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**Don1** · August 1, 2009, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by Historian View Post

Personal Prediction #1: Women’s 200-meter Race

This is the first in a series of 2009 IAAF World Championships predictions that I will be making over the next week or so. All relevant comments are most certainly welcome

.

Gold: Allyson Felix (USA)
Silver: Veronica Campbell-Brown (Jam)
Bronze: Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie (Bah)

Yesterday’s performance by Allyson Felix was, without question, a fantastic run in every sense of the word! Not only is it the second fastest race of her career (her 21.81 in 2007 at the IAAF World Championships in Osaka is her fastest), but it is also the third fastest 200-meter run by a woman since the start of this century!! (See fastest times list for this decade towards the bottom of this post.)

Stockholm Super Grand Prix, July 31, 2009
Results: Women’s 200-meter race
WR: 21.34 Florence Griffith-Joyner (1988)
SR: 22.00 Sherone Simpson (2006)
Wind: 1.3 m/s

Rank Name Nat Time
1 Allyson Felix (USA) 21.88 SR
2 Debbie Ferguson (BAH) 22.23
3 Kerron Stewart (JAM) 22.72
4 Marshevet Hooker (USA) 22.84
5 Laverne Jones (ISV) 23.15
6 Cydonie Mothersill (CAY) 23.27
7 Alexandria Anderson (USA) 23.32
8 Yuliya Chermoshanskaya (RUS) 23.70

Putting Allyson’s performance into perspective, let’s compare it with the best 200-meter times since the start of this 21st century:

Fastest 200-meter Times: 2000-2009
21.74 Veronica Campbell-Brown (August 21, 2008 Beijing)
21.81 Allyson Felix (August 31, 2007 Osaka)
21.88 Allyson Felix (July 31, 2009 Stockholm)
21.93 Allyson Felix (August 21, 2008 Beijing)
21.94 Veronica Campbell-Brown (June 29, 2008 Kingston)
21.94 Marion Jones (July 23, 2000 Sacramento)
21.98 Veronica Campbell-Brown (July 19, 2008 Barcelona)
21.99 Kerron Stewart (June 29, 2008 Kingston)

Allyson’s performance also signals good news for the USA 4x400-meter race, which I expect the USA women to again win.

In the case of the steadily improving Bahamian former Golden Girl Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie, yesterday’s outstanding run was her third fastest 200-meter time ever (22.19 in 1999; 22.20 in 2002; 22.23 in 2009).

With both Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie and Veronica Campbell-Brown most likely running both the 100-meter and 200-meter races, that paves the way for a “fresh” Allyson to stamp her authority in the upcoming 200-meter finals in Berlin.

Not a bad prediction... you have played it safe and simply gone with the pre WC form charts in predicting the outcome.

For me I wait to see the prelims... then hazard a guess for the finals... there being so many imponderables and uncertainties...........

**Karl** · August 1, 2009, 10:31 AM

Pre-World's eliminations i.e. heats, etc. - 200M Women

1. VC
2. Felix
3. Stewart

All to go under 22.00 secs.
VC, even in light of twice interupted training, is clearly faster than Allyson. We need to look no further than all the 100M races Allyson has done in the Grand Prix meets. Clearly she was working on her start and attempting to improve her speed.

Her best start and fastest 100M in the last few months has had her running somewhere in the neighbourhood of 11.10+sec. She is obviously strong and in her best form but at a disadvantage against VC where speed is concerned.

VC has been working on her start also. She is still being left in the blocks in her 100M...but her 'head space' is in a different place when it comes to the 200M. She shall gain a bullet start, run a brilliant curve, get into the straight 3 meters clear of the field, possible 4-5 meters up on Allyson. VC's poise, determination and strength should take her to the tape in first place. VC gets her individual World Championship Gold at last!

A determined Kerron Stewart will hang on to third. Expect Sheron to come into the straight 2nd behind VC and thus before Allyson. Allyson should overtake the battling Kerron.

**Historian** · August 1, 2009, 10:53 AM

Can't Disagree With You

Originally posted by Don1 View Post

Not a bad prediction... you have played it safe and simply gone with the pre WC form charts in predicting the outcome.

For me I wait to see the prelims... then hazard a guess for the finals... there being so many imponderables and uncertainties...........

Very good point, Don1 .

The truth is, though, that in me being presumptous enough to attempt a prediction at this still early stage (we still have two weeks to go), I had no choice but to use the form that I’m presently seeing, along with whatever relevant statistics from the recent past that I have available.

For example, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact that Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie is steadily improving her times in the few weeks before Berlin. There’s no doubt that she’s peaking nicely, and this combined with her many years of experience at the IAAF World Championships (the first time I saw her on the tracks was with the Bahamas’ 4x100-meter relay team at the 1995 IAAF World Championships in Gothenburg, Sweden) will most likely have taught her valuable lessons in running the rounds. In addition, it’s hard to ignore the fact that she’s the gold medalist in the 200-meter from the 2001 IAAF World Championships as well as bronze medalist in this event at the 2004 Olympic Games. She’s bringing a wealth of experience, in addition to a rapidly improving form, to the Berlin championships.

But I certainly agree with your suggestion about the IAAF World Championships preliminaries and their results because, like you correctly said, “there are so many imponderables and uncertainties.” And there are, of course, certainly many examples in recent times to support your caution.

(By the way, I feel somewhat compelled to confess at this point that I actually lost a small bet on last year’s women’s 400-meter race at the Beijing Olympics! There had been absolutely no question in my mind that Sanya Richards would have easily won that race, and a bronze medal didn’t even enter my thinking at any point prior to that race.)

**Historian** · August 1, 2009, 11:17 AM

Re: Kerron, VCB, Allyson

Originally posted by Karl View Post

1. VC
2. Felix
3. Stewart

All to go under 22.00 secs.

A determined Kerron Stewart will hang on to third. Expect Sheron to come into the straight 2nd behind VC and thus before Allyson. Allyson should overtake the battling Kerron.

Karl: Kerron Stewart will NOT be competing in the 200-meter race. She’s not entered for that event (she did not contest it at the Jamaica trials), so the only events we’re likely to see her in are the 100-meter dash and the 4x100-meter relay. (I’m not even sure why Kerron saw it necessary to run the 200-meter yesterday.)

You can archive this comment of mine now for future reference: Allyson Felix at this stage is clearly ahead of Veronica Campbell-Brown in her 200-meter development. We’ve not exactly had a lot of 200-meter races this year, but Veronica’s form in both the 100-meter and 200-meter races hasn’t left me overly enthusiastic about her chances for gold in either event! While I cannot remember my thoughts for Helsinki 2005, in 2007 there was no doubt in my mind that Allyson would have won. In 2009, again there is absolutely no doubt in my mind!

To make matters worse, Veronica seems intent on defending her championship in the 100-meter dash and then running the 200. This is not likely to work this time around (although it did in 2004)! I’ve always felt that her failure to make Jamaica’s 100-meter team last year was a blessing in disguise, as there was just no way, in my opinion, that Veronica was going to run four rounds of 100-meter races and three rounds of 200 meters before returning and running the finals in the amazing 21.74 seconds (seventh fastest women’s 200-meter time in history) that she did!!

Allyson will not be contesting any event in Berlin before she runs the 200-meter race. Veronica’s best bet in Berlin is to forget about the 100-meter dash, which she might not win, and concentrate on the 200 where I strongly believe she has a slightly better chance of getting the gold.

Certainly a healthy and fully fit Veronica is not likely to beat a fully fit Shelly-Ann Fraser nor a fit and healthy Kerron Stewart in the 100-meter dash! For one, Veronica’s start continues to be awful, while Shelly-Ann is the exact opposite. Incidentally, that defeat that Veronica suffered at last year’s national qualifiers for the Beijing Olympic Games saw Veronica running the second fastest time of her career, and that was good enough only for fourth!! There is no doubt that the guard is changing in Jamaica as far as women’s sprinting is concerned.

**Karl** · August 1, 2009, 11:53 AM

Pre-World's eliminations i.e. heats, etc. - 200M Women

Originally posted by Historian View Post

Karl: Kerron Stewart will NOT be competing in the 200-meter race. She’s not entered for that event (she did not contest it at the Jamaica trials), so the only events we’re likely to see her in are the 100-meter dash and the 4x100-meter relay. (I’m not even sure why Kerron saw it necessary to run the 200-meter yesterday.)

A-OK!
Scratch Kerron from my 200M prediction.

1. VC
2. Allyson Felix

You can archive this comment of mine now for future reference: Allyson Felix at this stage is clearly ahead of Veronica Campbell-Brown in her 200-meter development. We’ve not exactly had a lot of 200-meter races this year, but Veronica’s form in both the 100-meter and 200-meter races hasn’t left me overly enthusiastic about her chances for gold in either event! While I cannot remember my thoughts for Helsinki 2005, in 2007 there was no doubt in my mind that Allyson would have won. In 2009, again there is absolutely no doubt in my mind!

It is done by the 'site'.

To make matters worse, Veronica seems intent on defending her championship in the 100-meter dash and then running the 200. This is not likely to work this time around (although it did in 2004)! I’ve always felt that her failure to make Jamaica’s 100-meter team last year was a blessing in disguise, as there was just no way, in my opinion, that Veronica was going to run four rounds of 100-meter races and three rounds of 200 meters before returning and running the finals in the amazing 21.74 seconds (seventh fastest women’s 200-meter time in history) that she did!!

Allyson will not be contesting any event in Berlin before she runs the 200-meter race. Veronica’s best bet in Berlin is to forget about the 100-meter dash, which she might not win, and concentrate on the 200 where I strongly believe she has a slightly better chance of getting the gold.

Certainly a healthy and fully fit Veronica is not likely to beat a fully fit Shelly-Ann Fraser nor a fit and healthy Kerron Stewart in the 100-meter dash! For one, Veronica’s start continues to be awful, while Shelly-Ann is the exact opposite. Incidentally, that defeat that Veronica suffered at last year’s national qualifiers for the Beijing Olympic Games saw Veronica running the second fastest time of her career, and that was good enough only for fourth!! There is no doubt that the guard is changing in Jamaica as far as women’s sprinting is concerned.

That matter of doubling in the 100M/200M by Olympic class athletes strong enough and quick enough to be on or near top of the world in those events being 'burnt out' as the rounds at these meets go on make for good writing...but I have always believed, is pure 'bunkim'.

Jesse Owens did not burn out!

DQ did not burn out!

Carl Lewis did not burn out!

Frankie Fredricks did not burn out!

Tyson Gay and Usain Bolt

;

Willma Rudolph did not burn out!

Edith McGuirre did not burn out

Merlene Ottey

Gail Devers

Juilette Cuthbert

...and VC did not burn out in any of her doubles!

---------------

Even at my 'half-arsed so-so fit', 'coaches never had a clue what they were telling us and asking us to do' schoolboy days I did not burn out. I just was not good enough or in any type fitness to challenge the top boys.

...burn out what?

*These athletes are finely tuned athletes and after careful managing of rest, training and other supporting factors...they are ready to produce 'best performances' in a 16 - 24 hours turn around period.

VC is just not the very best in the world at 100M. If all the athletes in the finals get their best starts, VC being there, she shall be beaten. Has nothing to do with being burnt out or tired. It has to do with other being 'better on the day'.

If all the athletes in the 200M get their 'best' start...VC wins! She is just the best at this time.

We cannot predict guessing she shall be hurt taking into considerationshe is coming off a recent injury (i.e. that 100M so-called cramp). I am based on the running we have seen in the Grand Prix meets that all the athletes are fully fit and in best form.

VC has been running the 100M on or around 10.88+ through 11.05. That is her top fitness times. I think when put against what I think is her PB of 10.85. She is right there!

You rightly reported that she ran on or about her top 'pre-big world' time at the Jamaica trials. ...so again when coupled with her 100M times that suggests she is within striking distance of her 21.74.

Frankly I do not see why see cannot give us 21.50 or thereabouts in the Worlds.

VC wins! ...and collects her individual World GOLD to put along those other trophies in her trophy case.

In that 200M Felix is not as quick over the 1st 100M and VC is just as strong her over the final 100M. VC leads out of the turn and keeps ahead to the 'tape'!

*If that burn out theory held true, how is it these guys and gals can return and literally 'burn up the track'...produce even considering those running legs with running starts...literally run 'miles' faster in the relays? Shouldn't they, when allowance is made for the running starts, be producing legs that when compared to their earlier races are appreciable slower?

We know it is most often appreciably faster running!...better performances. In fact, often the legs are amazingly faster runs!

Melene Ottey is a prime example - Olympic and World meet...time after time it was claimed she could not run the rounds...and come the relays, more often than not she blazed!

Aside: My take on Merlene was she had a problem retaining that 'mental focus' when the individual finals of these 'big meets' came around. ...and then there were -
1. the matter of the juiced athletes she lost to;
2. the occasion(s), I think, the officials 'erred'.

Anyway - We'll see, what we shall see!
Respek!

**Sickko** · August 1, 2009, 12:34 PM

I cant use these one run things as a guide..let me see how she executes after two races in one day and coming back the next day.

My own thinking is that VCB will make the finals of the 100m and hoping for a medal of some colour in the Jamaica 1-2-3 finish and those four races will get her ready for the 200m

**Karl** · August 1, 2009, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Sickko View Post

I cant use these one run things as a guide..let me see how she executes after two races in one day and coming back the next day.

My own thinking is that VCB will make the finals of the 100m and hoping for a medal of some colour in the Jamaica 1-2-3 finish and those four races will get her ready for the 200m

I am thinking you are right. The 100M race will help VC's preparation for the 200M!

..and I would be happy if she gets a 100M medal of any colour!

**Don1** · August 1, 2009, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Historian View Post

Very good point, Don1 .

The truth is, though, that in me being presumptous enough to attempt a prediction at this still early stage (we still have two weeks to go), I had no choice but to use the form that I’m presently seeing, along with whatever relevant statistics from the recent past that I have available.

For example, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact that Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie is steadily improving her times in the few weeks before Berlin. There’s no doubt that she’s peaking nicely, and this combined with her many years of experience at the IAAF World Championships (the first time I saw her on the tracks was with the Bahamas’ 4x100-meter relay team at the 1995 IAAF World Championships in Gothenburg, Sweden) will most likely have taught her valuable lessons in running the rounds. In addition, it’s hard to ignore the fact that she’s the gold medalist in the 200-meter from the 2001 IAAF World Championships as well as bronze medalist in this event at the 2004 Olympic Games. She’s bringing a wealth of experience, in addition to a rapidly improving form, to the Berlin championships.

But I certainly agree with your suggestion about the IAAF World Championships preliminaries and their results because, like you correctly said, “there are so many imponderables and uncertainties.” And there are, of course, certainly many examples in recent times to support your caution.

(By the way, I feel somewhat compelled to confess at this point that I actually lost a small bet on last year’s women’s 400-meter race at the Beijing Olympics! There had been absolutely no question in my mind that Sanya Richards would have easily won that race, and a bronze medal didn’t even enter my thinking at any point prior to that race.)

ok boss...... understood. Sound reasoning.

**Don1** · August 1, 2009, 03:04 PM

Incidentally, that defeat that Veronica suffered at last year’s national qualifiers for the Beijing Olympic Games saw Veronica running the second fastest time of her career, and that was good enough only for fourth!! There is no doubt that the guard is changing in Jamaica as far as women’s sprinting is concerned.

[/QUOTE]

Insightful comments generally in your post.

Except to say that I don't think VC is ready for a complete takeover in Jamaican female sprinting from the excellent up and comers SAF, KS and SS.

The guard is definitely changing in the 100m but clearly NOT in the 200m.

VC still reigns supreme in the 200m as far as Jamaican females are concerned... and is still our finest all around female sprinter now and arguably has supplanted Merlene as our finest ever.

Just my take.

**Historian** · August 1, 2009, 06:47 PM

What can I say (lol)?

Originally posted by Don1

Insightful comments generally in your post.

Except to say that I don't think VC is ready for a complete takeover in Jamaican female sprinting from the excellent up and comers SAF, KS and SS.

The guard is definitely changing in the 100m but clearly NOT in the 200m.

VC still reigns supreme in the 200m as far as Jamaican females are concerned... and is still our finest all around female sprinter now and arguably has supplanted Merlene as our finest ever.

Just my take.

Well, what can I say? For the second time today, Don1, I’m forced to agree with you. There is no question that, as you stated it, “the guard is definitely changing in the 100m but clearly not in the 200m.”

Likewise, Veronica Campbell-Brown is also the person who I recognize as our “finest all around female sprinter.” Based on her incredible achievements, Veronica has also “arguably supplanted Merlene as our finest ever,” as you again correctly (in my view) described it. In fact, I wonder how many track and field fans realize that Veronica Campbell-Brown is the ONLY athlete on the planet, man or woman, who has won a gold medal at EVERY global meet that exists??!

Veronica is truly an exceptional athlete, and I’m thankful that she is a Jamaican in every sense of the term

!

**Don1** · August 2, 2009, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by Historian View Post

Well, what can I say? For the second time today, Don1, I’m forced to agree with you. There is no question that, as you stated it, “the guard is definitely changing in the 100m but clearly not in the 200m.”

Likewise, Veronica Campbell-Brown is also the person who I recognize as our “finest all around female sprinter.” Based on her incredible achievements, Veronica has also “arguably supplanted Merlene as our finest ever,” as you again correctly (in my view) described it. In fact, I wonder how many track and field fans realize that Veronica Campbell-Brown is the ONLY athlete on the planet, man or woman, who has won a gold medal at EVERY global meet that exists??!

Veronica is truly an exceptional athlete, and I’m thankful that she is a Jamaican in every sense of the term

!

nice.

**Karl** · August 16, 2009, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by Historian View Post

Personal Prediction #1: Women’s 200-meter Race

This is the first in a series of 2009 IAAF World Championships predictions that I will be making over the next week or so. All relevant comments are most certainly welcome

.

Gold: Allyson Felix (USA)
Silver: Veronica Campbell-Brown (Jam)
Bronze: Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie (Bah)

Yesterday’s performance by Allyson Felix was, without question, a fantastic run in every sense of the word! Not only is it the second fastest race of her career (her 21.81 in 2007 at the IAAF World Championships in Osaka is her fastest), but it is also the third fastest 200-meter run by a woman since the start of this century!! (See fastest times list for this decade towards the bottom of this post.)

Stockholm Super Grand Prix, July 31, 2009
Results: Women’s 200-meter race
WR: 21.34 Florence Griffith-Joyner (1988)
SR: 22.00 Sherone Simpson (2006)
Wind: 1.3 m/s

Rank Name Nat Time
1 Allyson Felix (USA) 21.88 SR
2 Debbie Ferguson (BAH) 22.23
3 Kerron Stewart (JAM) 22.72
4 Marshevet Hooker (USA) 22.84
5 Laverne Jones (ISV) 23.15
6 Cydonie Mothersill (CAY) 23.27
7 Alexandria Anderson (USA) 23.32
8 Yuliya Chermoshanskaya (RUS) 23.70

Putting Allyson’s performance into perspective, let’s compare it with the best 200-meter times since the start of this 21st century:

Fastest 200-meter Times: 2000-2009
21.74 Veronica Campbell-Brown (August 21, 2008 Beijing)
21.81 Allyson Felix (August 31, 2007 Osaka)
21.88 Allyson Felix (July 31, 2009 Stockholm)
21.93 Allyson Felix (August 21, 2008 Beijing)
21.94 Veronica Campbell-Brown (June 29, 2008 Kingston)
21.94 Marion Jones (July 23, 2000 Sacramento)
21.98 Veronica Campbell-Brown (July 19, 2008 Barcelona)
21.99 Kerron Stewart (June 29, 2008 Kingston)

Allyson’s performance also signals good news for the USA 4x400-meter race, which I expect the USA women to again win.

In the case of the steadily improving Bahamian former Golden Girl Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie, yesterday’s outstanding run was her third fastest 200-meter time ever (22.19 in 1999; 22.20 in 2002; 22.23 in 2009).

With both Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie and Veronica Campbell-Brown most likely running both the 100-meter and 200-meter races, that paves the way for a “fresh” Allyson to stamp her authority in the upcoming 200-meter finals in Berlin.

Still time to hedge the prediction with - If VCB does not run into form during this meet Allyson Felix wins!

Aside: VCB's 10.99 secs and the manner of her doing same...makes it LUV lacka she a run inna farm?

Yes the race has not been run yet...and... (egg on m,y face coud happen) ...but what I am seeing says...

http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/interact...sp?page=forum2

**Historian** · August 16, 2009, 05:32 PM

Nope

Originally posted by Karl View Post

Still time to hedge the prediction with - If VCB does not run into form during this meet Allyson Felix wins!

Aside: VCB's 10.99 secs and the manner of her doing same...makes it LUV lacka she a run inna farm?

Yes the race has not been run yet...and... (egg on m,y face coud happen) ...but what I am seeing says...

http://www.reggaeboyzsc.com/interact...sp?page=forum2

This prediction is accurate, boss, as you’ll see

.

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