My Olympic Games Predictions!

[Historian]

The Caribbean at the Beijing Olympic Games
My Medal Predictions
Compiled and Written by Historian

The four Caribbean countries likely to win any type of medals at the Beijing Olympic Games, in my opinion, are Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Trinidad & Tobago.

Below are my personal predictions.

Cuba

While Jamaica’s participation in the summer Olympic Games began in 1948, Cuba made its first entrance almost half a century earlier in the year 1900. Cuba has traditionally been the Caribbean heavyweight at the Olympic Games with its legendary boxers (10 will be heading for Beijing), baseball players, field events athletes, and volleyball players.

Although Cuba is by no means as famous as Jamaica is in the sprint events, occasionally Cuban athletes have won hurdles and sprint and middle distance events at the Olympics. The most famous Cuban track athlete is, of course, the legendary Alberto Juantorena, the only athlete in history to have won both the 400-meter and 800-meter events at one Olympic Games (he did this at the 1976 Olympic Games in Montreal).

Looking down the road at Beijing, from my perspective, Dayron Robles, Osleidys Menendez and Yargelis Savigne stand the best chance of bringing home track and field gold medals for Cuba.

Potential Cuban medalists
Dayron Robles: 110-meter hurdles (world record holder)
Yargelis Savigne: triple jump (2007 IAAF World champion)
Osleidys Menendez: javelin throw (world record holder; 2005 IAAF World champion)
Zulia Calatayud: 800-meter race (2005 IAAF World champion)
Yumileidi Cumbá: shot put throw (2004 Olympic Games silver medalist)
Yipsi Moreno: hammer throw (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)

Outside Chance
Yargelis Savigne: long jump
Yarelis Barrios: discus throw (2007 IAAF World bronze medalist)

The Bahamas

The Bahamas won its first Olympic Games gold medal in 1964 in Tokyo in yachting. However, it is in track and field that the Bahamas made its name as a legitimate Caribbean athletic power. Since 1964 the Bahamas has won a total of three Olympic Games gold medals.

The Bahamas Olympic Games track and field medal-winning story began at the 1992 Barcelone Olympic Games when triple jumper Frank Rutherford landed the bronze medal. Four years later, in Atlanta, that country’s women’s 4x100-meter relay team won the silver medal. The 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney marked the Bahamas’ greatest moment in the history of their participation in the Olympics when the women’s 4x100-meter relay team won the gold medal and 200-meter sprinter Pauline Davis-Thompson won the silver medal in the half-lap event. Then, in 2004, 400-meter runner Tonique Williams-Darling won the gold medal in that event, while Debbie Ferguson won the bronze medal in the 200-meter race.

The Bahamas’ best chance at any form of medal in Beijing lies in Chris Brown (400-meter race) and the men’s 4x400-meter relay team.

Potential Bahamian Medalists
Derrick Atkins: 100-meter race (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)
Christopher Brown: 400-meter race
Chandra Sturrup: 100-meter race
Men’s 4x400-meter relay team (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)

Jamaica

Jamaica’s history at the Olympic Games can be summarized as, to a great extent, one of missed opportunities and bad luck. To date, Jamaica has won a total of six gold medals during its 60-year participation at the Olympics (400-meter runner Arthur Wint in 1948, the men’s 4x400-meter relay team in 1952, Donald Quarrie in the 200-meter race in 1976, 400-meter hurdler Deon Hemmings in 1996, Veronica Campbell in the 200-meter race in 2004, and the women’s 4x100-meter relay team in 2004).

Looking ahead to Beijing, Jamaica’s best gold medal chances, in my opinion, lie with Usain Bolt, Veronica Campbell-Brown, and the women's 4x100-meter relay team.

Potential Jamaican medalists
Usain Bolt: 100-meter race (world record holder)
Usain Bolt: 200-meter race (fastest 200-meter in the world for 2008)
Asafa Powell: 100-meter race (previous world record holder)
Maurice Smith: decathlon (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)
Veronica Campbell: 200-meter race (2004 Olympic Games champion)
Novlene Williams: 400-meter race (2007 IAAF World bronze medalist)
Kerron Stewart: 100-meter race (fastest time in the world for 2008)
Kerron Stewart: 200-meter race (2007 NCAA 200-meter champion)
Brigitte Foster-Hylton: 100-meter hurdles (2005 IAAF World silver medalist)
Delloreen Ennis-London: 100-meter hurdles (2007 IAAF World bronze medalist)
Women’s Sprint Relay: 4x100-m relay (2004 Olympic Games champion)
Women’s Mile Relay: 4x400-m relay (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)
Men’s Sprint Relay: 4x100-meter relay (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)

[Assasin]

so where is Melaine?
don't write off Danny Mac either.

[Historian]

so where is Melaine?
don't write off Danny Mac either.

Uh oh! I completely forgot about Melaine Walker! Multi-talented Melaine is definitely a serious contender for a medal in the 400-meter hurdles!

I suspect that I forgot about Melaine because we've been short of outstanding 400-meter hurdlers since the days of Debbie Ann Parris and the great Deon Hemmings (in the same way that we're short of outstanding male 110-meter hurdlers).

I'll continue to reserve judgement for Danny McFarlane in the 400-meter hurdles. But anything is possible as far as Danny is concerned, and one only has to look at the 2004 Olympic Games to see why I say this. I definitely feel that Danny should run a leg on the 4x400-meter relay team, however! He more than proved himself back in our glory days of mile-relay running (the late 1990's days of Michael McDonald, Greg Haughton, Roxbert Martin and Davian Clarke).

[Jangle]

Some additions and adjustments here Mr. Historian. The Grenadian male long jumper is also a potential medalist. Our men's 4 x 100m team must start as favourites to win the gold regardless of our history of poor baton changes. Melanie Walker confirmed herself as being a strong favourite also in the 400m hurdles. I think we will also medal in the men's 4 x 400m relay, as I think they powers will bring in Bolt to run a leg, especially if he does well in the individual events. You also left out Sherone Simpson and young Frazer in 100m. The women's 100m is going to be too close to call between us and the US. I would feel a little safer with VC there, but we all know she will and i agree should not. Dorian Scott also stands a very slim chance. With those field events, a burst of energy could see an athlete surpassing his best and he has been consistently been in the top 10 since this year. Koreen Hinds also stands a chance in the distant race. With these distance races more times than not it is all about strategy. If she is able to keep up with the leading pack into the final lap, then she will stand a chance. Her performances this year has been consistent also. How could you forget Mr. Championship Danny McFarlane? He ran his best time this week and looked easy too.

[Historian]

Thanks for your comments, Jangle.

First, I did not attempt to include everyone who could conceivably medal, hence I would have included one or two other Cubans, and in the Bahamas' list I would have included Leevan Sands (triple jumper) and Donald Thomas (2007 IAAF World champion high jumper), although Thomas is nowhere near where he was last year.

Rather, my list included people who I felt most likely would medal (notice, for example, the absence of triple jumper Trecia Smith and 400-meter runner Shericka Williams).

Now, leaving out Melaine Walker was NOT deliberate; it was a major error on my part (see my response to Assasin above). Melaine, a very, very lovely young lady who it is a pleasure to chat with and who has been a super talented athlete from back in her Carifta Games days, is most definitely a “strong favourite,” as you correctly said.

I also included my comments on Danny McFarlane in my reply to Assasin above. Despite his surprise silver medal in the 400-meter hurdles in Athens, I have greater hopes for Danny in Beijing as a member of our rather weak men’s 4x400-meter relay team, where his presence is desperately needed. I hope the results of the 400-meter hurdles finals in Beijing prove me wrong!

Regarding Usain Bolt and the mile relay, I don’t share the view that he is some sort of super-human! He is only human, and so I don’t expect Bolt to run four rounds of 100-meter races (if he runs the 100-m), four rounds of 200-meter races, a 4x100-meter relay and then a 4x400-meter relay! This is not Girls & Boys Champs or the Carifta Games! Also, our men's 4x400-meter teams have weakened drastically since their peak days in 1997 at the IAAF World Championships in Athens. I watched my videotape of that 1997 finals just last night, and as I always do, I sighed.

It is hard to believe that a country that produced a super strong mile relay team as we did in 1996 and 1997 could have dwindled to this state today! Trust me, that error by Roxbert Martin when he clipped Greg Haughton's heel while passing the baton during the 4x400-meter relay finals the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games is an incident that will haunt us for many more years to come!! That was the Olympic Games when we stood the best chance of repeating 1952!!

But trust me on this: the gold medal in the men's 4x400-meter relay will go to the USA, while the silver medal will go to the Chris Brown-anchored Bahamas team. Jamaica and Great Britain will battle for the bronze medal. Write this men's 4x400-meter prediction down, and I will apologize to you on this forum if I am proven wrong during the finals in Beijing!

Looking at the 400-meter relays, I have become so disillusioned with the various versions of our men’s 4x100-meter relay performances over the past decades that I would be extremely pleasantly surprised if we won a gold medal in Beijing! In fact, I might as well tell you that the last men’s 4x100-meter relay team that I pinned any hopes on was the Llewelyn Bredwood-anchored team at the 2000 Sydney Olympic Games. The usual bad baton passing ensured that we merely got fourth place behind Cuba, Brazil and the USA.

Last year in Osaka, I was not in the least bit surprised by our performance despite all the glowing predictions! Pessimistic? Maybe, but I have been following the performances by our men's relay teams virtually all my life, and I have every reason to believe that despite the fast foot-speed, poor baton passing as usual will mess us up!

And the women? As they do in Jamaican schools and workplaces, Jamaica’s women have tended to deliver on the track when it counts, and so we see that of Jamaica’s six Olympic Games gold medals, the last three were won by our women!

Sherone Simpson in 2008 is not the same as Sherone in 2006, and while she may surprise us and medal, I’m not prepared to stick my neck out and bet on that in the same way that I would bet on the more consistent Veronica or Kerron. Also, I love Shelly Ann Fraser, but I’m still watching her closely before making any comments one way or the other.

Remember Yuliya Nesterenko in Athens in 2004? Were you betting on her two weeks before the start of the Olympic Games? You see why I hesitate to declare that the women’s 100-meter (or any race for that matter) will be a showdown between the USA and Jamaica? Want another example? Who would have known that Francis Obikwelu would have won the silver medal in 2004 in Athens?

No Caribbean athlete is likely to medal in any distance race in Beijing (I still feel that the Cuban Zulia Calatayud has the best chance in the 800-meter race of any Caribbean athlete).

[Jangle]

"But trust me on this: the gold medal in the men's 4x400-meter relay will go to the USA, while the silver medal will go to the Chris Brown-anchored Bahamas team. Jamaica and Great Britain will battle for the bronze medal. Write this men's 4x400-meter prediction down, and I will apologize to you on this forum if I am proven wrong during the finals in Beijing!"

I agree with you 100%. Re: the men's 4 x 400m, I think with Bolt and McFarlane each running a leg if we make it to the finals, we will stand a chance to medal. However, that strongly depends on how they are feeling on the day.

[Historian]

I agree with you 100%. Re: the men's 4 x 400m, I think with Bolt and McFarlane each running a leg if we make it to the finals, we will stand a chance to medal. However, that strongly depends on how they are feeling on the day.

Now it's my turn to agree with you 100%, Jangle! I expect us to make it to the finals, and as you say, "with Bolt and McFarlane each running a leg" then we stand an excellent chance of medalling! In fact, if both men are at their best on that day, we may even get the silver medal behind the USA (the USA is traditionally very hard to beat in the mile relay, as they have always been very deep in 400-meter runners).

[Jangle]

"Rather, my list included people who I felt most likely would medal (notice, for example, the absence of triple jumper Trecia Smith and 400-meter runner Shericka Williams)."

Trecia Smith is not in any shape to even compete for a medal. Shericka is an unknown quantity, but I believe in Franno and his charges. The bulk of our medals will come from the MVP camp. That is why I think the JAAA and Franno needs to work out their issues quickly. It is a blatant disrespect to him for never being included as part of the national setup. However, he also needs to temper his personality somewhat and humble himself.

Here is something that has always boggled my mind over the years. The USA has alwys produced several 400m male runners whom has consistently ran under 45 seconds, while the world has struggled to go below that mark. Why? That also used to be the case with their 100m male runners until most of them were found out to be drug cheats. What's your opinion.

[Karl]

The Caribbean at the Beijing Olympic Games

My Medal Predictions
Compiled and Written by Historian

The four Caribbean countries likely to win any type of medals at the Beijing Olympic Games, in my opinion, are Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Trinidad & Tobago.

Below are my personal predictions.

Jamaica

Jamaica’s history at the Olympic Games can be summarized as, to a great extent, one of missed opportunities and bad luck. To date, Jamaica has won a total of six gold medals during its 60-year participation at the Olympics (400-meter runner Arthur Wint in 1948, the men’s 4x400-meter relay team in 1952, Donald Quarrie in the 200-meter race in 1976, 400-meter hurdler Deon Hemmings in 1996, Veronica Campbell in the 200-meter race in 2004, and the women’s 4x100-meter relay team in 2004).

Looking ahead to Beijing, Jamaica’s best gold medal chances, in my opinion, lie with Usain Bolt, Veronica Campbell-Brown, and the women's 4x100-meter relay team.

Potential Jamaican medalists
Usain Bolt: 100-meter race (world record holder)
Usain Bolt: 200-meter race (fastest 200-meter in the world for 2008)
Asafa Powell: 100-meter race (previous world record holder)
Maurice Smith: decathlon (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)
Veronica Campbell: 200-meter race (2004 Olympic Games champion)
Novlene Williams: 400-meter race (2007 IAAF World bronze medalist)
Kerron Stewart: 100-meter race (fastest time in the world for 2008)
Kerron Stewart: 200-meter race (2007 NCAA 200-meter champion)
Brigitte Foster-Hylton: 100-meter hurdles (2005 IAAF World silver medalist)
Delloreen Ennis-London: 100-meter hurdles (2007 IAAF World bronze medalist)
Women’s Sprint Relay: 4x100-m relay (2004 Olympic Games champion)
Women’s Mile Relay: 4x400-m relay (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)
Men’s Sprint Relay: 4x100-meter relay (2007 IAAF World silver medalist)

Excellent post, boss!

Aside: Mi nuh business wid nun a di odda wan dem -

George Rhoden - 400M GOLD - 1952!

[Historian]

Here is something that has always boggled my mind over the years. The USA has alwys produced several 400m male runners whom has consistently ran under 45 seconds, while the world has struggled to go below that mark. Why? That also used to be the case with their 100m male runners until most of them were found out to be drug cheats. What's your opinion.

Interesting point, Jangle. However, in keeping with my personal practice/policy, I hesitate to speculate on the matter of athletes and performance enhancing drugs. This should not be taken as not wanting to answer your question, but rather as a continuation of my long-held practice of "innocent until proven guilty."

This is why, although I was a fairly regular poster on the Caribbean Track and Field Forum for many years, I never even once made a drug related post on that message board.

[Historian]

Excellent post, boss!

Aside: Mi nuh business wid nun a di odda wan dem -

George Rhoden - 400M GOLD - 1952!

Karl, I cannot believe I made such a massive blunder in forgetting George Rhoden and his excellent gold medal in 1952!! Thank you for pointing out this major error!

My original erroneous comment of "six gold medals" in Jamaica's Olympic history should therefore have read, "seven gold medals."

Thanks once again for the correction and the kind comment, they are truly appreciated, boss!

[Karl]

Karl, I cannot believe I made such a massive blunder in forgetting George Rhoden and his excellent gold medal in 1952!! Thank you for pointing out this major error!

My original erroneous comment of "six gold medals" in Jamaica's Olympic history should therefore have read, "seven gold medals."

Thanks once again for the correction and the kind comment, they are truly appreciated, boss!

Cut us we bleed! Just a human error!

Here are the two gold medals I think are our safest - 200M men - Bolt!
4 x 100M Women!

Now if our baton changing improves, even a wee bit, on that at the World Championships - My god Bolt took the batton in one hand (I think he even changed it from hand to hand? ) and handed it over across his body. ) He was slow away...ran by Spearman...then slowed to put his crazy cross body stunt into action...then there was the final mess up before Asafa sped away...improve on that even a little and it should be here comes another GOLD! - 4 x 100M Men!

...and btw - Marvin Anderson in that relay only started to run after 50 meters!

[Willi]

Didn't Rhoden win the gold in 1952 400m event, beating Herb again?

Bah is looking weaker than expected in the 4x400. Bain is not running well and the rest apart from Chris are 45 high at best.

The brits look dangerous.

Danny Mac is a lock for the bronze, as he is peaking immaculately.

Melaine will win gold as the Red sea is parting for her. Rivals dropping like flies. The biggest danger to her now is Nikeisha Wilson and Ross-Williams.

[Historian]

Re: Olympic Predictions

Didn't Rhoden win the gold in 1952 400m event, beating Herb again?

Bah is looking weaker than expected in the 4x400. Bain is not running well and the rest apart from Chris are 45 high at best.

The brits look dangerous.

Danny Mac is a lock for the bronze, as he is peaking immaculately.

Melaine will win gold as the Red sea is parting for her. Rivals dropping like flies. The biggest danger to her now is Nikeisha Wilson and Ross-Williams.

Willi, thanks for the contribution here.

A couple of the points you made were genuine errors/oversight on my part. In the case of Melaine Walker, that was a major mistake, and I corrected myself above in response to Assasin's reminder. Melaine, who I admire more than words can say, is definitely looking good for the gold! And Nickeshia, hopefully, will medal too.

In the case of George Rhoden, I realized my mistake when Karl reminded me that Rhoden had won the gold in 1952. In the rather hasty typing of my original predictions, I had completely forgotten about Rhoden's outstanding 400-meter run at the second Olympics we competed in.

I agree with you 100% on the Bahamas 4x400-meter relay team. This certainly is not the strong Bahamas team we saw in Osaka and, before that, in Helsinki. Some of the stalwarts, in fact, are definitely under-performing in major ways (Nathaniel McKinney, for example). And yes, the 2008 NCAA Andretti Bain was a far different person than today's Andretti.

Nevertheless, I am still not prepared to predict the chances that Jamaica men's 4x400-meter relay team will have. The other three relay teams, however, are looking good! I still, as usual, have greater faith in the women's 4x100-meter relay team than I do the men. And the 4x400-meter ladies, even in this post-Lorraine Fenton era, are very dependable (just like most Jamaican women are).

I reserve my judgement on Danny McFarlane! Maybe my hesitation is based on his obviously poor hurdling technique, but I hope that you are correct in predicting a medal! It would be nice to see this former 1600-meter relay stalwart win consecutive Olympic Games medals!

[Willi]

Cut us we bleed! Just a human error!

Here are the two gold medals I think are our safest - 200M men - Bolt!
4 x 100M Women!

Now if our baton changing improves, even a wee bit, on that at the World Championships - My god Bolt took the batton in one hand (I think he even changed it from hand to hand? ) and handed it over across his body. ) He was slow away...ran by Spearman...then slowed to put his crazy cross body stunt into action...then there was the final mess up before Asafa sped away...improve on that even a little and it should be here comes another GOLD! - 4 x 100M Men!

...and btw - Marvin Anderson in that relay only started to run after 50 meters!

No relay gold is ever certain. Besides we are about equal with the US women in terms of footspeed. Just slightly faster.