Railway Revival: On the wrong track?

[Muadib]

and you are privy to the latest projections ?

[Muadib]

what are the freight requirement projections over the next 10 years ?

[Karl]

Again, this is not a problem that turns on management or politics... it's a question of economic viability and economic necessity.... it fails both tests in my view.

If you want to spend US$300m - spend it directly on education and slum upgrading/social and community development for poor people- free them from squalor- watch crime decline and our economic possibilities grow-- much better ROI.

Let us agree - I said it! You have said it! - this is not viable looked at from an economic standpoint.

Your other point is spend the money elsewhere! My point spend on bring the railway into being...and solve all other problems.

You say that working on all fronts cannot be done! I say it must be done!

You say it is not about 'the management' and managing! I say it is!

[Mosiah]

You say that working on all fronts cannot be done! I say it must be done!

Utopia was never that..utopistic.

[Karl]

Utopia was never that..utopistic.

Perhaps it comes down to putting the right people in the right places without regard for 'whatever P' each belongs?

Convinced we have more than enough competent persons!

[Don1]

and you are privy to the latest projections ?

I don't need projections for that.... the highway is not even half way finished yet and won't be for maybe a decade or more. It's uncertain even how it will be financed at this point.

What's there to project?

[Don1]

Vernamfield to Pt Esquivel to Pt Bustamante to MoBay!

That route was not mentioned in the news reports nor was there any mention of rail being revived to support impending logistics investments... just service for local transport needs.
If it is in support of transshipment/manufacturing/logistics plants.... that's a totally different economic proposition and the minister needs to inform the public properly.

This IS on Chinese dime, but they will pretty it up and call it a loan which will be forgotten.

You apparently have insider info. Are you a Silicon Valley economist as well?

Korea "owns" Panama, and theortically Kingston is better anyway.

Hutchison Whampoa, a Hong Kong firm with ties to the mainland is perhaps the biggest terminal operator in Panama I believe ... they have terminals on both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.
http://www.hutchison-whampoa.com/eng...e_americas.htm

I know for example that the US had security concerns over Chinese influence in Panama because of their port ownership... fear that in a crisis they could block access to the canal and disrupt sea links between their E & W coasts in times of war.

The canal makes Panama a superior logistics location... Kingston supplements and complements Panama.

[Don1]

That information is not a theory, but based on practice. Over reliance on highways for freight and commuter travel is unworkable.

my point is that this theory is most profitably put into practice in countries with a different development profile and size than Jamaica... if you want to adequately challenge my opinion perhaps that's the issue to address... not semantics.

[Muadib]

Port and Logistics activity for one..

[Don1]

US?

Unno a still chirp pan the US when people in Britain and the Continent are matter of factly saying America bruk and that their days of being on top are over. This is not being said in any gloating manner, just as matter of fact statements.

I didn't introduce the US experience in this discussion... Hortical did.... my point is that the US situation is relatively irrelevant to our calculus on this issue.

[Muadib]

You still have not stated the near, medium and long term development profile for Jamaica.. I think that is somewhat important to any analysis of rail requirement.

[Don1]

Let us agree - I said it! You have said it! - this is not viable looked at from an economic standpoint.

Your other point is spend the money elsewhere! My point spend on bring the railway into being...and solve all other problems.

You say that working on all fronts cannot be done! I say it must be done!

You say it is not about 'the management' and managing! I say it is!

It's about money and the lack of it. period
Rail is a romantic boondoggle.... absent integration into some massive logistics investments.... the minister mentioned no such integration ... hence my opinion.

[Don1]

You still have not stated the near, medium and long term development profile for Jamaica.. I think that is somewhat important to any analysis of rail requirement.

Do you support the rail investment? ... if so perhaps you can tell us what these projections are and what specific, concrete, committed investments they are based on.... in other words... no picking numbers out of a hat.

Rail should be built to coordinate with investments that will stimulate demand for it's capacity... GOJ has not announced any such investments.

Let's see you post those projections and the underlying investments.... if you can.

[Muadib]

So what is the basis of the venture ?

It must make certain assumptions.

"The project has to have the capacity to repay the US$354 million it is estimated to cost; the Government of Jamaica will retain ownership of its assets in respect of the JRC, while all the operating costs are to be met by the operators, who will be expected to provide the remaining 15 per cent of the overall funding as equity," Mr. Henry said.

Let me guess, you are lumping Henry in with the Minister of Tourism.. confused/misleading...

[Don1]

So what is the basis of the venture ?

It must make certain assumptions.

"The project has to have the capacity to repay the US$354 million it is estimated to cost; the Government of Jamaica will retain ownership of its assets in respect of the JRC, while all the operating costs are to be met by the operators, who will be expected to provide the remaining 15 per cent of the overall funding as equity," Mr. Henry said.

Let me guess, you are lumping Henry in with the Minister of Tourism.. confused/misleading...

You really think politicians are overly concerned about project viability? Get real.

Politicians think in 5 year (or less) cycles i.e. the next election. If a project can be a feather in their cap and showcased at election time ... it has a good shot at being supported.

politician mout mek fi sey anyting.... suh mi nuh really watch wha dem sey.... look beneath the surface to have a chance at discovering reality... not word sounds.