Railway Revival: On the wrong track?

[Karl]

Well yuh was FOR the tRelawny stadium and that makes even less financial sense, so...

You are so right! ...not everything done for a people can be quantified in the strictest sense...old fashioned way...of dollars and cents.

Would you do away with the parks and museums in the USA and Europe? Do they in that old narrow way pay for themselves?

Where in the world (if any must be very few places) where roadways in strict dollars and cents pay for selves? Would you do away with roadways?

OK! So destroy the National Stadium, the Trelawny Stadium and all our other sports arena...they do not pay for themselves? Right?

[Willi]

You are so right! ...not everything done for a people can be quantified in the strictest sense...old fashioned way...of dollars and cents.

Would you do away with the parks and museums in the USA and Europe? Do they in that old narrow way pay for themselves?

Where in the world (if any must be very few places) where roadways in strict dollars and cents pay for selves? Would you do away with roadways?

OK! So destroy the National Stadium, the Trelawny Stadium and all our other sports arena...they do not pay for themselves? Right?

Didnt say I disagreed with you...just pointing to the consistency!

[Karl]

Didnt say I disagreed with you...just pointing to the consistency!

Thanks!
...now if only gamma would realise I am consistent? ~sigh~

[Don1]

You should be able to answer the first question, you have arrived at a conclusion.

Can you tell us ?

It's because I can't find a reasonable answer that I came to my opinion. The business is just not there to support the service.

[Muadib]

How many years does your analysis cover ?

Present, near-term and long term business activity ?

[Don1]

The high cost of fuel is becoming an impediment to the movement of goods the world over, and we are not just talking about bulk goods here. There is no where in the world where rail service has been launched with private funds, rail service requires public investment.

However it may be funded this is a losing, unnecessary proposition for our semi- bankrupt economy.
The freight volumes are not there for a competitive rail service - especially with the highway expansion underway.
Truck haulage is expensive yes- but much more flexible than rail given Jamaica's tiny size and need to service scattered, mountain-bound communities... they cannot be adequately or economically serviced by rail.

Rail works best over long distances with large volumes.... Jamaica has neither.... so this is a financial disaster-in-waiting.

It's a pretty silly idea to me for Jamaica at this time... but it does sound romantic and brings back the wonder years of yore.

[Gamma]

you are!!! never said that you weren't consistent! you are VERY consistent!!!

[Don1]

The argument was if Rail service can be profitable in Ja and I say yes it can be but like Air Jamaica we will not concentrate on the profitable routes but will try and please everybody.

I know you say yes... I also know you are 100% wrong.

[Don1]

Aid in relief of social pressures - ego - cheaper delivery of goods! ...and affordable movement of people. ...not saying that in this phase of Jamaica's economic development it is economical as business entity...but am saying it is less painful to (the masses) use taxes - i.e. government subsidies to lower costs on traveling, cost of (moving and thus lowering of and or containing prices of) goods and produce.

So you apparently see the rail service as an advanced "Crash Program" to provide jobs... bad idea.
It won't lower the cost of transport if it is not economical... Jamaicans will pay more taxes to support it and incur more debt... so costs are increased not decreased... that's basic economics.


As to whether or not we can afford this now...in my mind managing...good management of Jamaica (consider her one large business entity) is all about the managers recognising what is needed, 'producing' the funds - internal sources and external sources - to do all that should be done.


If it's not an economically viable service... Jamaica can't afford it. period


What stops us from 'doing all things'...all at the same time? In my mind, lack of good managers! The PNP while it had its good deeds...had too many areas not being managed properly. It is now for the JLP to prove up to the job of moving on all fronts...or no!

Management is not at the moment the main impediment to project development... high debt load (among the world's highest debt to GDP ratios) and lack of access to affordable capital are the main problems. Management can be acquired much easier than capital... just price it right.
Jamaica does not have the available capital to do "all things". Therefore hard choices must be made.
Rail is a poor choice now.


Aside: There is division of labour...and I think we have enough Jamaicans
and others...competent Jamaicans to put in place competent managers in all areas...including those who must act as co-ordinators...thus ensuring all 'the parts' work well together to first get us moving towards what we aspire to...then to get us where we want. That means Jamaicans (JLP, PNP and No P) and outside persons with the talent and expertise must be assembled used to do the competent job! Will this JLP be the party that puts those various competent persons together? We'll see!

Again, this is not a problem that turns on management or politics... it's a question of economic viability and economic necessity.... it fails both tests in my view.

If you want to spend US$300m - spend it directly on education and slum upgrading/social and community development for poor people- free them from squalor- watch crime decline and our economic possibilities grow-- much better ROI.

[Don1]

How many years does your analysis cover ?

Present, near-term and long term business activity ?

In my opinion rail service will not be viable for the forseeable future.

If and when the economy starts growing rapidly and the highway systems being built now approach capacity... perhaps rail will then be a viable alternative.

[Mosiah]

...but it does sound romantic and brings back the wonder years of yore.

Even the wonder years of (bauxite) ore are gone.

[Don1]

Jamaica has access to cheap capital.

Where do you think the money came from to build the Trelawny "white elephant" stadium?

CHINESE money.

You think China building this fi joke? They want Jamaica as the Western Hemispheric hub.

The rail is to move CHINESE goods from port to port (sea and water ports) and to move Jamaican goods for export. The Deputy Prez of China tell unno all this in his 2 day visit in Feb. 2005.

Plans are in the works,,,watch.

If the Chinese want that (I attended the 2005 road show and heard the big talk) let them build it on their dime!

If these Chinese logistics investments are imminent then the country should be told that the rail revival ties into that as an integral part and will therefore be of economic benefit... until I see that in a concrete fashion... rail to me doesn't make sense.

BTW I can see the Chinese investing in a Jamaica container terminal and logistics/distribution center to service the Americas (they already have that in Panama where they control several terminals) but this would be for export... ie needing no extensive rail component... our internal market is too tiny.

One hopes that you are correct however.

[Don1]

My sentiments exactly. I am worried that Mike is going to move along with this, regardless! I don't mind some rail activity, but I don't think we should be trying to revive the old system, routes and all, of the former system. We should be looking at a people mover between Portmore and Kingston. Indeed, we need to be building up the commercial aspects of Portmore so that people wouldn't have to commute to Kingston they way they have been. But a short and quick rail system between the two cities would be the way to go in my view.

Not entirely against Henry's proposal but just hope he realises we don't have to go full 100 with the old system. Times have changed.

Portmore People Mover light commuter rail has my vote

[Don1]

My sentiments exactly. I am worried that Mike is going to move along with this, regardless! I don't mind some rail activity, but I don't think we should be trying to revive the old system, routes and all, of the former system. We should be looking at a people mover between Portmore and Kingston. Indeed, we need to be building up the commercial aspects of Portmore so that people wouldn't have to commute to Kingston they way they have been. But a short and quick rail system between the two cities would be the way to go in my view.

Not entirely against Henry's proposal but just hope he realises we don't have to go full 100 with the old system. Times have changed.

Portmore People Mover light commuter rail has my vote

[Willi]

If the Chinese want that (I attended the 2005 road show and heard the big talk) let them build it on their dime!

If these Chinese logistics investments are imminent then the country should be told that the rail revival ties into that as an integral part and will therefore be of economic benefit... until I see that in a concrete fashion... rail to me doesn't make sense.

BTW I can see the Chinese investing in a Jamaica container terminal and logistics/distribution center to service the Americas (they already have that in Panama where they control several terminals) but this would be for export... ie needing no extensive rail component... our internal market is too tiny.

One hopes that you are correct however.

Vernamfield to Pt Esquivel to Pt Bustamante to MoBay!

This IS on Chinese dime, but they will pretty it up and call it a loan which will be forgotten.

Korea "owns" Panama, and theortically Kingston is better anyway.