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Driverless vehicle technology a blessing or curse for Jamaica?
Dennis Morrison
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
The news from the Consumer Electronics Show being held this week in Las Vegas that General Motors is well on its way to testing driverless vehicle technology by 2015 should raise hopes in Jamaica.
Dennis Morrison
The company's claim that the technology will cut down on human error means that we may one day be able to curtail the death toll on our roads. General Motors regards this innovation as evidence that it can get over its failing industrial-age image and regain pride of place as a cutting-edge competitor.
But for Jamaicans the key attraction of driverless vehicles would be the prospect of dramatically reduced accidents and congestion on our roads. Or are we likely to treat this technology as a tool to reinforce risk-taking?
The buzz created by the unveiling of a prototype self-driving vehicle at the Las Vegas event comes after reports indicating that car sales in the USA slumped to a nine-year low in 2007. These reports also revealed that Toyota overtook Ford as Number 2 in the US auto sales ranking, a position Ford had held since 1931. While Ford's sales fell by 12 per cent last year Toyota's grew by 2.7 per cent. General Motors saw sales drop by 6 per cent as its share of the US market declined one percentage point to 23.5 per cent, even though it regained the top spot worldwide and remained ahead of Toyota in the US market.
The pressure being encountered by America's once dominant auto producers seems unrelenting as foreign competitors are well positioned to grab increased market share at a time when sales are expected to decline further. Indeed, analysts are projecting that auto sales in the USA may not exceed 15.5-15.9 million this year which would be the lowest level in more than a decade. But Toyota expects its US business to grow in 2008 and anticipates its global sales will increase by 5 per cent.
Given the latest prognosis about the increased risk of economic recession in the USA the situation of the auto industry is almost certain to get worse. The Detroit automakers are therefore faced with the difficult task of finding strategies to turn around their operations and regain market share in a weakening economic environment. Not surprisingly, after several years of lacklustre sales and loss of profitability, their share prices have plummeted. New technologies and innovation are therefore being seen as essential in meeting the challenges.
For example, applying new technologies to meet the increased fuel economy standards just approved by the US government presents an important opportunity to regain a competitive advantage. The message from the election campaign where the Democratic candidates are framing a nationalistic economic message about energy security suggests that publicly funded research programmes to develop and apply such technologies could be given greater attention. Opposition to this approach is now muted because US$100 per barrel oil prices and US$3.00 per gallon gasoline have become today's realities.
Contrary to the rhetoric of laissez-faire ideology, the US government has been a decisive force in supporting basic research that has led to technological breakthroughs in collaboration with industry leaders in several fields. The driverless vehicle technology is just one such instance and in this case the initiative was sponsored by the US Defence Department. For Jamaica, advances in fuel economy would bring major benefits in terms of our fuel bill and economic stability. That is not to discount the gains which could be made in saving lives on our roads were driverless vehicle technology to prove successful.
Sorry but I beg to differ with the above in red. In the height of the info age;haveing nothing to offer (but gambling and entertainment) will be costly, hence only a few elite will be able to own these exotic technology. Furthermore these cars will rely on an immense network of artificial intelligence (satellite links et alli) The price will be too high for us, hence we will become "low techs"
(Please see movie Johnnny Nuemonic, starring keanau Reeves (sp) to further grasp the point of low tech).
Driverless vehicle technology a blessing or curse for Jamaica?
Dennis Morrison
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
The news from the Consumer Electronics Show being held this week in Las Vegas that General Motors is well on its way to testing driverless vehicle technology by 2015 should raise hopes in Jamaica.
Dennis Morrison The company's claim that the technology will cut down on human error means that we may one day be able to curtail the death toll on our roads. General Motors regards this innovation as evidence that it can get over its failing industrial-age image and regain pride of place as a cutting-edge competitor.
But for Jamaicans the key attraction of driverless vehicles would be the prospect of dramatically reduced accidents and congestion on our roads. Or are we likely to treat this technology as a tool to reinforce risk-taking?
The buzz created by the unveiling of a prototype self-driving vehicle at the Las Vegas event comes after reports indicating that car sales in the USA slumped to a nine-year low in 2007. These reports also revealed that Toyota overtook Ford as Number 2 in the US auto sales ranking, a position Ford had held since 1931. While Ford's sales fell by 12 per cent last year Toyota's grew by 2.7 per cent. General Motors saw sales drop by 6 per cent as its share of the US market declined one percentage point to 23.5 per cent, even though it regained the top spot worldwide and remained ahead of Toyota in the US market.
The pressure being encountered by America's once dominant auto producers seems unrelenting as foreign competitors are well positioned to grab increased market share at a time when sales are expected to decline further. Indeed, analysts are projecting that auto sales in the USA may not exceed 15.5-15.9 million this year which would be the lowest level in more than a decade. But Toyota expects its US business to grow in 2008 and anticipates its global sales will increase by 5 per cent.
Given the latest prognosis about the increased risk of economic recession in the USA the situation of the auto industry is almost certain to get worse. The Detroit automakers are therefore faced with the difficult task of finding strategies to turn around their operations and regain market share in a weakening economic environment. Not surprisingly, after several years of lacklustre sales and loss of profitability, their share prices have plummeted. New technologies and innovation are therefore being seen as essential in meeting the challenges.
For example, applying new technologies to meet the increased fuel economy standards just approved by the US government presents an important opportunity to regain a competitive advantage. The message from the election campaign where the Democratic candidates are framing a nationalistic economic message about energy security suggests that publicly funded research programmes to develop and apply such technologies could be given greater attention. Opposition to this approach is now muted because US$100 per barrel oil prices and US$3.00 per gallon gasoline have become today's realities.
Contrary to the rhetoric of laissez-faire ideology, the US government has been a decisive force in supporting basic research that has led to technological breakthroughs in collaboration with industry leaders in several fields. The driverless vehicle technology is just one such instance and in this case the initiative was sponsored by the US Defence Department. For Jamaica, advances in fuel economy would bring major benefits in terms of our fuel bill and economic stability. That is not to discount the gains which could be made in saving lives on our roads were driverless vehicle technology to prove successful.
Sorry but I beg to differ with the above in red. In the height of the info age;haveing nothing to offer (but gambling and entertainment) will be costly, hence only a few elite will be able to own these exotic technology. Furthermore these cars will rely on an immense network of artificial intelligence (satellite links et alli) The price will be too high for us, hence we will become "low techs"
(Please see movie Johnnny Nuemonic, starring keanau Reeves (sp) to further grasp the point of low tech).