Opta:analyse the records of the four title contenders so far

[Mexxx]

Opta Investigate: No margin for error
by Matt Furniss, 04 October 2007



With Arsenal leading the Premier League table in a free-scoring manner it seems that they could well be on their way to securing the title for the first time since 2004.

Manchester United follow The Gunners in second place, but seem to be building their success around their defensive capabilities rather than their attack.

In light of this, Opta analyse the records of the four title contenders so far this term and look at the previous champions to see how defence and attack can work together to secure title glory come the end of the campaign.

The Big Four This SeasonTitle ContenderGoals For/GamesGoals Against GamesGoals For/Goals Against MarginArsenal2.260.571.69Chelsea0.881-0.12Liverpool1.710.291.42Man Utd0.880.250.63

The Gunners have exceeded all expectations so far this term, firing in a league-high 16 goals on their way to achieving a two point lead at the top of the table. Arsenal have achieved a 1.69 goals for/goals against margin – the highest of the four contenders for the title.

How important is scoring goals however? Can a side really win the league through keeping clean sheets and winning games by the single goal? If this is really the case, then Manchester United seem to have it cracked.

Last season’s champions have improved since their shaky start and have won their last five league games – keeping a clean sheet in each and scoring only once in four.

Chelsea, on the other hand, are languishing in eighth place. Even though they have scored the same amount as United (seven), they are not as formidable at the back and have conceded an average of a goal a game.

They are the only member of the supposed “Big Four” to have conceded more than they have scored and their average goals for/goal against margin against is currently -0.12 – a poor rate for a potential title-winning side.

Liverpool became the early season contenders for the title after a strong start, but after two 0-0 draws in September they seem to be replicating their old mistakes. Even though this is the case, they have only conceded two goals whilst scoring 12 and have a strong goal for/goals against margin (1.42).

Efficient Champions? The Average GD in Games for Former ChampionsSeasonChampionsGoals For/GamesGoals Against/GamesGoals For/Goals Against Margin2006/07Man Utd2.180.711.472005/06Chelsea1.890.581.312004/05Chelsea1.890.391.502003/04Arsenal1.920.681.242002/03Man Utd1.950.891.062001/02Arsenal2.080.951.132000/01Man Utd2.080.821.26

[Mexxx]

This didnt format correctle so here is the link

http://sport.setanta.com/en/Sport/Ne...est-for-glory/

[Lazie]

http://sport.setanta.com/en/Sport/Ne...est-for-glory/

I have no problem with what the Empire is doing. Teams FEAR Manu. Take Portsmouth for example? Defenders play on the 6 yard box, mids play on the 18 yard box, and was able to get a point at home. No problem. Then they went to Arsenal and opened up trying to play football. The same thing with Reading.

After losing to Man City, the Empire went back to basics. Unuh watch how the creme rise to the top.

[Hortical]

Chelsea should be replaced in the top four by Man City and I see City competing for a champions league spot this season.

[Rockman]

The stats change every game, really couldn't care less about this supposedly sound, scientific investigation.Margin of error is 0 because it is a snapshot, something of a time capsule, it offers nothing beyond the very minute it was compiled.
I wonder if we really expect Fabregas AND a couple of Arse strikers to score each and every game, there is however that game to game expectation that each of our defenders will keep a clean sheet.


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