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The Impact of Pastor Wright and THE SPEECH on Election 2008
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Two days after Barack Obama gave the most important speech of his life, it remains unclear what impact the controversy over Pastor Jeremiah Wright will have on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. However, early data suggests that it has already had a negative impact on Obama’s chances of winning the general election against John McCain. The good news for Obama is that his numbers have stopped falling since his speech on Tuesday. The bad news is that they haven’t bounced back.
In the week before the media frenzy over Wright, Obama and McCain were essentially tied in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Less than a week later, and two days after Obama’s speech, McCain had opened a seven-point lead over Obama. Significantly, by Thursday’s polling, McCain had pulled slightly ahead of Obama among unaffiliated voters. McCain also enjoys unified support from Republican voters while Obama only attracts 65% of Democratic votes at this time.
Obama’s favorable ratings have also fallen below the 50% mark since the world learned of his former Pastor. This can be seen as part of a larger trend that began shortly after Obama’s victories in the Wisconsin Primaries. At that time, just before Hillary Clinton began raising questions about her competitor, Obama was viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide. That had slipped to 52% just before Pastor Wright’s views became big news and to 47% just before Obama’s speech. Two days after the speech, Obama’s favorables remain at 48%.
As for the Democratic race, the impact is much harder to assess. Obama generally led Clinton for several weeks leading up to the March 4 Primaries. With victories in Texas and Ohio on that day, Clinton moved into the lead nationally. But, that faded by the weekend and Obama moved ahead once again. Just before the Pastor Wright story exploded on the scene, Obama reached the 50% level of support for the first time. He also had an eight-point lead over Clinton. Now, two days after Obama’s speech in Philadelphia, his advantage over Clinton is down to three points. However, his numbers among Democrats appear to have stabilized in the last couple of days.
Barring a big surprise in the next few weeks, the Democratic Presidential Nomination will be determined by the superdelegates. They will be watching the polls and other signs carefully to determine whether or not the events of the past week will have a lasting impact. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis looks at whether or not Obama can recover from his Pastor Problem.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Two days after Barack Obama gave the most important speech of his life, it remains unclear what impact the controversy over Pastor Jeremiah Wright will have on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. However, early data suggests that it has already had a negative impact on Obama’s chances of winning the general election against John McCain. The good news for Obama is that his numbers have stopped falling since his speech on Tuesday. The bad news is that they haven’t bounced back.
In the week before the media frenzy over Wright, Obama and McCain were essentially tied in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Less than a week later, and two days after Obama’s speech, McCain had opened a seven-point lead over Obama. Significantly, by Thursday’s polling, McCain had pulled slightly ahead of Obama among unaffiliated voters. McCain also enjoys unified support from Republican voters while Obama only attracts 65% of Democratic votes at this time.
Obama’s favorable ratings have also fallen below the 50% mark since the world learned of his former Pastor. This can be seen as part of a larger trend that began shortly after Obama’s victories in the Wisconsin Primaries. At that time, just before Hillary Clinton began raising questions about her competitor, Obama was viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide. That had slipped to 52% just before Pastor Wright’s views became big news and to 47% just before Obama’s speech. Two days after the speech, Obama’s favorables remain at 48%.
As for the Democratic race, the impact is much harder to assess. Obama generally led Clinton for several weeks leading up to the March 4 Primaries. With victories in Texas and Ohio on that day, Clinton moved into the lead nationally. But, that faded by the weekend and Obama moved ahead once again. Just before the Pastor Wright story exploded on the scene, Obama reached the 50% level of support for the first time. He also had an eight-point lead over Clinton. Now, two days after Obama’s speech in Philadelphia, his advantage over Clinton is down to three points. However, his numbers among Democrats appear to have stabilized in the last couple of days.
Barring a big surprise in the next few weeks, the Democratic Presidential Nomination will be determined by the superdelegates. They will be watching the polls and other signs carefully to determine whether or not the events of the past week will have a lasting impact. A Rasmussen Reports video analysis looks at whether or not Obama can recover from his Pastor Problem.
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