Islandman

[Yuttie]

curious as to what you think Obama's chences are...encountered some interesting statistics lately...yo realize that Obama leading McCain by about 70 electorial votes at "PRESENT"? and that doesn't include any targeted southern states(Va, Fl, NC, LA, GA, MI)....

still feel like Montana, Nevada, Kansas and even way farfetched as it sounds WV will be in play... hehe...wait till di press start enquire about him receiveing disability from the navy..

btw..welcome to the new Era of 527...http://therealmccain.com/...the obama counteraction is garbage

[Exile]

Good site Islandman. Thanks. I wish we had people like this in Ja who would do the due dilligence on our politics.

[Karl]

curious as to what you think Obama's chences are...encountered some interesting statistics lately...yo realize that Obama leading McCain by about 70 electorial votes at "PRESENT"? and that doesn't include any targeted southern states(Va, Fl, NC, LA, GA, MI)....

still feel like Montana, Nevada, Kansas and even way farfetched as it sounds WV will be in play... hehe...wait till di press start enquire about him receiveing disability from the navy..

btw..welcome to the new Era of 527...http://therealmccain.com/...the obama counteraction is garbage

Where did you get the info that Obama is leading in the Electoral College count?

[Yuttie]

welcome to 2008

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6...446/607/535370

[Hortical]

Its based on opinion polls.

[Karl]

welcome to 2008

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6...446/607/535370

Thanks!

[Islandman]

I was glad to see him get a little bounce after Hillary exited the race. Still far too close for comfort though, one news event can erase that lead easily.

I tend to follow the polls at realclearpolitics.com because of the range of pollsters they feature. Based on thier polls, Obama is slightly ahead in the electoral votes, but one major state going blue to red would swing it back to McCain.

So all in all, Obama has a good chance but I think that since Iraq is not looking like the big winner for the Dems it was a year ago, the economy will probably be the decider.

[Yuttie]

McCain "the troops coming home is not important" comment plus is army thesis will,...don't buy into the media ppl want the troops home but they don't want to lose spin, they just don't trust the army in Obama's hand, a military VP would sedate that unrest...

I have a better chance of getting elected than McCain, i think Obama will have a harder time to get re-elected than be elected...

the Dems will also remind the nation how Afghan and Pakistan is being neglected though they pose the greatest threat, btw things really bad over Afghanistan, talk to one a breds over deh two days ago, dem man se dem no stop fiya rockets over deh, down to the special forces a close caskets

[Islandman]

What I mean about Iraq is that if things continue to stabilise and the casualities continue to trend down as they have for the last few months, they will gradually start pulling back the troops anyway, so the "bring the troops home" argument will have less impact than before. Of couse if the Iraqi troops can't handle it and the violence surges again as the troops get pulled, then all bets are off.

I think McCain has a decent shot, just about the only Republican who would have a chance this time. If he is still in the running the way things are now, i can't see him getting blown out even if he loses. There are just too many liberal haters in the US who see a Dem president combined with a Dem congress and senate as the end of the world as we know it. They will vote McCain even though they can't stand him.

As for those "womens-lib" Hillary voters going for McCain, it will be interesting to see if them still feel that way when them realise that him planning to appoint the supreme court judges necessary to overturn "Roe vs Wade" which is probably issue #1 for the womens movement. That is the issue that i think will bring them out to vote Obama.

Looking forward to the debates/townhall meetings.

[Gamma]

yuh nervous eeh?

[Islandman]

I prefer to say that I am cautious.

I suspect many are underestimating McCain though, well not really him but the discomfort so many Americans have with northern, liberal politicians. Most times they lose badly in presidential elections in favor of people like Nixon and Bush.

It is a testament to Obamas appeal that he is doing so well with such a liberal record. I spent some time watching some Bobby Kennedy videos on youtube recently and I see why Obama reminds the baby boomers of him.

[Gamma]

no sah...that past cautious........but i think i can understand one not wanting to be too hopeful and having your hopes dashed.....but don't forget...the man's book is called "the audacity of hope"

[Yuttie]

spoke with a hardcore Republican earlier, man said he often goes to private meetings with his peers and various Republican politician and convince dem crazy di way dem attempt fi sell McCain..he said many (of his)Republicans (friends) are planning to vote Barack they they publicly voice support for McCain..

McCain 0 rating from NAPAL will do damage, the McCain campaigne is bankrupt of ideas and appeal..

though the whole Liberal threat might be real but keep in mind many northeners have migrated in great numbers down south since the turn of the millenium..also what use to be liberal agenda as now become mainstream agenda...environment, healthcare, abortion...the whole liberal equals socialism aka bigger government aka central government is a weak talking point, The Republicans have overrided too much civil liberties to sell that arguement....

don't worry bout the polls, obama lead is bigger than what the gallup suggest..white men are making the polls look closer than it actual is, as soon as he pick a general(as it appears now) the number will open up

[Yuttie]

Bush backer pens pro-Obama book

Ben Smith Mon Jun 16, 5:10 AM ET

The conservative Evangelical biographer of George W. Bush and Tom DeLay has moved on to a new subject: Barack Obama. And his new book, due out this summer, may lend credibility to Senator Obama's bid to win Evangelical Christian voters away from the Republican Party.
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The forthcoming volume from Stephen Mansfield, whose sympathetic "The Faith of George W. Bush" spent 15 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list in 2004, is titled "The Faith of Barack Obama." Its tone ranges from gently critical to gushing, and the author defends Obama-and even his controversial former minister, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright-from conservative critics, and portrays him as a compelling figure for Christian voters.
"Young Evangelicals are saying, 'Look, I'm pro-life but I'm looking at a guy who's first of all black-and they love that; two, who's a Christian; and three who believes faith should bear on public policy," Mansfield, who described himself as a conservative Republican, said in a telephone interview. "They disagree with him on abortion, but they agree with him on poverty, on the war."
His book, provided exclusively to Politico by the publisher, focuses more on Obama's religious journey than his electoral prospects.
"For Obama, faith is not simply political garb, something a focus group told him he ought to try. Instead, religion to him is transforming, lifelong, and real," Mansfield writes, going on to compare Obama favorably to Christian Democratic presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, who he says erected a "wall of separation" between their religion and their governance.
By contrast, "Obama's faith infuses his public policy, so that his faith is not just limited to the personal realms of his life, it also informs his leadership," Mansfield writes.
The book is published by Thomas Nelson, the world's largest Christian publisher. It's due out August 5. "The Faith of Barack Obama" is expected to retail in Christian outlets and the Wal-Mart chain of stores, as well as secular bookstores. A motivational speaker and former pastor, Mansfield is the author of several books on faith as well as the co-author of former House Republican powerhouse Tom DeLay's 2007 book "No Retreat, No Surrender," a defense of his tarnished legacy sprinkled with fierce attacks on his opponents and on liberal causes.
Mansfield writes that Obama "is unapologetically Christian and unapologetically liberal." But he writes that in substance and in style, Obama holds an appeal to Evangelicals that Senator John McCain may lack.
He contrasted Obama's relative "fluency" with the language of religion-his campaign has outlined a pitch to the "Joshua Generation," a common term in Christian circles for younger Evangelicals-with the approach of his Republican rival.
"The McCain campaign is pretty clumsy when it comes to religion," he said, noting McCain's courtship, then renunciation, of two prominent Evangelical pastors, John Hagee and Rod Parsley.
In his Fathers Day speech at a Chicago church Sunday, Obama again spoke explicitly of his personal Christianity: "We do what we can to build our house upon the sturdiest rock, and for me that means building that house on the foundation of Jesus Christ."
Mansfield's book validates Obama's attempt-which began in earnest in his 2004 speech to the Democratic National Convention-to provide a compelling public face to the nascent "Religious Left." In that speech, he proclaimed that "we worship an awesome God in the blue states," and Mansfield tracks his continuing attempts to contest the Republican hold on white Evangelical voters.
One notable moment came in 2006 when Obama appeared at Reverend Rick Warren's megachurch beside GOP Senator Sam Brownback.
"Welcome to my house," Brownback told Obama on stage.
"This is my house too," Obama responded. "This is God's house."
Obama, Mansfield writes, "made it clear to all that he [will] not be moved from his rightful place in the Christian fold."
Obama's Christianity, however, has been under attack on two fronts this campaign season. The first is from a false, but widely held, belief that he is a Muslim. Mansfield dismisses that charge, then dwells at length on Obama's controversial church, Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ.
Mansfield said in the interview that he entered Trinity having heard "that Obama's church was a cult, something un-Christian, that Reverend Wright was a nut," but emerged with the view that it is "a pretty solid Christian church."
His warm description of the church reflects that view.
Though Mansfield writes of some jarringly radical features of the black liberation theology from which Trinity is descended, he concludes that what it offers is the "'born-again, new birth, blood-washed, Spirit-empowered Chrstianity' that Evangelicals know."
"Few sermons this good will be preached anywhere in America on this Sunday morning," he says of the sermon he heard from Trinity's current pastor, Rev. Otis Moss.
Mansfield's book is addressed to Evangelical readers, and it raises some questions about Obama's own faith, including his willingness to see contradictions in the bible, his belief that religions other than Protestant Christianity provide other "paths" to a "higher power," and his doubts about the afterlife.
There are also passages in Mansfield's book that may give Obama's secular supporters pause. In particular, a theme from his book on Bush—the suggestion that the president's rise was itself an act of God-reappears in his coverage of Obama. He approvingly quotes Obama's old rival Rep. Bobby Rush saying that Obama's Senate win was "divinely ordained."
"Increasingly, words such as called, chosen, and anointed are being used of Obama," he writes.
Despite Mansfield's praise of the candidate, however, and his view that Obama may win over large numbers of younger Evangelical voters, the author also demonstrates the limits to the Democrats' appeal.
Mansfield said he will vote against Obama in November for a single reason: "Because I'm pro-life."

[Islandman]

You are probably right about some of the liberal agenda becoming more mainstream. The fact that someone like McCain could even get the Republican nomination at all suggests that the US has moved to the left somewhat. Even gay marriage looks like it will eventually become mainstream . Already most people support legal unions for same-sex couples.

A question for you though, given that Obama stands a good chance of winning, doesn't that in itself say a lot about the improvement in race relations in the US? I generally argue that it is not nearly as bad as most blacks insist it is, but I definately didn't think it had got to the point where a black president was a real possibility. And certainly not one that hasn't spent decades in Washington and is known to the public as a "safe" choice like say a Colin Powell.