supply dropped, and the price came down. This is the known part of the oil story. But the subsequent chapters are also fairly clear.
In the next chapter, as the global economy recovers and the demand for oil increases, supplies will once again come under pressure and the price will rise. This rising price will increase the cost of goods and services. "Given that crude oil fuels 36.4% of the world's energy consumption, the seriousness of shortages cannot be underplayed," writes William Marsden in The Vancouver Sun (Jan. 17/09). "Our reliance on oil is almost total. It fuels 100% of air and sea transport and most of our land transport." It also supplies us with plastics, fertilizers, medicines, building materials, clothes, tires and innumerable other products of the petro-chemical industry. The rising price of oil will eventually slow the global economy, demand for oil will fall and, in the latter part of this chapter, the price will come down again.
These extreme price fluxuations that are interspersed with economic recessions are the early consequences of a diminishing supply of oil trying to service an oil-based economy that is running out of oil. And these erratic prices mark the beginning of the end of the so-called Age of Oil.
Oil will still be available -- at least, the balance of the 1.2 trillion barrels that remains in the ground. But this oil will be progressively more difficult to extract, will be of lesser quality and may be difficult to remove in sufficient quantities -- note Alberta tar sands -- to meet our modern demands of 30 billion barrels per year. Indeed, if the estimates of the remaining oil deposits are correct -- and they likely are -- our total reserves of oil at present consumption rates will last another 39 years.
But supply problems will begin long before we have exhausted the resource. When demand starts to exceed supply, we will reach a place called "peak oil". One expert estimates that this shortage of supply will occur in 2011. Another thinks 2012. Most others think it will occur within 10 years. Optimists think 15 years.
At peak oil anything can happen. Certainly, the price of oil will go up and stay up -- recessions or no recessions. But a so-called "psychological avalanche" of unpredictable consequences may also be unleashed (New Scientist, Jun. 28/08). Exporting countries with diminishing reserves may decide to keep their remaining oil for domestic use.
Countries that don't have oil may be tempted to use military persuasion to leverage it from countries that do have it. Oil-rich countries will be subjected to enormous pressures from those that are oil-starved -- Saudi Arabia is already under such pressure. Countries desperate for oil will be scrambling for alternative energies and substitutes, causing varying degrees of economic and political disorder -- note the US in Iraq . Environmental damage will be rationalized as a necessary cost -- most run-of-river projects are examples.
Unfortunately, the oil story is not science fiction. The pinnacle of oil discovery was in the 1960s. The world began using more oil than it was finding in 1981. America's oil production peaked in the 1970s.
Canada's in 1995. Mexico's in 1997. The North Sea in 2000. And Venezuela's is peaking now. All the major oil fields in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have either peaked in production or are in decline. Just 20 years ago, 15 oilfields were able to supply 1 million barrels a day; now there are only 4 (Ibid.). Chris Skrebowski of the Energy Institute of Britain and a consulting editor of Petroleum Review, notes that "28 significant producers are in decline", representing 35% of the world's production -- when that number reaches 51%, we are in peak oil (The Vancouver Sun).
Only the greater Persian Gulf is maintaining its production of oil.
Supplies from Angola, Nigeria, Iraq and Iran are unpredictable. As much as 25% of existing reserves may be deliberately overestimated to allow excess pumping.
New finds are being made but they are usually small, in ultra-deep water or difficult to extract.
But even a big find, such as the estimated 15 to 30 billion barrels off the coast of Brazil, will supply only one year of global consumption.
Future chapters of the oil story will likely unfold as a tense blend of adversity and ingenuity mixed with complex themes of diplomacy, folly, force, cunning, regret and resourcefulness.
They will form an economic, political, psychological and environmental thriller with unanticipated twists of plot and consequence. And, unless we start preparing now, we and our children will be living this uncertain story.
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Service
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[Tilla]

I stopped after I started this new job recently that has beeb keeping me a bit busier than before. I felt that I should not be paying if I am not going, so I have temporarily cancelled my membership. Luckily my gym allows a month by month contract where you can cancel at anytime. You are only needed to give them 30 days notice. You also pay up front for your first and last months.

I think I am going to start it again when it gets warm and by then I would have fully settled in this new job.

A good workout is a good thing to do and can make you feel so much better after you have finished.