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Many perils in the Obama campaign
Diane Abbott
Sunday, January 13, 2008
The Obama saga goes on. After his triumph in Iowa, Barak Obama was narrowly defeated in New Hampshire. The defeat was sobering and should remind us all that racism remains a huge force in America.
Diane Abbott
Pundits are still puzzled about how Obama's two-digit lead in the opinion polls turned into a narrow victory for Hillary Clinton. Some argue that carefully judged tears by Hillary helped to bring female voters back to her. There may be some truth in that. But there was one big difference between Ohio and New Hampshire. The Ohio caucus is a public meeting, but the New Hampshire primary is a secret ballot. And there is plenty of evidence that white American voters, who may claim to pollsters that they are going to vote for a black man, in the privacy of the polling booth just cannot bring themselves to do it.
In 1982, former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost the governor race to a white man, even though the polls consistently showed him 10 points ahead. In 1989, Doug Wilder scraped home as governor of Virginia by less than a point, even though he had consistently led his white opponent by 10 points. And in 2006, Harold Ford Junior lost his bid for a Tennessee Senate seat, even though the polls put him ahead. There is a type of Democratic Party supporter who does not like to say publicly they will not vote for their party's black candidate but, in the end, they will not.
But Obama's battle continues. As his campaign swings into states south of the Mason-Dixon Line he will need black voters. But most Democratic Party black power brokers are locked into the Clinton machine. Bill Clinton himself has an office in Harlem. And black activists are sceptical about Obama.
They wonder how he managed to get so much Wall Street money so early. They wonder how radical he really is. White people are very comfortable with Obama. His white mother, the fact that he did not come up through the civil rights movement and the fact that he talks very little about race; these things all put white people at their ease. But these are precisely the things that make black voters sceptical. So his central dilemma is how does he keep his white support and still reach out to black voters.
The Clintons will make this a fight to the finish. It has long been rumoured that they have dirt on Obama and they can be expected to roll it out. And, if he survives their onslaught to win the Democratic nomination, the Republicans can be expected to unleash a "shock and awe" racist campaign against him.
They (or more likely their surrogates) can be relied on to dig up the drug dealing cousin, the aggrieved Kenyan relative and even a trembling southern belle with whispered allegations of sexual harassment.
But, if the Obama campaign has many perils, it also offers the Democratic Party a huge prize. If he can mobilise the black vote in unprecedented numbers, then in the presidential election he can take back from the Republicans a series of southern states. Then it would be within his grasp to rebuild the invincible FD Roosevelt coalition of the south, the northern cities and the intelligentsia. Washington would be transformed, not just for one presidential term, but for a generation.
And imagine a freezing March day next year in Washington and a black man standing on the steps of the US Capitol, with his black wife and children looking on, taking the presidential oath. It would be a transcendent moment, not just for America, but around the world.
Diane Abbott
Sunday, January 13, 2008
The Obama saga goes on. After his triumph in Iowa, Barak Obama was narrowly defeated in New Hampshire. The defeat was sobering and should remind us all that racism remains a huge force in America.
Diane Abbott Pundits are still puzzled about how Obama's two-digit lead in the opinion polls turned into a narrow victory for Hillary Clinton. Some argue that carefully judged tears by Hillary helped to bring female voters back to her. There may be some truth in that. But there was one big difference between Ohio and New Hampshire. The Ohio caucus is a public meeting, but the New Hampshire primary is a secret ballot. And there is plenty of evidence that white American voters, who may claim to pollsters that they are going to vote for a black man, in the privacy of the polling booth just cannot bring themselves to do it.
In 1982, former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost the governor race to a white man, even though the polls consistently showed him 10 points ahead. In 1989, Doug Wilder scraped home as governor of Virginia by less than a point, even though he had consistently led his white opponent by 10 points. And in 2006, Harold Ford Junior lost his bid for a Tennessee Senate seat, even though the polls put him ahead. There is a type of Democratic Party supporter who does not like to say publicly they will not vote for their party's black candidate but, in the end, they will not.
But Obama's battle continues. As his campaign swings into states south of the Mason-Dixon Line he will need black voters. But most Democratic Party black power brokers are locked into the Clinton machine. Bill Clinton himself has an office in Harlem. And black activists are sceptical about Obama.
They wonder how he managed to get so much Wall Street money so early. They wonder how radical he really is. White people are very comfortable with Obama. His white mother, the fact that he did not come up through the civil rights movement and the fact that he talks very little about race; these things all put white people at their ease. But these are precisely the things that make black voters sceptical. So his central dilemma is how does he keep his white support and still reach out to black voters.
The Clintons will make this a fight to the finish. It has long been rumoured that they have dirt on Obama and they can be expected to roll it out. And, if he survives their onslaught to win the Democratic nomination, the Republicans can be expected to unleash a "shock and awe" racist campaign against him.
They (or more likely their surrogates) can be relied on to dig up the drug dealing cousin, the aggrieved Kenyan relative and even a trembling southern belle with whispered allegations of sexual harassment.
But, if the Obama campaign has many perils, it also offers the Democratic Party a huge prize. If he can mobilise the black vote in unprecedented numbers, then in the presidential election he can take back from the Republicans a series of southern states. Then it would be within his grasp to rebuild the invincible FD Roosevelt coalition of the south, the northern cities and the intelligentsia. Washington would be transformed, not just for one presidential term, but for a generation.
And imagine a freezing March day next year in Washington and a black man standing on the steps of the US Capitol, with his black wife and children looking on, taking the presidential oath. It would be a transcendent moment, not just for America, but around the world.
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