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Looking at the CONCACAF format for qualifying, Guatemala will be one of the thirteen teams that do not have to play in the first round. They will also be one of the twelve seeded teams for the second round. As such, they should get to the third round where the twelve remaining teams will get divided into three groups of four.
In the third round, the three number one seeds are the U.S., Mexico, and Costa Rica. While Guatemala is technically a number four seed (currently 10th overall in CONCACAF) for the third round, all three of the number three seeds (Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti) are Carribean teams that appear to be overranked. Unless Guatemala has the worst luck in the draw, it should have a fighting chance to finish in the top two in its group and make it to the fourth round.
In the fourth round, the U.S. and Mexico are solid favorites to take the top two slots. Costa Rica will be considered the most likely team to take the third automatic bid. However, if Guatemala makes it to the final round, they would have a legitimate chance to finish either third (and get the automatic bid) or fourth (and have to play the fifth place team from CONMEBOL -- South America). While the South American team will be favored to win that playoff, anything can happen in a two-game match (as shown by Australia beating the South American team to make world cup 2006).
In short, Guatemala starts the process as one of the credible "upset" prediction to make the world cup. They are not one of the favorites, but they are also not a team that is a "long-shot." I would put them in the same general category as Trinidad, Honduras, and Panama. All four of these teams will probably be needing the right result in the last match of the third round to advance to the fourth round. Whichever three make it to the fourth round will have a chance to finish ahead of Costa Rica for the third automatic slot, and one of them will either get the third spot or the fourth spot.
One cautionary note about the format needs to be made. Somehow El Salvador has slipped out of the top 12 teams. That means that some seeded team will be facing them in the second round. My own opinion is that El Salvador is not the 20th team in CONCACAF. Whomever has the misfortune of drawing El Salvador is going to have a tough second round. The only other team that should pose a problem to the seeds in the second round would be St. Vincent (the number 13 team). Obviously, at this stage, it is difficult to project the outcome of qualifications because the draw for the pairings is still five weeks away.
2 days ago
Looking at the CONCACAF format for qualifying, Guatemala will be one of the thirteen teams that do not have to play in the first round. They will also be one of the twelve seeded teams for the second round. As such, they should get to the third round where the twelve remaining teams will get divided into three groups of four.
In the third round, the three number one seeds are the U.S., Mexico, and Costa Rica. While Guatemala is technically a number four seed (currently 10th overall in CONCACAF) for the third round, all three of the number three seeds (Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti) are Carribean teams that appear to be overranked. Unless Guatemala has the worst luck in the draw, it should have a fighting chance to finish in the top two in its group and make it to the fourth round.
In the fourth round, the U.S. and Mexico are solid favorites to take the top two slots. Costa Rica will be considered the most likely team to take the third automatic bid. However, if Guatemala makes it to the final round, they would have a legitimate chance to finish either third (and get the automatic bid) or fourth (and have to play the fifth place team from CONMEBOL -- South America). While the South American team will be favored to win that playoff, anything can happen in a two-game match (as shown by Australia beating the South American team to make world cup 2006).
In short, Guatemala starts the process as one of the credible "upset" prediction to make the world cup. They are not one of the favorites, but they are also not a team that is a "long-shot." I would put them in the same general category as Trinidad, Honduras, and Panama. All four of these teams will probably be needing the right result in the last match of the third round to advance to the fourth round. Whichever three make it to the fourth round will have a chance to finish ahead of Costa Rica for the third automatic slot, and one of them will either get the third spot or the fourth spot.
One cautionary note about the format needs to be made. Somehow El Salvador has slipped out of the top 12 teams. That means that some seeded team will be facing them in the second round. My own opinion is that El Salvador is not the 20th team in CONCACAF. Whomever has the misfortune of drawing El Salvador is going to have a tough second round. The only other team that should pose a problem to the seeds in the second round would be St. Vincent (the number 13 team). Obviously, at this stage, it is difficult to project the outcome of qualifications because the draw for the pairings is still five weeks away.
2 days ago
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