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When my editors asked me to write about the Americans' chances of winning the World Cup, I felt I should check in. I thought I'd read it wrong. See, the question this time around isn't whether the Yanks can win the Cup -- the question is if this bunch can get out of their group.
That's not going to sit well with the diehards and dreamers who correctly surmise that this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance for the Americans. They have been gifted their easiest group draw ever and are playing on neutral ground (since they cannot win in Europe, that's a must). The last time they had a combo like this -- in 2002 -- the Americans went all the way to the quarterfinals. Why can't the same be true this time?
Because the Americans are an average side. Not good, not bad -- average. There's no shame in this -- the fact that the U.S. has come far enough to experience what every other team in the world goes through is a triumph in and of itself. But that's not going to help come June.
The truth is that the Americans aren't good enough to win the Cup. Among the other truths is that England is among the favorites, Slovenia is exactly the type of Eastern European team the USA historically struggles against, and Algeria can't be dismissed. In a group where you need at minimum four points, this looks like a tall order for the Yanks.
Why aren't they good enough? The U.S. has problems with tactics, talent and depth. Also, through no fault of their own, the Americans have conceded the biggest advantage they once had.
That advantage was stealth. The Americans are no longer flying under the radar. People know them, and pay attention to them. Their best players take the field -- or, too often, the bench -- each week in Europe, so other countries have lots and lots of tape to scout (and despite what the English media tell you each week, people started taking the Americans as a serious threat right after they KO'd Portugal in 2002). Again, this is a sign of growth. It's a good thing. It's just not a good thing right now.
Every once in a while, of course, foreign complacency sets in. You saw that last summer against Spain (don't think Fabio Capello is going to show his guys that one? Think again). But American fans have a selective memory as well. Yeah, the USA got to the finals last summer, albeit in a friendly tournament. That's great. But they also got a lot of help after playing two dreadful games when Italy gave up three goals to punt them into the semis. If this seems like a pattern to you, you're not mistaken. In 2002, the U.S. got a lot of help to get into the knockout round from South Korea; people always forget about that American howler against Poland.
In truth, the real meaningful result at the Confederations Cup, and the one more fans should be paying attention to, was that 3-2 loss to Brazil. That was a game that showed the USA works hard, and can take advantage of you -- but lacks the skills and international experience needed to close out big games.
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That lack of that knowledge is a killer, and the finger has to be pointed at the coaching staff. Manager Bob Bradley has not demonstrated he's capable of doing anything more than pointing the guys in the direction of the field and wishing them the best. The team has proven incapable of adjusting under pressure, and seems to only employ one set of tactics -- work hard, and play the full 90 minutes. That's more of an ethos than a game plan, however, and it can be exposed pretty quickly.
Let's talk talent. The U.S. does have three field players who could start regularly on top-level teams. Those men are Landon Donovan, Michael Bradley and Clint Dempsey. The U.S. also has three very good goalkeepers to choose from, and even though the best one's at home in Birmingham, both Marcus Hahnemann and Tim Howard enjoyed good seasons. That's four positions capably filled.
What about the other seven? That's the rub. Most of the guys who would slot in either had miserable years, are untested, or are coming off injuries. We believe a couple of them could be pretty good -- Jay DeMerit and Oguchi Onyewu -- but given a lack of full-fitness and playing time, it's hard to be certain how either of them will fare.
A number of men that the Americans will have to rely on had miserable years. Of course, Onyewu and DeMerit are in that group, alongside DaMarcus Beasley (dropped by Rangers), Jozy Altidore (sent packing by Hull), Jonathan Spector (miserable season, miserable team), Stuart Holden (injury) and Maurice Edu (injury). Charlie Davies, so inspirational in qualifying, didn't make it after failing to fully heal from a car crash.
That's a good number of key players we just talked about, and the U.S. doesn't have the depth to cover them. The choices -- Clarence Goodson, Jonathan Bornstein, Robbie Findley -- are unappealing. But that's what the Americans and the coaching staff have to work with.
Finally, history is against the Americans. They do play better on neutral ground, but they also play in a frustrating pattern at Cups: one good game, one bad game, one mediocre game. Sometimes (1994, 2002) that's enough to go through. Other times (1998, 2006) it's not.
Bottom line is that all the signs point to the Yanks struggling to get to the knockout stage. They can make the round of 16. But for now, dreams of hoisting the Cup seem set to remain just that.
-- Jamie Trecker
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