Election 08 Predictions

[Islandman]

OK, unless Bush cancels the elections and declares a state of emergency, there is not much else that is going to change in peoples minds in this election. The big battle left is in turnout so I will make my final predictions.

Obama will struggle in the area we loosly call the Old South. McCain will win GA, SC, comfortably and hang on in NC and probably even FL (which is not all Old South). The exception will be Virginia, he will flip that.

OH will also go McCain, and while Obama will start out strongly in PA, as the votes from the western side come in McCain will close strongly.....but I don't think it will be enough. Obama will hold on by 3-5 points and take it.

Virgina alone is not enough to secure an Obama win however, but he also flips Iowa and as the night goes on he also wins Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Contrary to reports McCain will win Arizona easily.

So bottom line, with the pickups in VA,IA,CO, NV and NM, Obama gains 39 electoral votes more than Kerry and gets to 292 to become the next president. The cable news channels call it at about 10-11 after polls close on the west coast and Yuttie and and Hortical can exhale.

The reason I don't see how McCain will be able to win this is that even if he finds some way to win PA then Obama still has 271. I just can't see him winning Virginia anymore.

If Obama has a really good night he will also win FL and NC which gets him to over 330. An easy win but not a landslide. I expect to see Obama get somewhere between 290 and 320 in the end.

[Karl]

Where do you live?
...and what is your take on your state?

[Islandman]

Central FL.

I am concerned about these long lines throughout the early voting period. Unless things are much different tomorrow I suspect many of the young voters who haven't voted yet, simply will not vote.

I found it interesting that while the Dems lead in voters going to the polls, the Republicans lead in absentee ballots. I wonder if they knew that was going to happen and encouraged thier mostly older voters to mail it in?

PA doesn't have early voting, so that will be interesting to watch. If the lines in the urban areas are causing 6-8 hour wait times, but in the rural areas everything is going well.....

Mosiah touched on this earlier but I'll say it anyway. The US really needs to stop telling people about democracy until they get thier house in order. Does the Carter Center do a report on these elections?

[Lazie]

Central FL.

I am concerned about these long lines throughout the early voting period. Unless things are much different tomorrow I suspect many of the young voters who haven't voted yet, simply will not vote.

I found it interesting that while the Dems lead in voters going to the polls, the Republicans lead in absentee ballots. I wonder if they knew that was going to happen and encouraged thier mostly older voters to mail it in?

PA doesn't have early voting, so that will be interesting to watch. If the lines in the urban areas are causing 6-8 hour wait times, but in the rural areas everything is going well.....

Mosiah touched on this earlier but I'll say it anyway. The US really needs to stop telling people about democracy until they get thier house in order. Does the Carter Center do a report on these elections?

During early voting only some of the stations are open, on election much more stations would be open ..... Right?

[Islandman]

Yes, that is what some people are saying should happen. Is it true though? I hope so.

Even so, 4-6 hour lines every day for more than a week including 2 weekends should not be happening.

[Karl]

Central FL.

I am concerned about these long lines throughout the early voting period. Unless things are much different tomorrow I suspect many of the young voters who haven't voted yet, simply will not vote.

I found it interesting that while the Dems lead in voters going to the polls, the Republicans lead in absentee ballots. I wonder if they knew that was going to happen and encouraged thier mostly older voters to mail it in?

PA doesn't have early voting, so that will be interesting to watch. If the lines in the urban areas are causing 6-8 hour wait times, but in the rural areas everything is going well.....

Mosiah touched on this earlier but I'll say it anyway. The US really needs to stop telling people about democracy until they get thier house in order. Does the Carter Center do a report on these elections?

OK, boss!
I am down the road - Port St Lucie.
Many of the older voters mail it in. Most of them in Florida, I think vote Republican.

Nationawide: ...anyway, like JA the voters are split just about evenly along party lines. In JA, PNP & JLP...here Republican and Democrat. I think, that it is in JA it is the swing voters who ultimately decide the winnah!

We have been hearing that in this election two new groups are going to cause change - new voters & the young voters. It is claimed Obama and the democrats have the advantage here - having recruited and energized more of these groups.

I am thinking that optimistic forecast of having recruited more new voters and more young voters may not be based on facts...as any effort at recuiting must have had the recruiters visiting without knowing where the new voters and or young voters were 'leaning' and their thinking. It may well be that the getting out of persons in those two categories would have both Republicans and Democrats being brought into the 'likely voters' group. I just do not see why a new or young would be voter who may be thinking of voting Republican would not take advantage of the opportunity to be registered and 'taken' (carpool, walking in a group, whatever...) to the polling station.

...that brings me back to the swing voters - and the feeling they may have of 'time for a change'! That is where I think Obama has the advantage.