Railway Revival: On the wrong track?

[Muadib]

You should be able to answer the first question, you have arrived at a conclusion.

Can you tell us ?

[Assasin]

The argument was if Rail service can be profitable in Ja and I say yes it can be but like Air Jamaica we will not concentrate on the profitable routes but will try and please everybody.

[Willi]

That's great theory... especially for advanced economies with access to cheap capital and whose problem is overdevelopment not lack of development as in Jamaica's case.
Rather than US comparisons... show me a country with Jamaica's metrics that's heavily investing in rail i.e. small size, small population, difficult mountainous terrain, limited disposable income and a population wedded to automobile travel who after an initial fascination with rail travel will return to their cars... my bet is you can name no such country.

Why it's not a good investment for Jamaica at this time:

1. We have already committed to build a highway system and are struggling to finance it. We'll further struggle to finance an underutilized and wasteful (but romantic) rail system.
2. We have low value added internal economic activity... in other words most of the stuff being moved around is not being converted to valuable finished goods either for the local or export market.... so why build another expensive distribution system? Bad choice.
3. Given US$300m to spend... there are far superior investments that GOJ should undertake NOW ... eg invest in education and our volcanic inner cities.
4. The overcrowded Jamaican roads you mention are largely within urban core areas... this rail service will have zero impact on that congestion.

Rail has a place... for all the reasons you outlined.... RIGHT NOW it's a very poor investment option with a negative ROI.

Jamaica has access to cheap capital.

Where do you think the money came from to build the Trelawny "white elephant" stadium?

CHINESE money.

You think China building this fi joke? They want Jamaica as the Western Hemispheric hub.

The rail is to move CHINESE goods from port to port (sea and water ports) and to move Jamaican goods for export. The Deputy Prez of China tell unno all this in his 2 day visit in Feb. 2005.

Plans are in the works,,,watch.

[Muadib]

Minister of Transport and Works, Mike Henry has said that the Chinese Government is prepared to provide 85 per cent of the required funding to revive the railway industry, through a loan to the Jamaica Railway Corporation, which would be guaranteed by the Government of Jamaica.

"The project has to have the capacity to repay the US$354 million it is estimated to cost; the Government of Jamaica will retain ownership of its assets in respect of the JRC, while all the operating costs are to be met by the operators, who will be expected to provide the remaining 15 per cent of the overall funding as equity," Mr. Henry said.

[Willi]

US?

Unno a still chirp pan the US when people in Britain and the Continent are matter of factly saying America bruk and that their days of being on top are over. This is not being said in any gloating manner, just as matter of fact statements.

[Karl]

That's great theory... especially for advanced economies with access to cheap capital and whose problem is overdevelopment not lack of development as in Jamaica's case.
Rather than US comparisons... show me a country with Jamaica's metrics that's heavily investing in rail i.e. small size, small population, difficult mountainous terrain, limited disposable income and a population wedded to automobile travel who after an initial fascination with rail travel will return to their cars... my bet is you can name no such country.

Why it's not a good investment for Jamaica at this time:

1. We have already committed to build a highway system and are struggling to finance it. We'll further struggle to finance an underutilized and wasteful (but romantic) rail system.
2. We have low value added internal economic activity... in other words most of the stuff being moved around is not being converted to valuable finished goods either for the local or export market.... so why build another expensive distribution system? Bad choice.
3. Given US$300m to spend... there are far superior investments that GOJ should undertake NOW ... eg invest in education and our volcanic inner cities.
4. The overcrowded Jamaican roads you mention are largely within urban core areas... this rail service will have zero impact on that congestion.

Rail has a place... for all the reasons you outlined.... RIGHT NOW it's a very poor investment option with a negative ROI.

Well put!
The numbers just make no sense if ROI must be on the 'plus side'!

Yet I am for a return of the rail service...

and I may as well say it here - ...and a keeping of Air Jamaica!

[Hortical]

That information is not a theory, but based on practice. Over reliance on highways for freight and commuter travel is unworkable.

[Hortical]

The high cost of fuel is becoming an impediment to the movement of goods the world over, and we are not just talking about bulk goods here. There is no where in the world where rail service has been launched with private funds, rail service requires public investment.

[Willi]

That information is not a theory, but based on practice. Over reliance on highways for freight and commuter travel is unworkable.

Thenk yuh sah!

[Willi]

Well put!
The numbers just make no sense if ROI must be on the 'plus side'!

Yet I am for a return of the rail service...

and I may as well say it here - ...and a keeping of Air Jamaica!

Well yuh was FOR the tRelawny stadium and that makes even less financial sense, so...

[Mosiah]

[/COLOR]
...and the railway being brought back reminds me of Air Jamaica. Always a losing entity...if we are looking only at funds expended and funds returned on investment!

My sentiments exactly. I am worried that Mike is going to move along with this, regardless! I don't mind some rail activity, but I don't think we should be trying to revive the old system, routes and all, of the former system. We should be looking at a people mover between Portmore and Kingston. Indeed, we need to be building up the commercial aspects of Portmore so that people wouldn't have to commute to Kingston they way they have been. But a short and quick rail system between the two cities would be the way to go in my view.

Not entirely against Henry's proposal but just hope he realises we don't have to go full 100 with the old system. Times have changed.

[Assasin]

Rhatid just when mi about fi write you off, you come with a brilliant post.

[Mosiah]

How yuh fi write off di boss? Mi nuh undastan yuh.

[Assasin]

I apologise. Mek mi do it early before you leave

you say you did a go post on the voilence, still a wait with interest.

[Karl]

In Jamaica's present circumstances it's almost always a case of dis or dat.
dis AND dat is usually an unaffordable luxury.

If you can make a case (a short one please) for rail service being VITAL to Jamaica at the current time I would love to see it.

To me it's neither vital or even necessary at the current time.

Aid in relief of social pressures - ego - cheaper delivery of goods! ...and affordable movement of people. ...not saying that in this phase of Jamaica's economic development it is economical as business entity...but am saying it is less painful to (the masses) use taxes - i.e. government subsidies to lower costs on traveling, cost of (moving and thus lowering of and or containing prices of) goods and produce.

As to whether or not we can afford this now...in my mind managing...good management of Jamaica (consider her one large business entity) is all about the managers recognising what is needed, 'producing' the funds - internal sources and external sources - to do all that should be done.

What stops us from 'doing all things'...all at the same time? In my mind, lack of good managers! The PNP while it had its good deeds...had too many areas not being managed properly. It is now for the JLP to prove up to the job of moving on all fronts...or no!

Aside: There is division of labour...and I think we have enough Jamaicans and others...competent Jamaicans to put in place competent managers in all areas...including those who must act as co-ordinators...thus ensuring all 'the parts' work well together to first get us moving towards what we aspire to...then to get us where we want. That means Jamaicans (JLP, PNP and No P) and outside persons with the talent and expertise must be assembled used to do the competent job! Will this JLP be the party that puts those various competent persons together? We'll see!