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Monumental change unfolding in America
published: Thursday | February 7, 2008
Whatever the eventual outcome of the race for the presidency of the United States, it is already clear that something of monumental proportions has already taken place. We already know that the Democratic Party nominee for the November election will be either a woman in Hillary Clinton, or a mixed-race man, Barack Obama, who, in the racial categorisation of the United States, is African-American. Not so long ago, the likelihood of a woman or a black being viable candidates for the presidency of the USA would be difficult, if not impossible, to contemplate.
As it now appears, after the so-called Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses in 22 states, Mrs Clinton or Mr Obama will face Senator John McCain as the Republican Party nominee in November. Indeed, no candidate emerged from Super Tuesday with a decisive position. The arithmetic, however, suggests that neither of McCain's rivals, Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney, can garner enough delegates in the coming contests to block the Arizona senator, especially if both men stay in the race.
The situation on the Democratic side, though, is far from clear-cut and the race between Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama could go all the way to their party's convention in the summer. Both candidates on Tuesday underlined their viability, and particularly in the case of Senator Obama, demonstrated how far America has emerged from its Jim Crow past, even if it still has a fair way to go.
But whether it is Mrs Clinton or Mr Obama, the contrast with their Republican opponent(s) is stark, both on domestic and global issues, ranging from the economy to the war in Iraq. Here is where the rest of the world is paying significant attention.
Both Senators Clinton and Obama want an early withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and disengagement from a war that has cost America dearly, in terms of the lives lost, the monetary cost, the impact on its economy and US prestige in the world. There is no gainsaying that long before the war grew unpopular at home, most people elsewhere felt that the Bush administration waged it more on ideological than legal or moral grounds. The cost of the war has been a significant contributor to America's huge fiscal deficit, its growing debt and a weakening of its economy. Yet, Mr McCain advocates America staying in Iraq for the long haul and hints at a foreign policy that would be hardly more nuanced or textured than President Bush's.
Even if Americans signal a wish for change and would perhaps like to see the Republicans exit the White House, there is no certainly that either Mrs Clinton or Mr Obama can go all the way. Identity politics could get in the way.
For all the advances we alluded to earlier, this race is not being fought purely on the issues, especially on the Democratic side. On Super Tuesday, Mr Obama won heavily among black voters, gaining, for instance eight of 10 of the African American ballots in Alabama. He also did reasonably well among white males, young people and high-income earners. Mrs Clinton, on the other hand, appealed to the Democratic base of blue-collar workers, as well as white women, Hispanics, and Asian voters.
America is clearly heading toward monumental electoral change.
The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.
published: Thursday | February 7, 2008
Whatever the eventual outcome of the race for the presidency of the United States, it is already clear that something of monumental proportions has already taken place. We already know that the Democratic Party nominee for the November election will be either a woman in Hillary Clinton, or a mixed-race man, Barack Obama, who, in the racial categorisation of the United States, is African-American. Not so long ago, the likelihood of a woman or a black being viable candidates for the presidency of the USA would be difficult, if not impossible, to contemplate.
As it now appears, after the so-called Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses in 22 states, Mrs Clinton or Mr Obama will face Senator John McCain as the Republican Party nominee in November. Indeed, no candidate emerged from Super Tuesday with a decisive position. The arithmetic, however, suggests that neither of McCain's rivals, Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney, can garner enough delegates in the coming contests to block the Arizona senator, especially if both men stay in the race.
The situation on the Democratic side, though, is far from clear-cut and the race between Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama could go all the way to their party's convention in the summer. Both candidates on Tuesday underlined their viability, and particularly in the case of Senator Obama, demonstrated how far America has emerged from its Jim Crow past, even if it still has a fair way to go.
But whether it is Mrs Clinton or Mr Obama, the contrast with their Republican opponent(s) is stark, both on domestic and global issues, ranging from the economy to the war in Iraq. Here is where the rest of the world is paying significant attention.
Both Senators Clinton and Obama want an early withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and disengagement from a war that has cost America dearly, in terms of the lives lost, the monetary cost, the impact on its economy and US prestige in the world. There is no gainsaying that long before the war grew unpopular at home, most people elsewhere felt that the Bush administration waged it more on ideological than legal or moral grounds. The cost of the war has been a significant contributor to America's huge fiscal deficit, its growing debt and a weakening of its economy. Yet, Mr McCain advocates America staying in Iraq for the long haul and hints at a foreign policy that would be hardly more nuanced or textured than President Bush's.
Even if Americans signal a wish for change and would perhaps like to see the Republicans exit the White House, there is no certainly that either Mrs Clinton or Mr Obama can go all the way. Identity politics could get in the way.
For all the advances we alluded to earlier, this race is not being fought purely on the issues, especially on the Democratic side. On Super Tuesday, Mr Obama won heavily among black voters, gaining, for instance eight of 10 of the African American ballots in Alabama. He also did reasonably well among white males, young people and high-income earners. Mrs Clinton, on the other hand, appealed to the Democratic base of blue-collar workers, as well as white women, Hispanics, and Asian voters.
America is clearly heading toward monumental electoral change.
The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.