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Observer EDITORIAL: The phenomenon which is Barack Obama

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  • Observer EDITORIAL: The phenomenon which is Barack Obama

    The phenomenon which is Barack Obama

    Thursday, February 14, 2008


    We continue to watch with a great deal of excitement the unfolding race between Mr Barack Obama and Mrs Hillary Clinton for nomination by the Democratic party as its presidential candidate for the November 2008 elections.
    Whoever the winner, American political history will be created, with Mr Obama becoming the first African-American nominee or Mrs Clinton becoming the first woman nominee of the Democratic Party.


    The excitement being generated by that race has migrated beyond American shores, as the big news networks throw considerable resources into the coverage.

    Mr Obama is emerging as a phenomenon, drawing unusually large crowds to his meetings and out-raising his formidable rival in campaign funds. Often referred to as the junior senator from Illinois, he has also inspired many young people and others who had demonstrated political apathy to join his "Yes we can" campaign.

    At Observer press time, he had overtaken Mrs Clinton in the delegates count, having won 21 primaries and caucuses, to her 10, despite her large support base among the so-called super delegates.

    Admittedly, it is still difficult to project Mr Obama as the winner of the nomination and eventually the US presidency. There is very little by which to reference the surge he has made.

    Prior to Mr Obama, the only African-American to stake a credible claim to the nomination was the Rev Jesse Jackson, and not even he came anywhere close to what the Chicago senator has achieved.

    The momentum being developed by Mr Obama seems to have taken even the Clinton campaign by surprise. The clearest sign yet of the pressure reaching her campaign is the removal of her campaign manager to the post of senior advisor, replaced by a black woman, and the resignation of the deputy campaign manager.

    One of the interesting points being raised is the fact that Mr Obama could not have won that many primaries and caucuses without the solid support of white Americans, given that blacks constitute only about one-twelfth of the US population.

    There is a view that many whites are energised by his message of hope and change and are so tired of the current Washington politics that they are willing to give Mr Obama a try. They have also dispensed with old racial stereotypes.
    Mr Obama is being compared with names like John F Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr, Malcolm X and Jesse Jackson in respect of his charisma and oratorical skills. He is drawing support from across the social and economic spectrum and is increasingly being seen as one who can attract independents and even Republican voters fed up with the politics of their party.

    Interestingly, early polls pitting him against the likely Republican nominee, Senator John McCain, put Mr Obama slightly ahead, suggesting that his racial origin would not be a handicap in the presidential race to come.

    This is critical for Mr Obama to gain the confidence and solid backing of the Democratic Party going into the elections.
    Of course, whichever candidate or party wins, Jamaica will continue to enjoy its historically close relationship with the United States. But it is always exhilarating to watch as history unfolds.
    "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

  • #2
    Barack surges
    published: Thursday | February 14, 2008


    John Rapley
    "You'll eat humble pie!" I was told over my prediction that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination in the US presidential campaign. I could only reply that as an Obama enthusiast, if served humble pie in his honour, I would happily take a second helping!

    Watching as Mr Obama romped to lopsided victories in Tuesday's primaries, I couldn't help but wonder if it was time to revise my prediction. Just as my predictions that George W. Bush would win both 2000 and 2004 elections weren't based on my hopes, but on my readings of the data, my prediction of a Hillary win reflects anything but my own wishes. Until Tuesday night, I stood by it.

    However, as I saw the vote totals climb, and listened to the speeches, I found myself wondering what options the Clinton campaign had left to thwart Mr Obama's rise. It tried the inevitability act; Mr Obama tore it to ribbons. The campaign then turned negative. That backfired, and pundits said nasty doesn't work against hope. Finally, the Clintons pulled the long-awaited race card from their sleeve. Critics roared at their ploy, but it finally seemed to do the trick: the Democratic electorate began to polarise along racial lines, to Hillary's advantage.

    Winning race after race
    Until Tuesday night, that is. Exit polls revealed that Mr Obama made back a lot of the support he lost to Hillary Clinton among white voters, in particular. He is winning race after race, and may well do so for the next couple of weeks, at least. The talk now is of "momentum".
    Commentators suggest a string of big wins could give Mr Obama the mantle of invincibility which Mrs Clinton long ago lost, enabling him to break for the finish line.

    My heart and mind are fighting this one out. Like so many people, I have had high hopes for Mr Obama since his celebrated convention speech four years ago. He is on a roll, racking up delegates, turning out crowds.

    Still, it is too soon to write an obituary for Mrs Clinton's presidential campaign. They are staking everything on holding the line early next month when Texas and Ohio hold their primaries. If - and it's a big 'if' - Mrs Clinton can stem the Obama advance at that point, she has one hope left.

    Lead inching up
    It is this: Despite his big wins, Mr Obama's lead in delegates is inching up slowly. Were his momentum to slow while his delegate-lead remained small, Mrs Clinton could then do two things to regain the lead. First, she could argue for the inclusion of delegates from Florida and Michigan. Second, she could rely on her husband to win 'superdelegates' from the party establishment. Apparently, Bill's silence of late is no accident. He is busy working the phone lines to the party insiders who could break the tie at the party convention.

    Many will loudly condemn this strategy for its cynicism, and for being anti-democratic. It would hardly be the first time the Clintons were accused of base motives. But sentiment and principle aside, the numbers suggest that Hillary still has a chance of pulling this off.

    As for Mrs Clinton's political obituary, I actually wrote that several years ago. It is sitting on my desk, awaiting the day I have always predicted the sun would finally set on the Clintons' reign over the Democratic Party: the morning after the 2008 election. Until then, I still reason, we have to put up with them just a bit longer.

    And if I'm faced with that bit of humble pie come November, I doubt I'll have an appetite to eat much of anything!

    John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent think tank affiliated to the UWI, Mona.
    "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

    Comment


    • #3
      Damn!
      This guy is saying if Hillary wins the democratic nomination the Democcrats will loss the Presidential Elections?

      Why did he not say what he thinks will happen if Barack wins?
      "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

      Comment

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