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Bueno, on Soccer: Nothing ever changes in CONCACAF
10:00 PM PDT on Monday, September 8, 2008
By LUIS BUENO
Special to The Press-Enterprise
With the 2010 World Cup less than two years away, qualifying now is in full swing around the planet. While there was plenty of intrigue in Europe and Africa, the same cannot be said for CONCACAF, where the cream that rose to the top a long time ago remains on top.
The U. S., Mexico and Costa Rica have won both their respective World Cup qualifiers and are in prime position entering Wednesday's qualifiers, which mark the midway point of this semifinal phase.
If nothing else, perhaps these early returns will give forth to an entirely different qualification system for 2014 and beyond. At the very least, it's simply an affirmation of how little the power pendulum swings in North and Central America and the Caribbean.
Hex to Hex
In the semifinal phase, three four-team groups will produce two teams apiece for next year's final six-team Hexagonal, from which three teams will qualify directly to the World Cup. With a third of the games complete, the United States, Mexico and Costa Rica hold commanding advantages in their respective groups.
With home games for the U. S. and Mexico and a lightweight opponent for Costa Rica (the Ticos visit Haiti), the region's three best teams will each take one giant step toward qualifying for the Hexagonal.
Trinidad & Tobago, which plays the U. S. on Wednesday in Chicago, is in second place in Group One with four points. Although Trinidad's challenge is tough, the Soca Warriors will play two of their final three qualifiers at home.
Should Trinidad join the three group winners in next year's Hexagonal, it would mark the third consecutive time the four nations will have reached the last qualifying stage. The other participants are usually interchangeable parts. Honduras -- a middle-of-the-pack Central American nation -- and El Salvador -- a Central American pushover -- are in line to fill out the hex. Last time around, Guatemala played the role of the middle-of-the-pack nation while Panama served as the pushovers. In 2001, it was Honduras and Jamaica.
Few Signs of Progress
As a whole, CONCACAF is a weak soccer region. While other confederations see teams rise and fall, the gap between the top three and the bottom of CONCACAF is apparently one nation -- Trinidad & Tobago. Trinidad is not in the region's upper crust, but the Caribbean nation could separate itself from the pack by advancing to its third consecutive Hexagonal.
The soccer poor nations remain without footballing funds and are perennially deceptive. Canada is seemingly a nation on the cusp of success, but the Canadians have been on the cusp for quite some time now. Canada hasn't reached a Hexagonal since 1997. Despite talented players on its roster such as MLS stars Dwayne De Rosario and Pat Onstad as well as talented European-based players such as Julian De Guzman (Deportivo La Coruna) and Rob Friend (Borrusia Moenchengladbach), Canada consistently struggles in CONCACAF.
Honduras is also usually a flavor-of-the-month. Like Canada, Honduras counts on some notable talent, such as David Suazo, of Benfica. And like Canada, Honduras struggles. Each nation has one World Cup appearance -- Honduras in 1982, Canada four years later -- and each nation will struggle to make a second.
Meanwhile, Guatemala and Jamaica are two nations whose quality of soccer continues to spiral as each nation finds the going difficult in this region.
And those nations are actually considered challenging opponents in CONCACAF.
Road Struggles?
U. S. national team coaches and players usually say that playing away matches in the region is very difficult. While the trip to places such as Guatemala City or San Pedro Sula, Honduras, may indeed be physically taxing, road games in the region generally are not.
In qualifying for the previous two World Cups, the United States holds a 6-5-6 record in road matches. However, all five road losses were to either Mexico or Costa Rica. The U. S. has not lost a road qualifier to a team that isn't Mexico or Costa Rica since a 2-1 loss at Canada in 1980.
Thus, it seems that only matches in Mexico and Costa Rica are difficult for the United States. The U. S. already has two wins in two road games during the qualification cycle and a third in the semifinal phase.
Next year, the final six should look something like this: U. S., Mexico, Costa Rica, Trinidad, Honduras, El Salvador.
If that ends up happening, expect the U. S., Mexico and Costa Rica to advance to the World Cup, with Trinidad possibly to capture fourth place and compete in a playoff with a team from South America to reach the World Cup.
In other words, expect a repeat of 2005.
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