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  • #1

    20 % chance Lambert will succeed

    Tomkins’ Law: Only 40% of Transfers Succeed
    By Paul Tomkins, Free, Transfer Price Index ©
    Posted on June 3rd, 2014
    Posted by by Paul Tomkins
    Comments
    21
    Tags

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    By Paul Tomkins.

    The title ‘Tomkins’ Law’ was recently assigned to my transfer theory by Dan Kennett, referring to my observation that only 40% of transfers succeed. (Naming a website after myself may seem vain enough as it is – although it was originally intended to be a solo blog – so I must make it clear that this term was coined by Dan.)

    Years ago I’d guessed that only 50% succeeded, but my subsequent analysis of thousands of deals in the Premier League era showed that not even half the deals proved worth the money.

    The figure of 40% came from ‘TPIC’, the Transfer Price Index Coefficient I devised a couple of years ago. The Transfer Price Index’s conversion of all Premier League transfer fees to a current value (CTPP) enables comparison across the decades; after all, £7m was a record-breaking transfer fee in the mid’-90s, whereas now it’s seen fairly average; using TPI brings it into line with current big-money deals. (For more on TPI, which I created with Graeme Riley, see here.)

    http://tomkinstimes.com/2014/06/tomk...sfers-succeed/
    THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!

    "Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.


    "It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Originally posted by X View Post
    Tomkins’ Law: Only 40% of Transfers Succeed
    By Paul Tomkins, Free, Transfer Price Index ©
    Posted on June 3rd, 2014
    Posted by by Paul Tomkins
    Comments
    21
    Tags

    Don't want ads ? Subscribe to remove them. Only £3.50 a month.

    By Paul Tomkins.

    The title ‘Tomkins’ Law’ was recently assigned to my transfer theory by Dan Kennett, referring to my observation that only 40% of transfers succeed. (Naming a website after myself may seem vain enough as it is – although it was originally intended to be a solo blog – so I must make it clear that this term was coined by Dan.)

    Years ago I’d guessed that only 50% succeeded, but my subsequent analysis of thousands of deals in the Premier League era showed that not even half the deals proved worth the money.

    The figure of 40% came from ‘TPIC’, the Transfer Price Index Coefficient I devised a couple of years ago. The Transfer Price Index’s conversion of all Premier League transfer fees to a current value (CTPP) enables comparison across the decades; after all, £7m was a record-breaking transfer fee in the mid’-90s, whereas now it’s seen fairly average; using TPI brings it into line with current big-money deals. (For more on TPI, which I created with Graeme Riley, see here.)

    http://tomkinstimes.com/2014/06/tomk...sfers-succeed/
    20% chance lambert will succeed? Based on what? This flawed model?
    "H.L & Brick .....mi deh pan di wagon (Man City)" - X_____ http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/forum1/showthread.php?p=378365&highlight=City+Liverpool#p ost378365

    X DESCRIBES HIMSELF - Stop masquerading as if you have the clubs interest at heart, you are a fraud, always was and always will be in any and every thing that you present...

    Comment

    • #3
      You have a better one
      THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!

      "Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.


      "It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.

      Comment

      • #4
        Originally posted by X View Post
        You have a better one
        I don't have to have a better one to know that what he offers, as always, is simplistic and appealing only to those of lesser minds. In otherwords, I don't have to sh!t ice cream to know real sh!t when I see it. Furthermore, figuring out a transfer price index is not how I choose to spend my time, but I know enough to know that the delta between cost and resale is flawed without consideration of a heap of factors that he ignores. Keep following fools and you will become one. This fool in particular has made you make decisions that have lead to your flawed behavior which ultimately has resulted in your tragic and unfortunate dismissal from the Kop and banishment to the ranks of the City vermin. I should draw Tomkins up before the court next! He is a colossal waste of time.
        "H.L & Brick .....mi deh pan di wagon (Man City)" - X_____ http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/forum1/showthread.php?p=378365&highlight=City+Liverpool#p ost378365

        X DESCRIBES HIMSELF - Stop masquerading as if you have the clubs interest at heart, you are a fraud, always was and always will be in any and every thing that you present...

        Comment

        • #5
          what was the odds for 35 million dollar man???

          See Spurs pay money fi two big striker last year, one score pure penalty and the other couldn't find the back of the net.
          • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

          Comment

          • #6
            Tomkins has been spot on from day one,I know the truth hurts.He knows what the realist knows.Last season was the youth coach best chance of winning a title.If our competitors had a holiday schedule, they would have blown out the league.

            No excuses, Sass seems excited for the 4 million dollar man,XPECTED!
            THERE IS ONLY ONE ONANDI LOWE!

            "Good things come out of the garrisons" after his daughter won the 100m Gold For Jamaica.


            "It therefore is useless and pointless, unless it is for share malice and victimisation to arrest and charge a 92-year-old man for such a simple offence. There is nothing morally wrong with this man smoking a spliff; the only thing wrong is that it is still on the law books," said Chevannes.

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by X View Post
              Tomkins has been spot on from day one,I know the truth hurts.He knows what the realist knows.Last season was the youth coach best chance of winning a title.If our competitors had a holiday schedule, they would have blown out the league.

              No excuses, Sass seems excited for the 4 million dollar man,XPECTED!
              "Spot on"? LOL!!! The only "spot" that Tomkins has been "on" is X's G spot. The man is a rank simpleton me sey. KMT. If the Liverpool coach last name isn't "Benitez" him nuh rate him. Now where have we seen that before?

              And your team by the way won the title with a value almost £150m more than Liverpool...you could buy two Sunderland with that. So k-i-s-s-m-i-r-a-s-s. Dyam demagogue, but "we"..move an gweh go back a Sh!tty and leave we out.
              Last edited by Paul Marin; June 5, 2014, 02:06 AM.
              "H.L & Brick .....mi deh pan di wagon (Man City)" - X_____ http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/forum1/showthread.php?p=378365&highlight=City+Liverpool#p ost378365

              X DESCRIBES HIMSELF - Stop masquerading as if you have the clubs interest at heart, you are a fraud, always was and always will be in any and every thing that you present...

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by Assasin View Post
                what was the odds for 35 million dollar man???

                See Spurs pay money fi two big striker last year, one score pure penalty and the other couldn't find the back of the net.
                As far as X is concerned, £35m was money WELL SPENT - hell, £80m got us the League Cup!! (And 8th place) Di bwoy fool nuh fork. LOL!!!
                Last edited by Paul Marin; June 5, 2014, 02:18 AM.
                "H.L & Brick .....mi deh pan di wagon (Man City)" - X_____ http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/forum1/showthread.php?p=378365&highlight=City+Liverpool#p ost378365

                X DESCRIBES HIMSELF - Stop masquerading as if you have the clubs interest at heart, you are a fraud, always was and always will be in any and every thing that you present...

                Comment

                • #9
                  X, You seriously have time to read that?? To be honest, I tried... and failed miserably...
                  Peter R

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Peter R View Post
                    X, You seriously have time to read that?? To be honest, I tried... and failed miserably...
                    I followed that guy (Tomkins) about 2 years of my time when he was on Liverpoolfc.tv (the official website) and realised after about 6 months that he was a rafaist. His true colors came to light when Rafa was sacked (when he quit I believe). Half the crap you hear from X about Rafa, KD, "two cups" and all that other stupidness etc. comes straight out of Tomkins pea-brain. For some reason, this joker is highly regarded by X.
                    "H.L & Brick .....mi deh pan di wagon (Man City)" - X_____ http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/forum1/showthread.php?p=378365&highlight=City+Liverpool#p ost378365

                    X DESCRIBES HIMSELF - Stop masquerading as if you have the clubs interest at heart, you are a fraud, always was and always will be in any and every thing that you present...

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      I couldn't make heads nor tails of the index he's talking about... my impression is that it's pretty arbitrary. I just didn't have the energy to decipher what he was saying.
                      Peter R

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        No not excited but I give him the same chance that I gave to Andy Carroll.

                        Nobody know if this guy is going to succeed or not.

                        Common sense tell me if you have 40 million and you spend 4 million on a backup striker who is a England international and is rugged and play in a system close to yours, something tell me you can get 10 goals for the season. And you still have 36 million to buy defensive and midfield coverage.

                        I understand Liverpool also made a 10 million purchase yesterday.
                        • Don't let negative things break you, instead let it be your strength, your reason for growth. Life is for living and I won't spend my life feeling cheated and downtrodden.

                        Comment

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