The road to eight golds and the winner of the Gold title

[Stonigut]

First to eight might do it. That would require a whole lot of hard work and a ton of luck.

On attack
3 & 4: Our road to eight has to be bolt in 200, ET in 200, need a ton of luck on second one, some luck on first.65% and 15% chance.

5: W4*100 that is looking pretty possible. 55% chance
6: Tons of luck needed on men's 4*100 with right order, Carter to asafa to Dwyer to bolt. 25%
7: 110h men need a ton of things to happen for this to be possible, outside shot. 15% chance
8. 4*400 women, all round strength of team with a little courage could make it happen Day to Novlene to McPherson to Jackson. 30% chance.
9. Tiny chance for Spencer, has not shown she have belly for big race. 5% chance.
10. Discuss with Chad Wright, 1% chance.
11. 4*400 men; snowflake at top of blue mountain peak in a wicked cold front!!! Very tiny chance.

On defense
Shaunae miller keeps US off board in 400, absolutely necessary.
One Jamaican keep US off winners circle in 110h men.
Keep US off winners circle on men's 400, that may well happen.
TNT or jam men catch fire in 4*400 somebody must keep US out of #1 slot.will be touch they have the runners.
If some combination of those happen, if ja wins 8, keep US off board and Ethiopia keeps Kenya honest and Russia is held in check there is a path to win.

[Islandman]

Stoni, some of your percentages look kinda conservative to me.

I would give ET more than a 15% chance, more like 45%.
W 4*100 I would put at about 65%
W 4*400 I am feeling more optimistic about. Like you say I think courage and grit will play a big part. US don't look that strong to me.

Very tall order for sure. We will probably have one more shot at it in 2017 before we have to regroup.

[Stonigut]

Et just because she really has never seen this level before, but you are right based on what we have seen may be higher.can't believe a Kenyan won the 400h.

[Gamma]

so the percentage is GUESS?!!

[Stonigut]

Yeah pure guesswork, it is my attempt at rough odds making so 50% is 1-1 very good or 20% is 4-1 odds, pretty good shot etc, etc.

[Stonigut]

Take out #9 chance, no belly fi true, good run by Russel!!

[Islandman]

They said she hit a hurdle early and it thrrew her off. I haven;t watch the race yet myself.

[Gamma]

yes she did but even before that she did not look in the race.

[Historian]

I Agree, Except....

US don't look that strong to me.

I’man, I agree with everything you said except for the statement quoted above. When has the USA not had a strong team in the women’s mile relay? Plus, this time around they have at least two completely fresh legs.

[Islandman]

Meaning less strong compared to JA than I thought they would be. They are not invincible this time.

[Stonigut]

Just one more gold!!!!!!!!!!!! Need one as Kenya is done on seven and we are on seven, tall order for mens 4*400

[Gamma]

Very tall BUT POSSIBLE!

[Peter R]

It almost happened if Francis didn't make his play so soon... good run still from a team that was considered to be in the running..

[Stonigut]

Chambers messed it up, we just needed the first three to hand it off inside 5 meters and let Javon try but ten meters plus just not possible.

Well congrats to Kenya, this could have been our crowning achievement, we came so close!!!!!!!!!!!


Suh it go, reload and come again. one more champs with Bolt and SAFP may be our last chance.

[Gamma]

He had to go out hard if the gold was to be in play. IMHO it was a gold or bust attitude which I don't fault! That is how they must think