Dutch Authorities think that Trafigura

[Willi]

Willi this piece essentially backs me up on my previously outlined positions:

My previously made points:

1. The Dutch are after their own nationals
2. They have zero power in Jamaica but can be granted a visit for talks with people who may or may not agree to speak with them.
3. If they have evidence they will give to local authorities for follow up.

I have no special knowledge of the case but based on my assessment of the publicly available facts and knowledge of how Jamaica runs, at the end of the day I don't see any criminal prosecution in Jamaica.

The deal breaker is if the Dutch possess some sensational evidence of a bribe that is acceptable in Jamaican jurisprudence. Absent that this is a storm in a teacup and will be relegated to St. Andrew verandah talk and regular airings on Perkins Online.

It's just an opinion. I could be wrong but that's my take on that issue.

Bulbgate is potentially far more dangerous for PNP types.

Respek

I disagree with the conclusion about what is more dangerous. While the dutch do not represent a direct threat, they could represent the greater POTENTIAL threat. Their evidence quality and quantity is a big unknown factor.

[Willi]

Leave Jamaica with evidence??? Evidence from whom?? PNP sources??
You could only refer here to evidence from the PNP side.
If such evidence exists how are the Dutch to get it from the PNP? Threaten them with tulips?

You need to think this thing through.

If the GOJ has evidence then investigations/prosecution would have begun on Sep. 4 or as soon as possible afterward. So we can assume GOJ has nothing actionable.
Obviously any evidence on the PNP side will be unreachable as they will obstruct.

This thing only works if the Dutch themselves have some actionable evidence of wrongdoing by the Jamaican officials.

OECD can huff and puff all they like..... nothing will come of this in my opinion. Not because I believe the transaction was above board (the money was intended I believe for electioneering... the commercial transaction was a clear ruse) but just because of the realities of evidence and differing jurisdictions and stonewalling by the PNP.

Don1, I am not accusing U of anything or even ascribing a motive....even in spite of your unfortunate "complex" comment (uncalled for).

I follow your argument perfectly, but you keep missing potential pitfall. The evidence that the Dutch get from the PNP if any will likely reinforce the Donation position. The Dutch may well be aided by a parallel Jakan investigation that pressures the PNP into a position. The donation testimony and "proof" can then be used to attack the Trafigura position of a "commercial" arrangement. Prisoners dilemma.

You may well be right about the final outcome, but right now, nothing is certain. A serious game is now underway.

[Muadib]

What realities of evidence ?

Your 'opinion' at this point is worthless since you lack sufficient data.

I can understand you might be hopeful because this could make lightbulb ting a joke.

The potential is frightening but don't stick your head in the sand.

Mi tell yuh again to ponder this:

Why do the Dutch believe that Trafigura has bribed Jamaican Officials ?

It may be a stretch but I suspect this belief is based on information that they possess.

Yuh tink the Dutch have time fi waste on wild goose chases ? or yuh tink dem looking a free vacation ?

[Assasin]

For all we know more money could be involved. Is it a one time deal or something going on for a long time?

Is there any account outside of Jamaica?

Mek Don1 stay deh, as you say we know not what the Dutch Government have. It maybe nothing but it can be big as well so we just have to wait and see.

[Don1]

For all we know more money could be involved. Is it a one time deal or something going on for a long time?

Is there any account outside of Jamaica?

Mek Don1 stay deh, as you say we know not what the Dutch Government have. It maybe nothing but it can be big as well so we just have to wait and see.

You guys keep validating my points and caveats (without realising it perhaps).

I keep saying my analysis is based on "publicly available facts" and that the deal breaker is the quality of the evidence the Dutch have if any. That seems to me to be consonant with your views above even if my conclusion is different from yours. Obviously if the available facts change materially.... my conclusion could change.

Once more ...... absent new, sensational and actionable evidence from the Dutch this issue is going nowhere. There is no significant new evidence that will emerge out of Jamaica...... it would have come to light already.

If the Dutch are going to Jamaica looking for evidence to buttress their case against their nationals all they will get is a lot of publicity and attention (largely from those easily excited by white foreigners) and hopefully a nice vacation.

[Don1]

Don1, I am not accusing U of anything or even ascribing a motive....even in spite of your unfortunate "complex" comment (uncalled for).

I follow your argument perfectly, but you keep missing potential pitfall. The evidence that the Dutch get from the PNP if any will likely reinforce the Donation position. The Dutch may well be aided by a parallel Jakan investigation that pressures the PNP into a position. The donation testimony and "proof" can then be used to attack the Trafigura position of a "commercial" arrangement. Prisoners dilemma.

You may well be right about the final outcome, but right now, nothing is certain. A serious game is now underway.

First, the "complex" comment was absolutely in no way directed at you. I had others in mind.

I agree with your comments here. The big unknown is what evidence the Dutch have. I have always had that caveat.

At this point I don't see a terrible endgame for the PNP. Things can change depending on what else is out there of course.

Respek

[Muadib]

Are you saying that the people the Dutch want to question are not going to cooperate in the investigation against Trafigura ?

Heh, heh... is den story gwine start.

Is one thing to not allow them in.. quite another when people start refusing to cooperate in a bribery investigation.... Spotlight gwine hot den !

Mek mi research Obstruction of Justice and Perversion of course of Justice...

[Karl]

I disagree with the conclusion about what is more dangerous. While the dutch do not represent a direct threat, they could represent the greater POTENTIAL threat. Their evidence quality and quantity is a big unknown factor.

Agreed!
...there is also the possibility of someone on the PNP's incriminating self. It is not unknown for a request of 'gimmi a letta fi put innah di files fi mek mi conform tuh di regulations' to be given....as di feelin his dat nah si light a day innah/pan fi yuh part a di transaction dem....????? Trafigura may jus ave such a letta/doc????

Wanda iffen a suh, iffen di PNP wudda ave a reciprocal wan pan fi dem side????

[Assasin]

The difference is the possible outcome. You think nothing definately will come of it but I think it just take one skill investigator and a Kern like character to start sink people.